Dr. Knut Wittkowski, the former head of the epidemiology department at Rockerfeller University, says doing nothing would have been more effective – and ultimately cost fewer lives – than the “containment” strategy now in operation across the world.
By restricting movement and confining people in their homes we are unnecessarily prolonging or widening the curve instead of just flattening it.
The only way to eliminate any respiratory virus is not by developing vaccines or with pharmaceutical intervention, but by natural herd immunity. This means we should be allowing children to attend school.
When 80% of the population becomes infected – and the vast majority of the population won’t even know it because they won’t have symptoms – a common coronavirus like this one can be exterminated within about 4 weeks.
By trying to contain the virus, we are practically ensuring there will be a “second wave” of infections in the Northern Hemisphere fall, as not enough people will have been infected in recent months to exterminate this particular coronavirus strain.
Dr. Wittkowski asserts he is able to talk candidly about what should have been done in response to this COVID-19 outbreak because he is not paid by the government and therefore he is able to “actually do science”.
17 responses to “Epidemiology Professor: Do Nothing, Coronaviruses End In 4 Weeks…Containment PROLONGS Death”
We know that viruses burn out in a population if you just spread it around but a virus as contagious as this one will spread like an out of control fire burning everything in it’s path. It would mean leaving people untreated to die if they are unlucky and live if lucky.
Is that really a civilised strategy ? OR
Do you try to delay it’s progress to give time to find an interim treatment while you wait for a vaccine ?
and yet it hasn’t in Japan that has a high density population and no lockdown.
People in Japan have taken their own action. As a population, Japanese practice good personal cleanliness. Some routinely wear masks when they travel. Most are wearing masks now when outdoors.
There has been a significant reduction in travel in Japan:
Down 41% in that category.
Japan has low infection rates but there is no reduction in the death rate. It is low but has not changed trajectory. South Korea has all but stopped infection.
Good point. It hasn’t proven any different than other seasonal flu in S. Korea or Sweden, either. Also, in all countries 50-75% have no symptoms or only moderate ones. Everyone who is “test-positive” soon becomes antibody-positive.
And it is certainly easier and less destructive to sequester the fragile, not the entire economy. There will be many deaths and ruined lives because of ruined businesses, plans & futures.
All very well if you are willing to accept a higher death rate as the price. Sweden has 79 COVID-19 deaths per 1 M inhabitants, which is four times thate of neighbouring Norway, and ten times that of Finland.
Sweden is also restricting testing to those who are admitted to hospital with symptoms. COVID-19 is ripping through nursing homes there, and personal cannot get PPE.
Sueden has not more apparent mortality than France in which the containment is absolute.
Furthermore, the total cases / population is lower in Sweden than in Norway and way lesser than the French one despite those two countries having adopted lockdown :
Another thing :
– what will be the total over mortality in France, Italy and Spain due to the containment, which lead to a completely destroyed economy, increase in enterpreneurs’suivides (remember the suicide toll in France and Italy in 2008 2011), thousands of delayed surgery, cancer cures and many other serious illnesses not treated in time ?
The Swedish behavior is the most sensible and life saving effective one.
Conversely, acting due to panic and incompetence is the most effective way to kill more people in the long run, in this case, way more than an annual flu season would do.
When we will look backward at the annual statistics, 2020 will look as an almost average flu season which generated the worst economic collapse since WWII.
The Swedish approach is NOT saving lives. From the same site that you referenced:
Sweden has 870 deaths so far. Canada, with nearly four times Sweden’s population, has only 569. Norway, Denmark and Finland, all with roughly half of Sweden’s population, have 113, 247 and 48 deaths espectively.
Deaths per million in Sweden = 86. Deaths per million in Norway, Denmark and Finland are 21, 43 and 9.
Sweden is also lagging in testing. Only those ADMITTED to hospital with symptoms are being tested, it is not enough to only present with symptoms. Tests per million inhabitants for Sweden = 5,416. For Norway, Denmark and Finland are 22,720, 11,176 and 8,005. Sweden is therefore probably under-reporting the actual spread of the disease.
As already explained, confinement has nothing to do with the death ratio (DR = number of deaths / number of confirmed cases), but with the number of cases relative to the population (CR = Total cases / 1M population).
The death ratio DR is related to :
– the age distribution,
– co-morbidity distribution,
– the health care system (Sweden and Norway are very similar in this respect and noof them has been overhelmed by this epidemy),
– the strategy of detection and the delay between first symptoms and treatment, if any at the early stage of the disease.
NOT to the confinement strategy.
With respect to CR, Sweden and Norway are in the same ball park :
– this shows that strict confinement is useless.
Another way to see it :
– the confinement advocates tell us that the confinement allows to “flatten” the confirmed cases curve.
But if we look at the Sweden and Norway daily cases we see that the peaks are :
– Sweden : 726 cases / day ; Sweden : 10,2 millions inhabitants
– Norway : 399 cases / day ; Norway : 5,3 millions inhabitants
The fact is that no curve have been flattened in Norway and here again, the two countries are in the same ball park despite the different adopted strategies with respect to confinement.
With respect to the number of tests :
– since they are not randomized (Norway does a lot of systematic tests on people at risk, elderly in nurseries, etc., even without symptoms), this tells nothing about the probability of infection among the all population. Thus we can’t conclude that Sweden is lowering its cases.
You can instead use the “active cases” relative to the population :
– this is a good indicator of the epidemy impact on the population.
And here again, the two countries are in the same ball park relative to their population.
Knut is another dingbat who cannot see the bleeding obvious. Let run its course, CV19 would decimate the global economy rather than the short pause that is occurring in some countries now.
EU response economically is hopeless. It surely puts Italexit on the horizon. Italy has had better support from Russia and China than its EU partners. The unelected administrators of the EU are as bad as the unelected administrators of the UN.
In civilized society we don’t leave people to die.
The good Doctor has a Computer Science PhD from Uni Stuttgart?
Wittkowski: “Well, I’m not paid by the government, so I’m entitled to actually do science.”
Well, Computer Science is an oxymoron, and here we have the same problem as with climate, except this time lives are at high risk.
The same modelling virus, yet again.
Problem is, political immunity from such deadly viruses as Geopolitics, modelling and monetarism is rendered weak to non-existent from decades of indoctrination.
The best report I have seen, from Prof. Dr. med. Dr. h.c. Paul Robert Vogt, on Switzerland :
8 warnings, science ignored, the lethality, and lot’s more.
The modelling projections of the deaths are so wrong.
The mathematicians should look more closely to the climate models.
They predict with “great accuracy” the future.
One would almost think: the climate scientists are the clever ones.
Measured temperature increase has been about half what the average of the models has predicted. They have not accounted for measured water vapor increase which is MORE THAN POSSIBLE from feedback from temperature increase. https://watervaporandwarming.blogspot.com
If you are going to say that 1. shutting down the economy saves lives (doubtful), and 2. we ought therefore to shut it down,
then you must logically say that we should shut down the economy for every Winter’s seasonal flu.
In most, if not all countries, seasonal flu within the past 5 years has cost more deaths than the new virus.
Yes there is a spike in deaths w the new virus AND w the seasonal flu. Compare the spikes. http://www.euromomo.eu/index.html The map indicates the spikes, and the graph below allows you to compare spikes in other years.
However, be aware that the death statistics are increasingly being manipulated to make this virus appear to cause more deaths:
IN THE US, a briefing note from the CDC’s National Vital Statistics Service read as follows
“It is important to emphasize that . . . Covid19 should be reported for all decedents where the disease caused or is presumed to have caused or contributed to death.”
Updated April 3 to: “In cases where a definite diagnosis of Covid-19 cannot be made, but is suspected or likely. . . it is acceptable to report Covid-19 on a death certificate as “probable” or “presumed.” In these instances certifiers should use their best clinical judgement in determining if a covid-19 infection was likely.” [This means in the absence of a test-positive]
IN BRITAIN National Health Service guidance for filling out death certificates:
“if before death patient had symptoms typical of covid19 infection, but the test result has not been received, it would be satisfactory to give ‘covid19’ as the cause of death, and then share the test result when it becomes available. In the circumstances of their being no swab, it is satisfactory to apply clinical judgement.”
Further, according to a NEW UK law the body need not be seen by a coroner. Any medical doctor can sign the cause of death, EVEN IF THEY HAVE NEVER SEEN THE BODY LIVING OR DEAD & THERE IS NO TEST. What can “clinical judgement” mean in this circumstance?
IN MINNESOTA a State Congressman-Doctor received instructions on filling out the death certificate. Video interview: https://off-guardian.org/2020/04/10/watch-dr-scott-jensen-reveals-ridiculous-covid19-guidance/
PS: The simple knowledge that society is being manipulated for clandestine ends ought to make you suspicious of the benevolence of those ends, no?
SENEX 10, you said “All very well if you are willing to accept a higher death rate as the price. Sweden has 79 COVID-19 deaths per 1 M inhabitants, which is four times thate of neighbouring Norway, and ten times that of Finland.”
But, you know, you haven’t established causality. You’re assuming a causal link between Sweden’s not practicing full lockdown and reported higher death rates.
In the US it’s possible that lockdown may prevent herd immunity this Winter & that we may as a consequence have a second wave in the Autumn.
I’ve not seen any expert opinion that flattening the curve saves lives– only political ones. These are the same people who say that an increase in test-positives is exponential, when in fact it’s showing the same 10-15%. They pretend not to know that the denominator (number of tests performed) is significant.