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A Warmer Climate, Less Sea Ice, Sea Levels 5-16 Meters Higher Than Today An ‘Optimum’ For Penguins

By on 26. May 2022

A new study (Gao et al., 2022) suggests Antarctica’s sea levels (Ross Sea) were more than 16 meters higher than today ~5,000 years ago and still 5.5 meters higher ~3,000 years ago. Penguins thrived with the warmer climate and diminished sea ice.

Image Source: Gao et al., 2022
“Since 1.5 kyr BP, with further contraction of the nesting areas the overall colony extent of Inexpressible Island decreased until 300 yr BP, when the ACT zones were rapidly occupied. After 300 yr BP the colony extent rapidly increased towards the present level (Fig. 5b). The overall colony extent exhibited a three-step increase, at 4.0-3.5 kyr BP, 3.0-2.0 kyr BP and ~1.5 kyr BP, respectively. After 1.5 kyr BP the colony extent slightly decreased but the low temporal resolution limits the inference about the modern age. One of the limitations of the RSL-derived approach is the assumption that penguins always occupied all the newly exposed areas in no more than 500 yr as the sea level dropped and the occupation persisted for thousands of years toward present. Secondly, the RSL fall in the last 3000 yr is as small as 5.5 m (Baroni and Hall, 2004). The slowdown of RSL fall prevents accurate age estimation.”
“From ~7 to ~5 kyr BP, RSL [relative sea level] was above 16 m a. p.s.l. [above present sea level]”
Huang et al. (2009) also summarized that climate optimum conditions were commonly recorded between ~4.5 and 2.5 kyr BP from circum-Antarctica (Hodgson et al., 2004; Ingolfsson, 2004; Kirkup et al., 2002). For the Ross Sea region, studies have revealed that the mid-Holocene was a period of relatively warm and suitable climate, with elevated lake levels (Lyons et al., 1998) and well developed microbial mats in the McMurdo Dry Valleys (Wagner et al., 2006), increased marine organic carbon deposition (Licht et al., 1998), and depleted d18O in carbonate shells from inshore regions (Emslie et al., 2003).”
“Between ~4 and 3 kyr BP when coastal sea-ice was at a minimum, the Ross Sea experienced the “penguin optimum” (Baroni and Orombelli, 1994); between ~3 and 1.5 kyr BP when coastal sea-ice expanded, the Ross Sea penguin population declined sharply, and the Scott Coast was widely abandoned.”

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13 responses to “A Warmer Climate, Less Sea Ice, Sea Levels 5-16 Meters Higher Than Today An ‘Optimum’ For Penguins”

  1. A Warmer Climate, Less Sea Ice, Sea Levels 5-16 Meters Higher Than Today An ‘Optimum’ For Penguins – Climate- Science.press
    A Warmer Climate, Less Sea Ice, Sea Levels 5-16 Meters Higher Than Today An ‘Optimum’ For Penguins – Climate- Science.press 26. May 2022 at 6:58 PM |

    […] A Warmer Climate, Less Sea Ice, Sea Levels 5-16 Meters Higher Than Today An ‘Optimum’ Fo… […]

  2. RoHa
    RoHa 27. May 2022 at 6:36 AM |

    Save the penguins! Warm up Antarctica!

  3. Richard Greene
    Richard Greene 27. May 2022 at 11:53 AM |

    Sea level nay have been one to three meters higher 5,000 years ago when the Holocene Climate Optimum ended and the average temperature was believed to be slightly higher than today. The estimated thermal expansion from a degree or two C. warmer ocean could not have caused the sea level anywhere to be 16 meters higher than today.

    This study is completely different
    than other sea level reconstructions
    of the past 20,000 years.

    It is baloney.

    [ad hominem insults removed]

    1. Kenneth Richard
      Kenneth Richard 28. May 2022 at 4:49 AM |

      This study is completely different than other sea level reconstructions of the past 20,000 years.

      It is baloney.

      It’s rather common knowledge that relative sea level differentials of 20 to 40 m above present sea level during the Holocene are primarily confined to the polar regions, or where isostatic rebound in response to the elimination of ice sheet mass was most pronounced. This is commonly recorded in the scientific literature. For example, sea levels around Greenland were 36 m above today’s levels in the early Holocene per Souza et al., 2021. The study even says the highest sea levels of the Holocene, or the Holocene Marine Limit, has been dated to ~9000 years ago. At that time deposits of sea shells on the southwest coast of Disko were as much as “~70 to 80 m above present sea level.”

      Another study (Steffen et al., 2020) has relative sea level 32 m higher than today around Greenland 13,800 years ago.

      Another 2021 study indicates relative sea level was 90 m higher near B.C. Canada 14,500 years ago.

      “We determine that central Douglas Channel was ice-free following the Last Glacial Maximum by ∼14,500 BP and RSL was at least 90 m higher than today. Isostatic rebound caused RSL to fall to 21 m asl by 11,500 BP”

      A 2011 study had Antarctica’s sea levels 15 meters higher than today 9,000 years ago.

      Sea levels were reportedly about 40 meters higher than today 15,000 years ago along the coasts of western Norway (Bondevik et al., 2019).

      And now a study published just 3 weeks ago has a figure showing Antarctica’s sea levels were 18 to 30 m higher about 7,000 years ago.

      So, in other words, Richard’s contention that this study is “baloney” because it reports relative sea levels were out of the range he considers realistic, or “completely different” from other reconstructions, would appear to not be supported by the evidence found in the peer-reviewed scientific literature.

      1. Richard Greene
        Richard Greene 28. May 2022 at 4:58 PM |

        Writing a study and getting it peer reviewed and published does not automatically create truth. May I remind you that climate alarmism id supported by hundreds of peer reviewed published stusies. Studies that talked a about a coming global warming crisis from CO2 existed in the late 1950s.

        There is no claim among conventional climate scientists of sea level ever reaching 16 meters higher than today, at any time in the pasty 200,000 years.

        https://www.e-education.psu.edu/earth107/node/1496

        Approximately 125,000 years ago, the sea level wis believed to be approximately 8 meters higher than it is today. This was during the Sangamonian Interglacial, the last time the north polar ice cap completely melted. After this peak in sea level, ice returned to the planet.

        The global average absolute sea level on out planet was NOT 16 meters higher during the Holocene Climate Optimum from 5000 to 9000 years ago. That fact does not change because a few people published “studies”.

        Your problem is that you only look for local climate reconstructions that you think refute the consensus global temperature and global sea level trends = confirmation bias.

        Climate reconstructions are very rough estimates of local climates.
        They can not be verified by real time observations. They are not accurate real time measurements of actual temperatures or sea levels.

        Most important:
        These local climate reconstructions have no value
        for predicting the future global climate.

        So while you are wasting your time, and ours, quoting climate reconstructions, the Climate Howlers are making scary predictions of the future climate. Presenting local climate reconstructions DOES NOTHING to refute the coming climate crisis scaremongering.

        The climate on our planet has always changed
        — that’s what the climate reconstructions tell us.
        So what?

        The important question is how the global climate
        will change in the next 50 to 100 years.

        Not local or regional climate long ago
        — global climate in the future.

        The very rough estimates of long past climates, called reconstructions, have no value in refuting climate alarmism.

        1. Kenneth Richard
          Kenneth Richard 29. May 2022 at 9:21 AM |

          “There is no claim among conventional climate scientists of sea level ever reaching 16 meters higher than today, at any time in the pasty 200,000 years”

          Apparently you’re confusing relative sea level changes (indicated by markings on rocks, shell remains on paleo beaches 6 m higher than today’s beach heights, etc.) with eustatic sea level changes, the latter being the absolute volume of water in the global ocean basins. While the eustatic sea levels may have only reached 2-3 meters above today’s levels between 5,000 and 7,000 years ago, the former values of relative sea level could indeed reach heights of 20, 30, 40 m (and more) above the present. This is because of vertical land motions, or VLMs, can change due to tectonic uplift at rates that easily exceed total changes attributed to the volume of water in ocean basins.

          Sea levels surrounding Glacier Bay (AK) had been falling by -40 mm/yr in the last century.

          “a regional pattern of sea level change surrounding Glacier Bay was found, with a peak rate of −40 mm yr−1 near the mouth of the bay.”

          If this trend were to continue at -4 meters per century like this, within 400 years from now it could be said the relative sea level surrounding Glacier Bay is today 16 m higher than it will be 400 years from now. Does this mean global-scale sea levels will have dropped 16 m? Of course not. It only refers to the relative sea level changes at this particular location.

          “Your problem is that you only look for local climate reconstructions that you think refute the consensus global temperature and global sea level trends”

          No, I don’t claim that relative sea level changes at specific locations are representative of the global eustatic sea level changes. I’ve tried explaining the distinction to you here, but apparently you are more interested in writing about me. I really have no interest in wasting my time responding to your latest round of misinterpretations and personalized comments.

          1. Richard Greene
            Richard Greene 29. May 2022 at 5:09 PM |

            Climate Howlers Hysteria:
            A climate crisis is coming in a few decades.
            Nut Must be accomplished by 2050.

            Kenneth Richard’s interest:
            The relative sea level in the Ross Sea was higher a few thousand years ago.

            Global average temperature in the past century?
            = KR doesn’t care

            Global average absolute sea level in past century?
            – KR doesn’t care.

            KR’s effort to refute climate change scaremongering
            – None
            KR quotes guessed estimates of long past local climates, that could be completely wrong, and have no relevance to current global climate scaremongering.

            Absolute sea level is important for climate change discussions and has been relatively stable for the past 6,000 years.

            Relative local sea level is only important for people who live at or near sea level. Who in living in Antarctica that should be concerned about relative sea level? Penguins?

            You can present 100 studies. I still do not believe the Ross Sea sea level was 16 meters higher than today.

            I don’t take climate reconstruction studies as “the gospel” — the claims are being made by people who did not live in the time period they are guessing about. Their claims, and climate prediction claims, can be wrong, and often are wrong.

          2. Richard Greene
            Richard Greene 29. May 2022 at 5:12 PM |

            In my comment a moment ago.
            “Nut” must be accomplished by 2050,
            was meant to be “Nut Zero”
            Nut Zero is my name for Net Zero.

  4. oebele bruinsma
    oebele bruinsma 27. May 2022 at 4:57 PM |

    Those were the days: “Between ~4 and 3 kyr BP when coastal sea-ice was at a minimum, the Ross Sea experienced the “penguin optimum” (Baroni and Orombelli, 1994)

  5. drumphish
    drumphish 28. May 2022 at 6:10 AM |

    Maybe a comet of water impacted the earth and a sea level rise occurred.

    Hey, don’t forget about Lake Missoula!

    “About 12,000 years ago, the valleys of western Montana lay beneath a lake nearly 2,000 feet deep. Glacial Lake Missoula formed as the Cordilleran Ice Sheet dammed the Clark Fork River just as it entered Idaho. The rising water behind the glacial dam weakened it until water burst through in a catastrophic flood that raced across Idaho, Oregon, and Washington toward the Pacific Ocean. Thundering waves and chunks of ice tore away soils and mountainsides, deposited giant ripple marks, created the scablands of eastern Washington and carved the Columbia River Gorge. Over the course of centuries, Glacial Lake Missoula filled and emptied in repeated cycles, leaving its story embedded in the land.”

    https://www.glaciallakemissoula.org/

    Had to have an impact, maybe more than one Lake Missoula will cumulatively cause a rise in sea levels. Some serious climate change going on in Montana. Water, like rust, never rests.

    The lilacs have finally budded out, a good 15 days behind May 10, 1987 when lilacs were at peak bloom.

    Cooler springtime temps this year compared to 1987.

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