Climatic cyclic history repeats itself, even if you ignore it.
And it does so because it is so powerful that it neither allows itself to be suppressed nor appeased. Guest writer Matti Vooro presents here his latest work on why the future is looking cooler. This is also the view of a growing number of scientists. Expect cooling over the next 30 years. And look at Bastardi’s 8-minutes of education.
SIGNS OF GLOBAL COOLING
- by Matti Vooro
For about 2 decades we have been told to urgently act against unprecedented global warming or else there will be fiery gloom and doom for the world. Yet, the opposite seems to be happening.
The entire planet has stopped warming since 1998 and, more significantly, has started to cool since 2003. Instead of warning people of cooler weather for the next 30 years, there’s still the distinct false sense of expectation of unprecedented warming. People and governments are being urged to go entirely in the wrong direction for the wrong reasons – and at a potentially horrendous price.
Just look at what happened in UK. Ten years ago Britons were told to expect global warming only and that snow would be a thing of the past. Yet the opposite has arrived, three winters in a row. This winter it crippled the entire nation for nearly a month in December 2010.
Periods of cooling and warming in the past
Alternating periods of warm and cooler weather have been with us as far back as our climate records go. Some of the past cooler periods have been more severe than others, like the Sporer, Maunder and Dalton Minimums. Professor Don Easterbrook has documented some 20 such cool periods over the last 500 years, see Figure 1.
Easterbrook also said:
” “Climate changes in the geologic record show a regular pattern of alternate
warming and cooling with a 25-30 year period for the past 500 years.”
• “There is a strong correlation between solar changes, the PDO, glacier
advance and retreat, and global climate allow us to project a consistent
pattern into the future.”
• “Expect global cooling for the next 2-3 decades that will be far more
damaging than global warming would have been.”
Figure 2 shows the kind of cooling Professor Easterbrook projects into the future:
So why are the IPCC and AGW science so silent about the possibility of global cooling? It’s because the IPCC never had a mandate to study all causes of global warming – only the man induced component. Now other scientists are finding that the man-made warming seems to be dwarfed by natural planetary factors. Here is what IPCC said what Europe should expect in the future:
Annual mean temperatures in Europe are likely to increase more than the global mean. The warming in northern Europe is likely to be largest in winter, and largest in the Mediterranean area in summer. The lowest winter temperatures are likely to increase more than average winter temperature in northern Europe, and the highest summer temperatures are likely to increase more than average summer temperature in southern and central Europe.”
The last winters are showing the contrary is true. Let’s take a look at the last period [26 years] of cooler weather in Europe [1962-1987] and the most frequent climate variables present during that period:
Last UK and European cold period, what were the more common climate factors present?
An analysis winter temperatures for Central England’s last cold period of 1962 -1987 shows that 20 of 26 years were below the winter normal of about 4.8°C. Of these 20 years, negative winter AOs were present 90% of the time [18 years], negative winter AMOs were present 85% of the time [17 years ], negative winter NAOs were present 65% of the time [13 years] and negative winter PDOs were present 45% of time [9 years].
It would appear that for UK, the presence of negative or cool AO, AMO and NAOs was significant in predicting below normal winters and these below normal winters happened more frequently – about 2 out of every 3 years during this cooler period. The ENSO sign was fairly equally distributed, 5 La Nina years, 8 El Nino years and 7 neutral years. El Nino years seem to set up more negative winter AOs, which allow more cold Arctic air to come south [like the 2009/2010 winter].
What does the UK Met Office say about global cooling?
The UK MET Office says that a decade of cooling is possible but only once in every 8 decades. And so they have already played their card as the past decade 2001-2010 had a flat temperatures trend. So by their predictions, there will be no further periods of cooling or flat global temperatures for another 8 decades. In order for the Met Office prediction of a temperature rise of 4° C by 2060 to occur, our current rate of warming trend would have to 18 times faster than today (Using data from WOOD FOR TREES).
What about the warm year 2010?
It is a no-brainer to have an extra warm year like 2010 during a strong El Nino. The year 1998 was also such a warm El Nino year. These are natural causes that drive up the temperatures during the El Nino years. Yet there has been no statistical warming since 1995. Also we have had 4 El Ninos during the last 9 years. This is more frequent than in the past when they happened once every 4-7 years. Eight of the last 10 years have been affected by the natural occurring El Nino to some degree. Thus the prime reason for the warm decade and the warm the 2010 winter in Canada is the El Nino and PDO. This has very little to do with global warming or increases in greenhouse gas emissions.
For Canada, if you exclude the El Nino winters of 2003, 2005, 2007, and 2010 the Canadian winter temperature departure [anomaly] from the 1948-2010 norm has actually been dropping during the last 10 years since 2000 from 2.5C in 2000 to 0.3C in 2009, the last very cold winter. Some regions like the Prairie Provinces and Northwestern region have seen as much as 7.1 C drop in winter temperatures from the 2006 to 2009 winter.
What is behind our changing climate?
The answer appears to be the natural variability of ENSO events and the regular variation in the Pacific Ocean and Atlantic surface temperatures as measured by the PDO and AMO indices, changes in the Arctic Oscillation or AO, volcanic activity, and solar cycles. Let’s look back at quite recent history of these real climate makers.
What is the impact of ENSO, PDO, and AMO cycles?
During negative or cool phases of PDO and AMO, there are more La Ninas than during the positive phases. This contributes to more cold winters and colder years during negative PDO.
During positive or warm phase of PDO and AMO, there are significantly more El Ninos. This is why there is more warming when the PDO is positive.
Global warming resulted from the near simultaneous occurrence of the warm or positive PDO and the warm or positive AMO. The PDO is a residual or after affect of ENSO events in the Pacific. Both the PDO and AMO effects may have part or all of their origins in and SST cycles and the deep ocean circulation pattern called MOC or Meridional Overturning Circulation which flows through all the major oceans.
The current negative or cool PDO and the La Nina are why we have had all the recent cold weather. The La Nina’s may have directly contributed to the Red River Flooding of 2009 and the recent flooding in Australia and Brazil. For typical effects on North American climate of both AMO and PDO see the following referenced paper http://www.pnas.org/content/101/12/4136.full.pdf+html
Another key factor which will soon [ in 1-4 years] start to contribute to the global cooling of US and Canadian east coasts, the western coast of Europe and the Arctic will be the cooling of the North Atlantic as measured by the Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation or AMO. This cooling started after 2005. But the AMO is affected by ENSO cycles, especially El Ninos, so we saw a brief warming of AMO during 2010. Climate history shows that global cooling was strongest when both the PDO andAMO were both simultaneously in the negative or cool mode – like in 1964-1976 and again 1916 to 1923. The AMO has been in the positive or warm mode since 1994. Its cycle is not as predictable as the 60 year PDO cycle, but more recently it followed the pattern of the PDO wait a lag [about a 20-year lag].
Its cycles have been quite variable. During its last cycle it was in the negative or cool mode for 30 years (1964-1994] and its cycle seems to be related to the Meridional Overturning Circulation [MOC] and the changes in the Atlantic Thermohaline Circulation [THC]. There are a number of estimates when it will again go negative. My best estimate is about 2015 based on the most frequent past intervals of around 20 years and the cooler waters that feed the MOC from the Southern Oceans. Once it does go negative, the global temperature anomalies may drop further until about 2030, the Arctic temperature may cool further and the Arctic ice extent should increase again.
What is the latest evidence of global cooling?
Planetary cycles cooling
– PDO has gone negative and cooling since Sept ember 2007 [probably for the next 20 -30 years]
– AMO has peaked and has started its decline again since July 2010. It is anticipated to go negative or cooling by 2015
– SOI has been high positive [around +20] since July [predicts cold weather 5-7 months later]
– AO and NAO are now more frequently at higher negative levels [AO had record monthly low of -4.266 in Feb 2010 and nearly -5 in December 2010]
– Solar activity continues low at near minimum levels
– Most Global mean temperature anomaly data sets show recent dropping anomalies in 2010
– Ocean SSTs are dropping
– Ocean heat content rise has leveled off for the last 6 years [major decline in the North Atlantic Ocean heat content]
World climate cooling
– Europe and Asia have had three cold winters in a row [new low record colds set 2010 in many regions]
– European annual temperature anomalies [land] have been dropping since 2007
– UK [CET] annual temperatures have been dropping since 2006[4years]
– 2010 was the coldest year [[8.83 C] for Central England UK since 1986 or in 14 years [8.74 C]
– UK Winter temperatures have been dropping since 2007 [4 years]. Last two winters were record cold in UK
– North American annual temperatures have been cooling since 2006
– Canadian winters have been cooling since 2001[El Nino winters excluded]
– US had one of its worst winters in 2010[15th coldest since 1895] despite an El Nino
– Record snow or new cold temperatures set in December 2010
– Sweden had coldest December in 110 years,
– UK had coldest December since in 120 years
– Germany had coldest December in 41 years
– Ireland had coldest December since 1881 or in129 years
– Similar cold records set in the Middle East, the Korean peninsula, the Caribbean, U.S. and Canadian Pacific Northwest, China, and India
– 2010 had the 2nd most snow extent for Northern Hemisphere since the1978/1979 winter [2008 had the 3rd highest since 1967]
– 2010 had the highest winter snow extent since 1967 and the extent has been climbing since 2006
– 5 of the 11 highest snow extents for Eurasia have happened since 2003[2003 was the2nd highest since 1967]
What is happening to global mean temperature anomalies?
Let’s do some fact-checking about our current global mean temperature anomaly.
The HADCRUT 3GL GLOBAL temperature anomalyshown in Figure 3 has been flat now for ten years in a row andis actually decreasing at least square trend slope of -0.0026 C per year. IPCC forecast called for an increase of 0.21 C per decade [+.0021C /year] for each of the next two decades [from 2000]. They predicted an anomaly of 0.6 by 2010. The actual is 0.392 C and it is falling.
Something seems very wrong with the IPCC science and their predictions as the actual temperatures are going in the opposite direction to what they predicted despite the CO2 changes and this is only after the first decade of their forecast
Here are the global mean temperatures from 4 different datasets(least square trend line slope Jan-2001 to Oct-2010, last 118 months – Wood for Trees):
HADCRUT 3GL – 0.0026 C/year
RSS: + 0.0034 C/ year
GISS: + 0.0080 C/year
UAH: +0.0093 C/year
Composite + 0.0044 C/year
Can any sane people detect four thousandths of a degree C change per year and measured it across the entire globe? This is how absurd the global warming alarmism game has gone.
The historical Global Temperature Anomaly [GMTA] can be best visualized to consist of a linear anomaly component rising on the average rate of 0.0059 C per year since 1880] or 0.0045 C /year going back 150 years, according to IPCC figures plus an OSCILLATING component having a sinusoidal-like function with an amplitude of approximately 0.3C These two anomalies add and interact to produce an approximate 60 year cycle with alternating 30 years of cooling with 0.42C temperature drop and 30 years of warming with a 0.77°C temperature rise.
This pattern is somewhat modified by short term rises or drops in temperature due to ENSO cycles (EL NINO raises and La NINA lowers), major volcanic eruptions (VE4+) plus any changes in solar output. These short term disruptions can be significant (+/- by as much 0.40 to 0.5C outside the equation model).
What are the AGW forecasts for the future?
IPCC forecast: 2.4 to 6°C by 2100, or 0.02 to 0.06°C/year, which is 4 to 13 times the current observed rate of rise.
Met Office forecast: 4°C by 2060, which is 0.08°C/year [18 times the current observed rate of rise.
What do non-AGW scientists project?
There is a growing list of over 30 different international climate scientists, academics, meteorologists, climate researchers and engineers who have researched this topic and who disagree with AGW and IPCC forecasts of unprecedented warming, and are projecting cooler weather for the next 1-3 decades. Few are even AGW supporters but disagree with warming projected for the next decade (See http://notrickszone.com/2010/12/28/global-cooling-consensus-is-heating-up-cooling-over-the-next-1-to-3-decades/) .Each of the writers gives their views about why they feel global cooling is ahead during the next 10-30 years. These authors expand on the natural factors affecting our future climate especially the impact of the possible reduced solar cycles in the future which this writer did not expand on at this time for brevity sake.
What do past planetary cycles project?
We just peaked on the last warm cycle in the early 2000’s and may have now started a 30 year cool cycle which will drop the global temperature anomaly by 0.42°C by 2030. There will still be some warm El Ninoyears as well but the overall trend will be cooler than the last 30 years. Based on the colder anomaly of 0.06C by 2030, the temperatures are likely to be similar to those of the late 1970’s and early 1980’s. The Hadcrut3 temperature anomaly is as of Sept/2010 0.391°C and it could drop to 0.16°C by 2020 and probably bottom out at about 0.06°C by 2030. The IPCC prediction is for 0.2°C increases for each of the next two decades andthe anomalies to be around 0.8°C by 2020. The two different projections, namely the natural planetary cycle forecast and the IPCC forecast are rapidly diverging.
Figure 4 is a graph of past and projected global mean temperature anomaly rise as presented by Syun-Ichi Akasofu (Founding Director and Professor of Physics, International Arctic Research Center, University of Alaska):
Figure 5 below is taken from a paper called Predictions of Global Man Temperatures & IPCC Projectionsby Girma Orssengo and was previously posted on WUWT. It is a simple mathematical model or over-fit empirical model based on curve fitting for the Global Mean Temperature Anomaly[GMTA] based on Hadcrut3. The equation or model is not calculated from any measurable parameters other than actual past global temperature anomalies. Although it is not calculated from any physics, energy mechanisms or physical realities underlying the equation, it is still an informative graph to some degree. It is based on actual past empirical data [hadcrut3] since 1880.
There is no guarantee that any future projection of this graph will actually materialize [neither is there evidence that the current agw computer models have any credibility yet either]. However, the graph below may still be useful. It is like the “poor man’s “global temperature model and indicates the following;
* The graph is a general climate trend indicator only based on historical past pattern [ is the cycle heading up or down?]
* There exists a repetitive 60 year climate cycle of 30 years of warming followed by 30 years of cooling.
*There could be two cooling cycles before we reach 2100 which may dwarf and over-ride any greenhouse gas warming
*It is probably more useful and accurate in the short term [next 10-30 years]
Figure 6 is a graph showing the possible future GMTA anomalies by year by showing the HISTORIC NATURAL PLANEATARY CYCLES and the middle IPPC projected scenario of 3.0°C rise by 2100]. Some of the other IPCC scenarios see temperatures rising in the range of 2.4 to 5.3°C by 2100 and which would have even steeper rates of temperature rise.
See the web page reference and paper below by Girma Orssengo for further details of the GMTA FORECAST model and equation and especially Figure 3 on page 4 illustrating the GMTA graph for the years 1880 -2100. Much of the GMTA information comes from his paper posted on WUWT http://wattsupwiththat.files.wordpress.com/2010/04/predictions-of-gmt.pdf
Why there could be less warming in the 21 st century than the past 2O TH Century [quote from the above Girma Orssengo paper]
…the century [20th] started when the oscillating anomaly was at its minimum near 1910 with GMTA of –0.64 deg C and ended when it was at its maximum near 2000 with GMTA of 0.48 deg C, giving a large global warming of 0.48+0.64=1.12 deg C. This large warming was due to the rare events of two global warming phases of.77 deg C each but only one cooling phase of 0.44 deg C occurring in the 20th century, giving a global warming of 2*0.77-0.42=1.12 deg C.
In contrast to the 20th century, from Figure 3, there will be nearly no change in GMTA in the 21st century. This is because the century started when the oscillating anomaly was at its maximum near 2000 with GMTA of 0.48 deg C and will end when it is at its minimum near 2090 with GMTA of 0.41 deg C, giving a negligible change in GMTA of 0.41-0.48=-0.07 deg C. This negligible change in GMTA is due to the rare events of two global cooling phases of 0.42 deg C each but only one warming phase of 0.77 deg C occurring in the 21st century, giving the negligible change in GMTA of 0.77-2*0.42=-0.07 deg C.
Noteworthy is that none of the predictions based on planetary cycles project global temperatures to go up by 2 or 4 or 6 degrees C as forecast by the IPCC or Met Office. These forecasts based on planetary cycles like those of Professor Easterbrook and Professor Syun-Ichi Akasofu predict a rise of less than 1 C by 2100, similar to what happened during the past 20th century.
Also Dr Roy Spencer of University of Alabama and Professor R. Lindzen of MIT feel that the global temperature rise might only be around 1°C by the end of the current century.
During the next 10-30 years we may experience cooler weather rather than unprecedented warming only. It does not mean that all of the next 10 -30 years will be colder, as there will be some warm El Nino years as well, but the overall trend for the next 2-3 decades may be cooler rather than unprecedented warming that AGW supporters claim.
There is no one on this planet who can tell with any certainty what the climate will be like 1 year ahead, next decade and most certainly not the 100 years. The purpose of this article was to show that there are other possible climate futures which do not necessarily require major reduction of carbon dioxide emissions up front. Another version of this climate which is based on natural planetary cycles may manifest much more likely with much more global impact and could occur much sooner than unprecedented global warming. Some of the winters could be quite severe like we saw during the latter part of the 1970’s. The initial observed signs from the real world are that the cooling option has already started in many parts of the globe.
Matt Vooro, P. Eng
Also refer to the following for further information about global cooling option