Scientists have once again affirmed the 2000-2020 total greenhouse effect (longwave) forcing has been declining in recent decades just as absorbed solar radiation has been increasing due to cloud albedo modulation. The latter explains the net positive Earth Energy Imbalance (EEI) and consequent global warming during this period.
Recently we detailed the satellite-observed decline in total (“all sky”) greenhouse effect forcing since 1985 and the concomitant increase in surface solar radiation over the last 35 years.
Yet another scientific paper has been published affirming a -0.23 W/m² per decade−1 decline in total longwave forcing (the net impact due to changes in greenhouse gases and cloud cover) and a +0.66 W/m² per decade−1 (+1.3 W/m²) increase in absorbed solar radiation during the 21st century (March 2000 to March 2020).
The net absorption of solar energy that has occurred due to the reduction of solar radiation reflected to space by clouds and aerosols is “by far the largest contribution to the increasing rate of change of EEI.” In other words, the impact of CO2 and other greenhouse gas forcing together with cloud has contributed a net cooling influence that has been soundly superseded by the increasing solar radiation trend.
Image Source: Stephens et al., 2022
The increasing trend in absorbed surface solar radiation has been observed over the entire satellite period – not just since 2000.
Herman et al. (2013) documented a +2.7 W/m² in solar energy due to the declining cloud and aerosol albedo trend from 1979-2011.
Image Source: Herman et al., 2013
Pinker et al. (2005) reported a +1.6 W/m² per decade−1 trend in global surface solar radiation from 1983 to 2001.
Image Source: Pinker et al., 2005
The global warming that has occurred since the 1980s can be fully explained by the increasing trend in solar radiation and not the (net decreasing) greenhouse effect forcing trend. These observations undermine the claims of proponents of anthropogenic global warming.