Observational uncertainty, errors, biases, and estimation discrepancies in longwave radiation may be 100 times larger than the entire accumulated influence of CO2 increases over 10 years. This effectively rules out clear detection of a potential human influence on climate.
The anthropogenic global warming (AGW) hypothesis rides on the fundamental assumption that perturbations in the Earth’s energy budget – driven by changes in downward longwave radiation from CO2 — are what cause climate change.
According to one of the most frequently referenced papers advancing the position that CO2 concentration changes (and downward longwave radiation perturbations) drive surface temperature changes, Feldman et al. (2015) concluded there was a modest 0.2 W/m² forcing associated with CO2 rising by 22 ppm per decade.
Again, that’s a total CO2 influence of 0.2 W/m² over ten years.
In contrast, analyses from several new papers indicate the uncertainty and error values in downwelling (and outgoing) longwave radiation in cloudless environments are more than 100 times larger than 0.2 W/m².
In other words, it is effectively impossible to clearly discern a human influence on climate.
1. Kim and Lee, 2019 Measurement errors of outgoing longwave radiation (OLR) reach 11 W/m², more than 50 times larger than total CO2 forcing over 10 years. Cloud optical thickness (COT) and water vapor have “the greatest effect” on OLR – an influence of 2.7 W/m². CO2 must rise to 800 ppm to impute an influence of 1 W/m².
Image Source: Kim and Lee, 2019
2. Kato et al., 2018 Downward longwave radiation (DLR) responds to variability in water vapor and cloud. (CO2 isn’t mentioned in the paper as a factor influencing DLR.) CO2 rose by 20 ppm during 2005-2014, but total DLR was negative (-0.2 W/m²) during this decade, insinuating rising CO2 had no net warming climate impact. Uncertainty in DLR is 6 W/m² per year, whereas CO2 forcing is just 0.02 W/m² per year – 300 times smaller.
Image Source: Kato et al., 2018
3. Wild et al., 2019 Observations vs. model bias/discrepancy ranges in downward longwave radiation span between 22 W/m² to 26 W/m², which is 120 times larger than CO2’s total influence over 10 years.
Image Source: Wild et al., 2019
Image Source: Stephens et al., 2019
Great to see Pat Franks paper here. It is the only one, as far as I can see, that deals explicitly with uncertainty – note very carefully the +/- numbers. These are the precise uncertainties, not as some read, energy flux swings.
Feldmann gave uncertainty values for his time series measurements. Why do you mix them up with completely different uncertainty values?
In contrast? You are comparing apples to oranges, of course there is contrast 😉
And why mention the Patrick Frank “paper”? In case you didn’t know, Patrick Frank has a very interesting view on math / usage of units: https://patricktbrown.org/2017/01/25/do-propagation-of-error-calculations-invalidate-climate-model-projections-of-global-warming/#comment-1459
Should we even bother to look at the other papers you list here?
If you want to believe that … sure.
I have no doubt that you will dismiss and ignore papers that point out model bias estimates of downwelling longwave have estimate (i.e., guess) ranges (22-26 W/m²) that are 120 times larger than the entire alleged CO2 influence over 10 years (0.2 W/m²), or that you will ignore the fact that scientists find downwelling longwave forcing to have DECLINED during 2005-2014 despite a 20 ppm increase in CO2 as the uncertainty in yearly downwelling longwave (6 W/m²) is 300 times larger than the yearly increase in CO2 forcing (0.02 W/m²), or that the errors in outgoing longwave radiation reach 11 W/m², which is 55 times larger than the entired accumulated CO2 forcing over 10 years…because you see the name “Frank” and can find a blog comment from 2017 criticizing a 2019 peer-reviewed paper (?).
Once again, SebastianH, you have nothing substantive to offer in response to the presentation of 5 scientific papers on errors/uncertainty/bias/model failure. All you have is name-smearing and the reflexive If-you-think-this-guy-is-right-you’re-an-idiot blather.
Other than that, excellent comment.
“Other than that, excellent comment” – Kenneth Richard
LOLOL
And that “excellent” content is easy to see, as long as it’s viewed with an electron microscope. Really folks. It’s there. Keep looking.
================================
Just a reminder of what commentor GW wrote a while back about trolls in general…
“Their M.O is:
1) Always have the last word.
2) Never admit they’re wrong.
3) Portray themselves as the teacher and you the student.
4) Do whatever they can to undermine confidence in their opponent (their person rather than their argument).
5) Always misrepresent their opponents position.
I can’t see any end for this climate debate. Since integrity seems to have left the building,…”
…because it’s often a good thing to review the history, in order to see how it applies to ongoing propaganda, or as I like to call it, troll droppings.
Deceit, deflection and mockery are their stocks in trade. At least they are consistent.
Agreed Yonason,
And an excellent comment.
Well done Kenneth Richard!
OH, and thank you Kenneth for continuing to become more knowledgeable and maintaining your cool.
That is of course in contrast to the troll who never leans anything, except perhaps, like all rabid activists of his ilk, how to get ever nastier and more deceitful.
Post Modernism’s goal is to win arguments, in order to impose a concocted ideology on the world. It is not concerned with truth, which is it’s enemy.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rohF6K2avtY&feature=youtu.be&t=4850
Truth sets people free. Post Modernism advances a socialist fantasy, which impoverishes and enslaves. They are the enemies of civilization.
The assumption made is that humans control the level of atmospheric CO2. This is completely wrong!
Nature with the way the oceans and the biosphere react to atmosphere CO2 levels are in command of CO2 levels, not puny, insubstantial humans.
[…] Fonte: No Tricks Zone […]
[…] https://notrickszone.com/2019/11/21/scientists-cite-uncertainty-error-model-deficiencies-to-affirm-a… […]
“Again, that’s a total CO2 influence of 0.2 W/m² over ten years.”
Actually that’s the *instantaneous* average over ten years. It’s constantly present. It’s equal to about 1 kW per football field.
According to the IPCC, the CO2 influence now amounts to <2 W/m² since 1900. Uncertainty in the ocean heat flux amounts to 20 W/m², which is 10 times greater. If the uncertainty is 10 times greater than the alleged forcing itself, we can’t separate the forcing from the uncertainty. So we must believe.
Comparing downwelling longwave forcing from clouds to CO2 forcing shows wholesale domination by cloud cover, effectively ruling out the possibility for CO2 to be a DWLW driver.
Wong and Minnett, 2018
“Clouds generate a radiative difference of…8Xs that of the 3XCO2 spectrum [1200 ppm]”
“cloud forcing produces a total difference in absorbed radiation of ~9 W/m² whereas 3XCO2 forcing only gives 0.5 W/m²”
“the effect of cloud forcing extends [9Xs] deeper” than CO2
The Pat Frank paper was roundly criticized for its poor methods. See Nick Stokes.
NASA has concluded the very same thing that Dr. Frank did: “today’s models must be improved by about a hundredfold in accuracy” if we wish to make climate projections.
Dr. Frank has the uncertainty at 114 times instead of 100 due to clouds.
Nick Stokes?!
HAHAHAHAHAHAHA
https://realclimatescience.com/2017/09/nick-stokes-busted/
https://realclimatescience.com/2017/09/nick-stokes-busted-part-2/
https://realclimatescience.com/2017/09/nick-stokes-busted-part-3/
https://realclimatescience.com/2017/10/nick-stoke-busted-part-4/
Beacuaz, mathematically modeled adjustments based on ad hoc untested assumptions, made in order to force data fit a preordained model are definitely more “real” than actual measurements.
May the farce be with you, too!
Pat Frank dealt professionally with Nick Stokes over at WUWT. Various criticisms and misunderstandings were brought to light.
I don’t know if Kenneth has, but I haven’t blocked yours. If yours were blocked, then it was because they did not meet even the minimum editorial standards. Overall alarmists need to get away from the misconception that they are the Beholders of the Truth and Science Scripture and so treat non-believers like sinners who need to be preached to. People are tired of the “how dare you!” attitudes alarmists walk around with.
I’m guessing you meant that to be directed to the rotten apple, below? Certainly not bonbon.
Oh, dear me!
https://wattsupwiththat.com/2019/09/07/propagation-of-error-and-the-reliability-of-global-air-temperature-projections-mark-ii/
So many quotable items from his article that it’s hard to choose, so I’ll just give a general summation of the effect it SHOULD have on warmunism.
Thanks, bonbon. I wasn’t aware of his work.
Dr. Hill in today’s impeachment hearing provided evidence that AGW is nothing more than a communist hoax designed to destroy the US Fracking Industry. All this climate change nonsense is one huge lie and it was recorded into the Congressional Record.
BOMBSHELL: Dr. Hill Exposes Russia’s Propaganda Campaign to Kill US Fracking Industry
https://co2islife.wordpress.com/2019/11/21/bombshell-dr-hill-exposes-russias-propaganda-campaign-to-kill-us-fracking-industry/
CO2isLife,
Thanks for the heads up. Excellent, maybe the American people will hear this — somehow.
Ditto what tomO said!
Thanks, CO2isLife.
[…] K. Richard, November 21, 2019 in […]
Still blocking other opinions, huh?
Weaklings.
“Still blocking other opinions, huh?”
There’s good precedent for that, eh!
https://motls.blogspot.com/2012/07/have-muller-or-watts-transformed-agw.html#comment-605585774
[…] https://notrickszone.com/2019/11/21/scientists-cite-uncertainty-error-model-deficiencies-to-affirm-a… […]
[…] Scientists Cite Uncertainty, Error, Model Deficiencies To Affirm A Non-Detectable Human Climate Infl… […]
Not only is there no proof of unusual warming, or of CO2 causing any warming at all, there is plenty of proof that the UN is the last agency in the world we should trust. They are utterly morally bankrupt.
https://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2019/11/media-silence-un-human-rights-council-votes-in-country-that-enslaves-black-people-video/
If the post-modern scum want degenerate liars to rule over them, they should move to the worst third world country they can find, and stop trying to force the rest of us to become like them!
If it is not possible to measure a physical quantity supposedly given some physical justification, then how is it possible to claim “existence” of the thing at all?