It is claimed that an additional 60-75 W/m² of absorbed solar radiation can only produce a climate warming of 4-5°C. Doubling CO2 since pre-industrial times (280 to 560 ppm) is said to result in an additional 3.7 W/m² increase in radiative forcing. However, it is inconsistently claimed this ~20 times smaller value will also lead to 3-5°C climate warming.
Anthropogenic global warming proponents claim that the addition of an accumulated 1.82 W/m² CO2 surface forcing since 1750 (ensuing from the 280 to 400 ppm CO2 increase) is predominantly responsible for the alleged 1.2°C rise in global surface temperatures in the last 150 years.
But scientists have concluded the Last Interglacial (LIG, about 130,000 to 115,000 years before present) had an additional 60-75 W/m² direct shortwave forcing relative to today (Diamond et al., 2021).
Image Source: Diamond et al., 2021
But despite the additional 60-75 W/m² insolation forcing, it is simultaneously claimed the LIG was only 4-5°C warmer than today with 5 meters higher-than-present global sea levels (Dalton et al., 2022). This is nearly the same amount of warming claimed to ensue from a doubling of CO2 from 280 to 560 ppm – despite the roughly 20 times smaller forcing associated with that CO2 increase (3.7 W/m²).
Image Source: Dalton et al., 2022
How is it that a 60-75 W/m² insolation forcing yields about the same relative warming as 3.7 W/m²?
5 responses to “A Glaring Inconsistency In The Claimed Forcing Values Driving Past Versus Present Climate”
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It is important to grasp that this is not an exerccise in correcting errors. Simple incompetence would have a random element: from time to time a ‘wrong’ answer would appear. This never happens. The answer presented always, always supports the existing narrative provided by the cult leaders.
Having said that, full marks for hammering away and showing it to be nonsense.
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