New Paradigm-Shifting Study Finds Annual CO2 Flux Is Driven By Temperature-Dependent Sea Ice Flux

Annual carbon dioxide (CO2) and methane (CH4) change rates lag behind changes in sea ice extent by 7 months and 5 months, respectively. This robust correlation is consistent with the conclusion that CO2 (and CH4) changes are responsive to temperature, not the other way around.

It is commonly believed that the annual “squiggle” of the Mauna Loa CO2 cycle variations are driven by hemispheric seasonal contrasts in terrestrial photosynthesis.

But scientists (Hambler and Henderson, 2022) instead find it is variation high latitude temperatures affecting sea ice extent changes that dominate as drivers of the CO2 (and methane) annual fluxes, not photosynthesis.

They affirm temperature (T) changes lead CO2 change rates by about 7-10 months, suggesting the causality direction is T→CO2, and not CO2→T.

Temperature also drives sea ice peak melt vs. accumulation rates. This cause-effect directionality can also be clearly seen in analyses of sea ice flux vs. annual CO2 rate changes.

“The phase relationship between temperature and carbon dioxide has been examined to help elucidate the possible direction of causality and the lags we find between timeseries are consistent with carbon dioxide being the response variable.”
“Carbon dioxide is very strongly correlated with sea ice dynamics, with the carbon dioxide rate at Mauna Loa lagging sea ice extent rate by 7 months. Methane is very strongly correlated with sea ice dynamics, with the global (and Mauna Loa) methane rate lagging sea ice extent rate by 5 months. Sea ice melt rate peaks in very tight synchrony with temperature in each Hemisphere.”

Image Source: Hambler and Henderson, 2022

13 responses to “New Paradigm-Shifting Study Finds Annual CO2 Flux Is Driven By Temperature-Dependent Sea Ice Flux”

  1. Government By Slogan – Newsfeed Hasslefree Allsort

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  2. Petit_Barde

    This welcome article reminds me a presentation by Pr Murry Salby on the surface condition (which mainly depends on T and which is the main driver of the derivative of atmospheric CO2 concentration) :

    and the sensitivity of North Atlantic CO2 emission/absorption with respect to T :

    1. Richard Greene

      Murray Salby is a science fraud just like Ed Berry

  3. New Paradigm-Shifting Study Finds Annual CO2 Flux Is Driven by Temperature-Dependent Sea Ice Flux - Climate-

    […] New Paradigm-Shifting Study Finds Annual CO2 Flux Is Driven By Temperature-Dependent Sea Ice Flux […]

  4. voza0db

    Again… CO2 is just a mere TOOL used by the Secular Ruling Families & Billionaires on Their Quest to CHANGE THEIR PLANET as They see fit.

    Another simple example:

    The Council and the European Parliament reached a provisional political agreement on stricter CO2 emission performance standards for new cars and vans. The purpose is to move towards a zero-emission mobility.

    Pending a formal adoption, the co-legislators agreed to a:

    55% CO2 emission reduction target for new cars and 50% for new vans by 2030 compared to 2021 levels
    100% CO2 emission reduction target for both new cars and vans by 2035.


    Yes, this research reminds us of the UN IPCC’s unfounded attack on human emissions of CO2. The blunder of alarmist science is they confused cause and effect, thinking correlation meant causation, missing that CO2 lag… “based on fundamental logic and the concepts of cause and effect, an epistemological examination of the geochemical analyses performed on the Vostok ice cores invalidates the marked greenhouse effect on past climate usually assigned to CO2 and CH4.”
    Further, German climatologist Professor Dr. Horst-Joachim Lüdecke recently took data from two independent studies and superimposed them.

    The result shows the long-claimed atmospheric CO2-global temperature correlation doesn’t exist.

    1. Richard Greene

      You are confused

      For natural climate changes, CO2 levels RESULT from natural changes in ocean temperatures, per Henry’s Law.

      For manmade CO2 emissions, CO2 levels CAUSE changes in the global average temperature, affecting land surfaces faster than ocean surfaces.

      The ice core data do not include manmade natural climate changes, not manmade CO2 3emissions

  6. Sylvia

    My frogs only lay frog spawn in about January/February each year. This because there is more OXYGEN in the water so when the tadpoles hatch they can breathe. So it follows that warm water has more CO2 or less oxygen in it!!!! People need to open their eyes and look at nature to see what is happening on our planet ??!!

  7. APL

    @Sylvia: There is more oxegen in the water for the exact same reasons there is more CO2…. it is because the water is colder. It is interesting to see the climate pseudo-science rubbing off though.

  8. Richard Greene

    Cold water holds more CO2 than warm water. Leave a cold glass o soda pop outdoors on a hot day and it will eventually go “flat” as dissolved CO2 is outgassed into the atmosphere.

    Cold water can hold more dissolved oxygen than warm water. In winter and early spring, when the water temperature is low, the dissolved oxygen concentration is high. In summer and fall, when the water temperature is high, the dissolved-oxygen concentration is often lower.

    We’ve been living with global warming since 1975. It’s been pleasant and harmless. We don’t need to study frogs to know that.

    People, animals and plants prefer warm weather. “Our” hummingbirds fly huge distances south to get away from our cold Michigan winters … although not as cold as our winters were in the 1970s. We love global warming here in Michigan!

    I have only visited the UK twice and never thought it was too hot there — I imagine they generally love global warming too.

  9. Michael Snow

    can you give us an update on the state of German citizens vis a vis heating/energy costs?

    Was it a year or two ago you had an article about 300,000 (?) Germans having problems paying their utility bills.

  10. Joe Peck

    How is this not front page of every climate skeptic website. Does this not potentially negate the entire concept that humans are the source of increasing CO2 in the atmosphere?!?

  11. Fred Haynie

    The freezing and melting of sea ice is the cause of the within year variation of measured atmospheric concentrations of CO2. Cold open polar water is the ultimate sink for atmospheric CO2. The evidence of this is an extremely good statistical correlation between the variation of CO2 concentration and sea-ice concentration. Using monthly average data, there is no lag. The temperature of the open water does not change much but it’s area does.

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