Snowfan here reports how the ECMWF expects up to 3 meters of fresh snow in the Alps by the 7th of November.
Meanwhile, Joe Bastardi also sees signs that Europe’s winter will likely be a cold one (normal to below-normal)
First we look at snowfall for the Alps over the next 10 days:
Image cropped at Kachelmannwetter.
This would mean an early start to the ski season.
According to Snowfan, Europe in 2023 so far has been widespread wet and Northern Europe has been quite cold.
Winter to follow period of heavy precipitation
And at his latest Saturday Summary here, Joe Bastardi warns of a “major stratospheric warming event” shaping up over the Arctic for December, which “really ups the ante for the winter”.
As for Europe, heavy rains are forecast for the early part of November, and Joe thinks this is a signal for cold weather will follow, similar to 2009:
Cropped from WeatherBell
“I think the next 2 months, November and December, are below normal overall,” says Joe. “We got a cold winter for Europe this year.”
So stay tuned. Joe plans to present his next winter forecast update next Saturday.
In the meantime, my firewood is ready and dry.
UPDATE:
This German meteorologist reports NOAA is forecasting a very mild 2023/24 winter. Who shall we believe?
I started the wood stove last Thursday morning because a week of freezing was forecast. Seems that will ease this coming Wednesday. Low temp, so far, has been -8°C.
[central WA State, USA]
NOAA shows a warm winter here
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/CFSv2/htmls/euT2me3Mon.html
[…] – Veteran Meteorologist Joe Bastardi: “We Got A Cold Winter Coming Up For Europe” […]
“Who shall we believe?”
My money’s on Bastardi.
https://www.weatherbell.com/video/the-saturday-summary-132149628?full
Hmm, let’s check his forecast from last year:
https://notrickszone.com/2022/11/27/ace-forecaster-bastardi-somethig-we-used-to-see-in-1970s-warns-of-spectacular-cold/
The reality?
“… this year’s winter [2022/23] temperatures in the Northern hemisphere were above the long-term average”
https://www.meteoblue.com/en/blog/article/show/40110_2022%2F2023+winter+in+the+Northern+hemisphere
And you still rely on his forecasts? Amazing…
You bet I continue to rely on him, and on his scientifically sound reason for why temps are rising…
https://www.weather-bell.com/video/saturday-summary-640?full
He makes a lot fewer mistakes than many others.
One data point is not sufficient to define a curve.
Also, if you follow his weekly update, a free service, he on many occasions explicitly states that he doesn’t question that the world has warmed, only the alleged mechanism of said warming.
Furthermore, when one area is unusually warm, another is often unusually cold. Unlike warmunistas, Joe doesn’t cherry pick one area to highlight while ignoring the rest.
NOTE – your meteoblue link requires acceptance of cookies, which is unacceptable to me. I only allow cookies from sites I trust, and I’ve never heard of that one before. If you can produce another that isn’t so intrusive, I’ll be happy to look at it. Otherwise, no.
So, as I’ve already stated, I trust him more than anyone with an agenda other than forecasting the weather as accurately as possible.
Joe’s forecast (which seems to have disappeared from my comment above):
-Ace Forecaster Bastardi: “Something We Used To See In 1970s”, Warns Of “Spectacular Cold”
Joe has become “very concerned” about the coming cold, which is going to be a real problem for not only people in the US, but around the globe.-
Hotter than EVER – not!
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=D1Cerfqu4dU
Or, the actual reliable temperature data begs to differ.
It also helps to look at the “warming” in context.
https://www.c3headlines.com/
Hint – no “tipping point” in sight. Not even any “disruption” of any consequence.
Supplement to JMurphy: I agree 100% with his comment! I too remember more than one forecast of a cold one in 2022/2023.
On the other hand, with every forecast by NOAA (beside, they predicted a strong hurricane season this year – followed by hardly any hurricane in reality) you should change the sign of it. The chance to be right then is bigger than the chance that the NOAA prediction becomes true.
A Sioux meets a cowboy cutting some wood
The cowboy asks, “Hey fellow, can you tell me if it’s going to be cold this winter?” The Indian says “Yes. It will be cold.”
The Indian swings by again watching the cowboy cutting wood. The cowboy asks, “really, pal, how cold and how long you think this winter will be?” “It will be very cold and very long!” the Sioux answers.
The following day, the Indian comes back and the cowboy is going crazy again preparing for winter.This one goes, “you seem so sure about your forecast. What did you see that gave you the feeling that this winter will be so hard and cold?”
“Sioux have a say”, the Indian goes, “when white man cuts lot of wood, winter is long and cold.”