Three new studies affirm the increase in absorbed solar radiation associated with decreased reflection by clouds (albedo) has been the “root cause” of the positive Earth Energy Imbalance and global warming since the early 2000s.
Scientists (Loeb et al., 2021) have determined the rather uncertain positive trend in Earth’s Energy Imbalance (EEI) from 2005 to 2019, 0.5 W/m² ±0.47 W/m² per decade−1, is “primarily due to an increase in absorbed solar radiation associated with decreased reflection by clouds.”
CERES satellite data indicate clouds and surface albedo account for 89% of the absorbed solar radiation trend in the 21st century, whereas anthropogenic greenhouse gases account for but a tiny fraction of the trends in combined absorbed solar radiation and greenhouse effect forcing (reductions in emitted thermal radiation) during this period.
This very small human emissions/greenhouse gas impact is represented by the red “Other” (“trace gases”) bars in the graph below. In emitted thermal radiation, graph (e) shows the greenhouse gas impact is effectively offset by the cloud influence; both factors are cancelled out by temperature changes. This leaves the increase in absorbed solar radiation shown in graph (d) due to natural variations in clouds and surface albedo (SFC) as the primary driver(s) of top-of-atmosphere (TOA) flux forcing during the last two decades.
Image Source: Loeb et al., 2021
Other scientists (Dübal and Vahrenholt, 2021) have also concluded that the positive TOA net flux (+1.42 W/m²) from increasing downwelling shortwave (SW) facilitated by a drop in cloudiness has been the “major driving effect,” “dominating influence,” and “major heating cause” explaining the 2001-2019 ocean heat content increase (240 ZJ).
The authors note these CERES satellite observations “conflict with the assumption further global warming originates mainly from the LW [longwave] radiation capture caused by greenhouse gases, i.e., a decline in outgoing LW.” In fact, the LW or greenhouse effect impact has been negative; it has contributed a net cooling influence (-1.1 W/m²) over the last two decades.
Image Source: Dübal and Vahrenholt, 2021
The summarizing text from another new study (Ollila, 2021) bluntly asserts the substantial increase in downwelling SW radiation from 2000-2019 demonstrates “there are natural climate drivers that have rapid and significant temperature impacts exceeding the anthropogenic drivers,” and that any temperature increase since 2015-’16 “cannot be due to anthropogenic reasons.”
Image Source: Ollila, 2021
These newer studies affirming the 21st increase in absorbed solar radiation has driven modern warming are further substantiated by a 2020 Nature journal paper (Delgado-Bonal et al., 2020) extending the positive (+3 W/m²) cloud-albedo SW impact back to 1980.
[S]hortwave radiation is the main driver in the dynamics and plays a major role in the energy balance by affecting the longwave radiation field.”
“Our research supports the idea that clouds and albedo, which ultimately determine the SW radiation, are variables of the utmost importance for current climate change, in agreement with previous research about the changes in stratocumulus or energy imbalance in the last four decades for example. An increase in cloud coverage of 0.1 would, on average, lead to a 7% increase in spectrally integrated global average reflectance of shortwave radiation.”
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The changes in sw radiation clearly are closely associated with changes in ENSO. In particular the strong el nino 2014 to 2016. To me this is huge, hopefully papers will follow linking this change in SW radiation to ENSO.
If the clouds affect the SW/LW then what drives the cloud cover? If ENSO & other ocean cycles affect the clouds, what drives ENSO etc? And what drives whatever drives the drivers..
The CC mob build models where the GHG effect is amplified by changes in water vapour, humidity, cloudiness etc. which sounds like you have shown. But these models are not verified with empirical evidence from repeatable experiments. But the natural processes appear more inclined to rebalance (more negative feedbacks) than to induce positive feedbacks (tipping points).
Still many unknowns.
What drives ENSO is Sunlight. Sunlight causes winds to blow at the equator from Eastern Pacific to Western Pacific. This is neutral ENSO. If these winds traveling from Eastern Pacific to Western Pacific become strong enough it is then named a La nina. During a La nina the winds at the equator push water (warmed by sunlight) towards the Western Pacific. Where the wind causes the warm water to heap up. It heaps up around New Guinea and Indonesia. The La nina breaks down when a weather event like a cyclone breaks it down. If the La nina was strong enough, the winds at the equator change direction and blow from west to east and the warm water heaped up on the Western Pacific sloshes back towards the east across the Pacific at the equator. If this is strong enough it is called an El nino. It is all driven by Sunlight. See Bob Tisdale’s site for the best description I have seen.
These studies are probably correct and valid, and yes they undermine the CO2 warming story. But they could be tautological – that is, a logical closed loop. They’re saying “earth’s heat budget changed because earth’s heat budget changed”.
solar wind drives climate, not CO2
https://solarclimate.tumblr.com/post/662931197224271872/solar-wind-drives-climate-not-co2
[…] Related: 2001-2019 Warming Driven By Increases In Absorbed Solar Radiation, Not Human Emissions […]
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This has been in the data for a long time. And not just since 2001. Since at least 1985:
https://okulaer.com/2018/03/24/the-data-sun-not-man-is-what-caused-and-causes-global-warming/
https://okulaer.com/2018/03/24/the-data-supplementary-discussions/
https://okulaer.com/2018/06/26/verifying-my-near-global-1985-2017-olr-record/
[…] Kenneth Richard connected the three studies on the website NoTricksZone. […]
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More albedo and the Earth cools.
Less albedo and the Earth warms.
No albedo and the Earth cooks in the 394 K/121 C/ 250 F solar wind much like the Moon.
That is NOT what the Radiative Green House Effect theory predicts.
That is what Nikolov, Kramm and UCLS Diviner say.
Actually, that the albedo cools the earth is sufficient alone to CONTRADICT and NEGATE RGHE theory!
The “extra” warming energy downwelling (violates SLoT) from the so-called GHGs allegedly originates with the surface upwelling as a BB. (tfk_bams90) As demonstrated by experiment, the gold standard of classical science,
That
Is
Not
Possible.
https://principia-scientific.org/debunking-the-greenhouse-gas-theory-with-a-boiling-water-pot/
If either of these points stands, greenhouse theory fails and man caused climate change collapses.
Version 1.0 102021
[…] Kenneth Richard connected the three studies on the website NoTricksZone. […]
[…] Kenneth Richard connected the three studies on the website NoTricksZone. […]
[…] Kenneth Richard connected the three studies on the website NoTricksZone. […]
[…] Writing for NoTricksZone, author Kenneth Richard commented on the study by Loeb and his colleagues. He said that based on data from the Clouds and the Earth’s Radiant Energy System (CERES), both clouds and the Earth’s surface account for 89 percent of global warming. On the other hand, greenhouse gases only account for “a tiny fraction” of this warming. […]
[…] Writing for NoTricksZone, author Kenneth Richard commented on the study by Loeb and his colleagues. He said that based on data from the Clouds and the Earth’s Radiant Energy System (CERES), both clouds and the Earth’s surface account for 89 percent of global warming. On the other hand, greenhouse gases only account for “a tiny fraction” of this warming. […]
[…] a paper for NoTricksZone, author Kenneth Richard commented on Loeb and colleagues’ […]
[…] in the main cause climate change, upon which the most recent research continues to cast doubt. Solar activity enhanced by certain meteorological patterns point to having a much larger role than emissions. That […]
[…] in the main cause climate change, upon which the most recent research continues to cast doubt. Solar activity enhanced by certain meteorological patterns point to having a much larger role than emissions. That […]
[…] 2001-2019 Warming Driven By Increases In Absorbed Solar Radiation, Not Human Emissions […]