Munich Record December Snow Depth Shows That Weather Surprises Us Again And Again

X-account Kunstliche Intelligenz here reports on Germany’s recent heavy snowfalls in Munich, which surprised experts and media and sent them scrambling for an explanation. 

Snow quantities: Climate models are patient. By Kunstliche Intelligenz 

Chart shows the max. snow depth reached and date occurred each year in Munich since 1954. Source: Kunstliche Intelligenz

It’s snowing a lot in Germany and climate researchers already feel compelled to modify their explanations in an effort to maintain interpretative sovereignty. A brief summary of the contradictions that are becoming apparent.

1. Polar vortex: cooling leads to more snow
2021 already saw a lot of snow in Europe. Climate researchers argued it was snowing more because it was getting colder in northern Europe despite global warming. The behavior of the polar vortex was cited as the cause (strong/weak polar vortex and jet stream). [1]

Evidence: climate change leads to less snow
However, the amount of snow is actually decreasing in Europe due to climate change, as satellite analyses show. From 1973/74 to 2022/23, the amount of snow fell continuously by a total of 20.4%. [3]

2. Humidity: warming leads to more snow
In 2023, there will again be a lot of snow in Germany. Another explanation is making rounds: due to climate change, the temperature is rising, the atmosphere is absorbing more moisture and as a result it is also snowing more, albeit at higher temperatures. [2]

Evidence: New snow records in Germany
(See chart) The evaluation of historically measured maximum snowfall amounts shows that the snowfall in Munich on December 2 is an all-time December record with 44 cm. [4] If you analyze the data, you can see that the maximum snowfall from 1954-1974 was particularly high with an average of 25 cm. This fits in with the drop in temperatures between 1940 and 1975, which gave rise to speculation that a new ice age was imminent. [5] Since 1975, on the other hand, the maximum amount of snow has averaged 19 cm with no clear trend.

Conclusion: Depending on the evaluation and explanation, you can interpret anyything into the snow data and argue for or against global warming. But if you realize that weather and climate are chaotic systems that are fundamentally unpredictable and that the assumption of a monocausal relationship that is supposed to dominate everything (CO2 concentration and temperature) is ultimately just a model assumption and nothing more, the cognitive dissonance immediately fizzles out. Like all other weather phenomena, the amount of snow in 2024 will not take into account any extremely simplified and under-complex computer modeling, but will surprise us again and again.

[1] https://dw.com/en/cold-winter-polar-vortex/a-56534450 
[2] https://tagesschau.de/faktenfinder/schnee-100.html
[3] https://x.com/Climatologist49/status/1731052502668427647?s=20
[4] https://x.com/meteomabe/status/1730924979674370114?s=20
[5] https://welt.de/wissenschaft.html“

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