False Alarm: IPCC Models Say A Warming Antarctica REDUCES Sea Levels -0.8 Of A Meter By 3000

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The IPCC-endorsed anthropogenic global warming (AGW) paradigm finds a warming Antarctica results in more precipitation locked up as ice on the continent. This contributes to reducing sea levels: a -1.2 mm/year−1 mitigation of sea level rise over the next 80 years.

In the 4th IPCC report, Working Group 1 (the physical science) reported that as global temperatures rise,GCMs [models] indicate increasingly positive SMB for the Antarctic Ice Sheet as a whole because of greater accumulation.” This means that by 2100 Antarctica “would contribute 0.4 to 2.0 mm yr−1 of sea level fall.” Over the next 980 years, Antarctica’s ice accumulation will reduce sea levels by nearly a full meter (-0.8 m by 3000).

Image Source: IPCC AR4

The position that Antarctica will significantly reduce sea levels over the next century due to rising anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions has been endorsed elsewhere in the scientific literature (Krinner et al., 2007, Palerme et al., 2017).

Image Source: Krinner et al., 2007

Image Source: Palerme et al., 2017

Scientists even conclude that the Antarctic reduction in sea levels from net ice accumulation supersedes the ice water melt contribution to sea level rise for the Greenland ice sheet over the next 80 years. This means a warming climate actually results in “not significantly different from zero” net sea level rise contribution for Greenland and Antarctica combined (Huybrechts et al., 2004).

Image Source: Huybrechts et al., 2004

Indeed, the East Antarctica surface has been gaining mass in recent decades (Nature Geoscience, 2018) to the point that the mass gains in East Antarctica exceed melting (from beneath ice shelves) losses for the rest of the continent. This means that Antarctica as a whole is currently “taking 0.23 millimeters per year away” from sea level rise (NASA, 2015). Reassuringly, it would require “prolonged periods of lasting hundreds of thousands to millions of years to induce even partial retreat” according to a Nature Geoscience consensus statement (2018).

Image Source: Nature Geoscience, 2018

Image Source: NASA, 2015

Antarctica has actually been reducing sea levels for longer than just the last several decades. The long-term trend in mass gains exceeding losses and contributing to sea level fall has actually accelerated slightly since 1900. Thomas et al. (2017) report “a net reduction in sea level of ∼ 0.02 mm decade−1 since 1800 and ∼ 0.04 mm decade−1 since 1900 AD” due to climate warming.

Image Source: Thomas et al., 2017

One of the most fundamental warnings by climate change activists is that global warming leads to catastrophic sea level rise. The physical science, however, fails to lend support for this claim.




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6 responses to “False Alarm: IPCC Models Say A Warming Antarctica REDUCES Sea Levels -0.8 Of A Meter By 3000”

  1. Aussie

    The reduction in sea levels due to warming was also, before it became disasterously woke, a prediction of the Australian CSIRO. Same idea, more warmth, more evaporation and more accumulation of ice in Antarctica.

  2. dm

    Global warming morphed into climate change. Now, the warming associated with climate change will add more ice to Antarctica than it removes from the Arctic, thereby LOWERING sea levels!!!

    What’s next? Atmospheric CO2 will freeze Gaia because atmospheric CO2 is dry ice’s gaseous form?

  3. S.K.

    The under lying premise that the earth is warming is very ambiguous in my opinion.

    The surface temperature in the US has been gradually falling for the last 120 years. Tony Heller of realclimatescience.com regularly posts comparisons between measured and altered data.

    If the starting point of reference was the MWP than the trend is probably even more pronounced.

    Melting an ice cube in a container full of water provides the similar conclusion as the models at fraction of the cost.

    The UN/IPCC’s models are a waste of money and the organization has zero credibility.

  4. oebele bruinsma

    “The UN/IPCC’s models are a waste of money and the organization has zero credibility.” I fully agree, but our politicians unfortunately do not.
    I’m more of a ” Dr. Zharkova man” weighing the waning and growing of the sun’s magnetic fields as an important factor controlling the climate. Therefore I prepare for a cooling, thank you.

  5. False Alarm: IPCC Models Say A Warming Antarctica REDUCES Sea Levels -0.8 Of A Meter By 3000 | Un hobby...

    […] K. Richard, March 15, 2021 in […]

  6. M E

    Thanks.Precipitation as snow forms ice fields and ice is hard to melt. Antarctica does not see much sun for a large part of the year, I imagine, and even long days of summer have the sun low on the horizon so solar heating must be low too. Volcanic melting and warmer sea currents where the ice sheets meet the sea are what I think melts ice and snow in the Antarctic. So we must concentrate on switching sea currents. A new job for the Climate Czars ! 🙂 Just as impossible as changing climates and probably a longer lasting period of employment for retired politicians.

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