Signs Of Strengthening Global Cooling

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Blue planet

Climatic cyclic history repeats itself, even if you ignore it.

And it does so because it is so powerful that it neither allows itself to be suppressed nor appeased. Guest writer Matti Vooro presents here his latest work on why the future is looking cooler. This is also the view of a growing number of scientists. Expect cooling over the next 30 years. And look at Bastardi’s 8-minutes of education.  


    by Matti Vooro

For about 2 decades we have been told to urgently act against unprecedented global warming or else there will be fiery gloom and doom for the world. Yet, the opposite seems to be happening.

The entire planet has stopped warming since 1998 and, more significantly, has started to cool since 2003. Instead of warning people of cooler weather for the next 30 years, there’s still the distinct false sense of expectation of unprecedented warming. People and governments are being urged to go entirely in the wrong direction for the wrong reasons – and at a potentially horrendous price.

Just look at what happened in UK. Ten years ago Britons were told to expect global warming only and that snow would be a thing of the past. Yet the opposite has arrived, three winters in a row. This winter it crippled the entire nation for nearly a month in December 2010.

Periods of cooling and warming in the past

Alternating periods of warm and cooler weather have been with us as far back as our climate records go. Some of the past cooler periods have been more severe than others, like the Sporer, Maunder and Dalton Minimums. Professor Don Easterbrook has documented some 20 such cool periods over the last 500 years, see Figure 1.

Figure 1

Figure 1

Easterbrook also said:
” “Climate changes in the geologic record show a regular pattern of alternate
warming and cooling with a 25-30 year period for the past 500 years.”
• “There is a strong correlation between solar changes, the PDO, glacier
advance and retreat, and global climate allow us to project a consistent
pattern into the future.”
• “Expect global cooling for the next 2-3 decades that will be far more
damaging than global warming would have been.”

Figure 2 shows the kind of cooling Professor Easterbrook projects into the future:

Figure 2


So why are the IPCC and AGW science so silent about the possibility of global cooling? It’s because the IPCC never had a mandate to study all causes of global warming – only the man induced component. Now other scientists are finding that the man-made warming seems to be dwarfed by natural planetary factors. Here is what IPCC said what Europe should expect in the future:

Annual mean temperatures in Europe are likely to increase more than the global mean. The warming in northern Europe is likely to be largest in winter, and largest in the Mediterranean area in summer. The lowest winter temperatures are likely to increase more than average winter temperature in northern Europe, and the highest summer temperatures are likely to increase more than average summer temperature in southern and central Europe.”

The last winters are showing the contrary is true.  Let’s take a look at the last period [26 years] of cooler weather in Europe [1962-1987] and the most frequent climate variables present during that period:

Last UK and European cold period, what were the more common climate factors present?

An analysis winter temperatures for Central England’s last cold period of 1962 -1987 shows that 20 of 26 years were below the winter normal of about 4.8°C. Of these 20 years, negative winter AOs were present 90%  of the time [18 years], negative winter AMOs were present 85% of the time [17 years ], negative winter NAOs were present 65% of the time [13 years] and negative winter PDOs were present 45% of time [9 years].  

It would appear that for UK, the presence of negative or cool AO, AMO  and NAOs was significant in predicting below normal winters and these below normal winters happened more frequently – about 2 out of every 3 years during this cooler period. The ENSO sign was fairly equally distributed, 5 La Nina years, 8 El Nino years and 7 neutral years. El Nino years seem to set up more negative winter AOs, which allow more cold Arctic air to come south [like the 2009/2010 winter].

What does the UK Met Office say about global cooling?

The UK MET Office says that a decade of cooling is possible but only once in every 8 decades. And so they have already played their card as the past decade 2001-2010 had a flat temperatures trend. So by their predictions, there will be no further periods of cooling or flat global temperatures for another 8 decades. In order for the Met Office prediction of a temperature rise of 4° C by 2060 to occur, our current rate of warming trend would have to 18 times faster than today (Using data from WOOD FOR TREES).

What about the warm year 2010?
It is a no-brainer to have an extra warm year like 2010 during a strong El Nino. The year 1998 was also such a warm El Nino year. These are natural causes that drive up the temperatures during the El Nino years. Yet there has been no statistical warming since 1995. Also we have had 4 El Ninos during the last 9 years. This is more frequent than in the past when they happened once every 4-7 years. Eight of the last 10 years have been affected by the natural occurring El Nino to some degree. Thus the prime reason for the warm decade and the warm the 2010 winter in Canada is the El Nino and PDO. This has very little to do with global warming or increases in greenhouse gas emissions.

For Canada, if you exclude the El Nino winters of 2003, 2005, 2007, and 2010 the Canadian winter temperature departure [anomaly] from the 1948-2010 norm has actually been dropping during the last 10 years since 2000 from 2.5C in 2000 to 0.3C in 2009, the last very cold winter. Some regions like the Prairie Provinces and Northwestern region have seen as much as 7.1 C drop in winter temperatures from the 2006 to 2009 winter.

What is behind our changing climate?

The answer appears to be the natural variability of ENSO events and the regular variation in the Pacific Ocean and Atlantic surface temperatures as measured by the PDO and AMO indices, changes in the Arctic Oscillation or AO, volcanic activity, and solar cycles. Let’s look back at quite recent history of these real climate makers.

Table 1

What is the impact of ENSO, PDO, and AMO cycles?

During negative or cool phases of PDO and AMO, there are more La Ninas than during the positive phases. This contributes to more cold winters and colder years during negative PDO.

During positive or warm phase of PDO and AMO, there are significantly more El Ninos. This is why there is more warming when the PDO is positive.

Global warming resulted from the near simultaneous occurrence of the warm or positive PDO and the warm or positive AMO. The PDO is a residual or after affect of ENSO events in the Pacific. Both the PDO and AMO effects may have part or all of their origins in and SST cycles and the deep ocean circulation pattern called MOC or Meridional Overturning Circulation which flows through all the major oceans.

The current negative or cool PDO and the La Nina are why we have had all the recent cold weather. The La Nina’s may have directly contributed to the Red River Flooding of 2009 and the recent flooding in Australia and Brazil. For typical effects on North American climate of both AMO and  PDO see the following referenced paper

Another key factor which will soon [ in 1-4 years] start to contribute to the global cooling of US and Canadian east coasts, the western coast of Europe and the Arctic will be the cooling of the North Atlantic as measured by the Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation or AMO. This cooling started after 2005. But the AMO is affected by ENSO cycles, especially El Ninos, so we saw a brief warming of AMO during 2010. Climate history shows that global cooling was strongest when both the PDO andAMO were both simultaneously in the negative or cool mode – like in 1964-1976 and again 1916 to 1923. The AMO has been in the positive or warm mode since 1994. Its cycle is not as predictable as the 60 year PDO cycle, but more recently it followed the pattern of the PDO wait a lag [about a 20-year lag].

Its cycles have been quite variable. During its last cycle it was in the negative or cool mode for 30 years (1964-1994] and its cycle seems to be related to the Meridional Overturning Circulation [MOC] and the changes in the Atlantic Thermohaline Circulation [THC]. There are a number of estimates when it will again go negative. My best estimate is about 2015 based on the most frequent past intervals of around 20 years and the cooler waters that feed the MOC from the Southern Oceans. Once it does go negative, the global temperature anomalies may drop further until about 2030, the Arctic temperature may cool further and the Arctic ice extent should increase again.

What is the latest evidence of global cooling?

Planetary cycles cooling
– PDO has gone negative and cooling since Sept ember 2007 [probably for the next 20 -30 years]
– AMO has peaked and has started its decline again since July 2010. It is anticipated to go negative or cooling by 2015
– SOI has been high positive [around +20] since July [predicts cold weather 5-7 months later]
– AO and NAO are now more frequently at higher negative levels [AO had record monthly low of -4.266 in Feb 2010 and nearly -5 in December 2010]
– Solar activity continues low at near minimum levels
– Most Global mean temperature anomaly data sets show recent dropping anomalies in 2010
– Ocean SSTs are dropping
– Ocean heat content rise has leveled off for the last 6 years [major decline in the North Atlantic Ocean heat content]

World climate cooling
– Europe and Asia have had three cold winters in a row [new low record colds set 2010 in many regions]
– European annual temperature anomalies [land] have been dropping since 2007
– UK [CET] annual temperatures have been dropping since 2006[4years]
– 2010 was the coldest year [[8.83 C] for Central England UK since 1986 or in 14 years [8.74 C]
– UK Winter temperatures have been dropping since 2007 [4 years]. Last two winters were record cold in UK 
– North American annual temperatures have been cooling since 2006
– Canadian winters have been cooling since 2001[El Nino winters excluded]
– US had one of its worst winters in 2010[15th coldest since 1895] despite an El Nino
– Record snow or new cold temperatures set in December 2010
– Sweden had coldest December in 110 years,
– UK had coldest December since in 120 years
– Germany had coldest December in 41 years
– Ireland had coldest December since 1881 or in129 years
– Similar cold records set in the Middle East, the Korean peninsula, the Caribbean,  U.S. and Canadian Pacific Northwest, China, and India

Snow extent
– 2010 had the 2nd most snow extent for Northern Hemisphere since the1978/1979 winter [2008 had the 3rd highest since 1967]
– 2010 had the highest winter snow extent since 1967 and the extent has been climbing since 2006
– 5 of the 11 highest snow extents for Eurasia have happened since 2003[2003 was the2nd highest since 1967] 

What is happening to global mean temperature anomalies?

Let’s do some fact-checking about our current global mean temperature anomaly.

Figure 3

The HADCRUT 3GL GLOBAL temperature anomalyshown in Figure 3 has been flat now for ten years in a row andis actually decreasing at least square trend slope of -0.0026 C per year. IPCC forecast called for an increase of 0.21 C per decade [+.0021C /year] for each of the next two decades [from 2000]. They predicted an anomaly of 0.6 by 2010. The actual is 0.392 C and it is falling.

Something seems very wrong with the IPCC science and their predictions as the actual temperatures are going in the opposite direction to what they predicted despite the CO2 changes and this is only after the first decade of their forecast

Here are the global mean temperatures from 4 different datasets(least square trend line slope Jan-2001 to Oct-2010, last 118 months – Wood for Trees):

HADCRUT 3GL – 0.0026 C/year
RSS: + 0.0034 C/ year
GISS: + 0.0080 C/year
UAH: +0.0093 C/year
Composite + 0.0044 C/year

Can any sane people detect four thousandths of a degree C change per year and measured it across the entire globe? This is how absurd the global warming alarmism game has gone.

The historical Global Temperature Anomaly [GMTA] can be best visualized to consist of  a linear anomaly component rising  on the average  rate of  0.0059 C per year since 1880] or 0.0045 C /year going back 150 years,  according to IPCC figures plus an OSCILLATING component having a sinusoidal-like function with an amplitude of approximately 0.3C  These two anomalies add and interact to produce  an approximate 60 year cycle with alternating 30 years of cooling with 0.42C temperature drop and 30 years of  warming with a 0.77°C temperature rise.

This pattern is somewhat modified by short term  rises or drops  in temperature  due to ENSO cycles (EL NINO raises and La NINA lowers), major volcanic eruptions (VE4+) plus any changes in solar output. These short term disruptions can be significant (+/- by as much 0.40 to 0.5C outside the equation model).

What are the AGW forecasts for the future?

IPCC forecast: 2.4 to 6°C by 2100, or  0.02 to 0.06°C/year, which is 4 to 13 times the current observed rate of rise.
Met Office forecast: 4°C by 2060, which is 0.08°C/year [18 times the current observed rate of rise.

What do non-AGW scientists project?
There is a growing list of over 30 different international climate scientists, academics, meteorologists, climate researchers and engineers who have researched this topic and who disagree with AGW and IPCC forecasts of unprecedented warming, and are projecting  cooler weather for the next 1-3 decades. Few are even AGW supporters but disagree with warming projected for the next decade (See .Each of the writers gives their views about why they feel global cooling is ahead during the next 10-30 years. These authors expand on the natural  factors affecting our future climate especially the impact of the possible reduced solar cycles in the future  which this writer did not expand on  at this time for brevity sake.

What do past planetary cycles project?

We just peaked on the last warm cycle in the early 2000’s and may have now started a 30 year cool cycle which will drop the global temperature anomaly by 0.42°C by 2030. There will still be some warm El Ninoyears as well but the overall trend will be cooler than the last 30 years. Based on the colder anomaly of 0.06C by 2030, the temperatures are likely to be similar to those of the late 1970’s and early 1980’s. The Hadcrut3 temperature anomaly is as of Sept/2010 0.391°C and it could drop to 0.16°C by 2020 and probably bottom out at about 0.06°C by 2030. The IPCC prediction is for 0.2°C increases for each of the next two decades andthe anomalies to be around 0.8°C by 2020. The two different projections, namely the natural planetary cycle forecast and the IPCC forecast are rapidly diverging.

Figure 4 is a graph of  past and projected global mean temperature anomaly rise as presented by Syun-Ichi Akasofu (Founding Director and Professor of Physics, International Arctic Research Center, University of Alaska):

Figure 4

Figure 5 below is taken from a paper called Predictions of Global Man Temperatures & IPCC Projectionsby Girma Orssengo and was previously posted on WUWT. It is a simple mathematical model or over-fit empirical model based on curve fitting for the Global Mean Temperature Anomaly[GMTA] based on Hadcrut3. The equation or model is not calculated from any measurable parameters other than actual past global temperature anomalies. Although it is not calculated from any physics, energy mechanisms or physical realities underlying the equation, it is still an informative graph to some degree. It is based on actual past empirical data [hadcrut3] since 1880.

There is no guarantee that any future projection of this graph will actually materialize [neither is there evidence that the current agw computer models have any credibility yet either]. However, the graph below may still be useful. It is like the “poor man’s “global temperature model and indicates the following;

* The graph is a general climate trend indicator only based on historical past pattern [ is the cycle heading up or down?]
* There exists a repetitive 60 year climate cycle of 30 years of warming followed by 30 years of cooling.
*There could be two cooling cycles before we reach 2100 which may dwarf and over-ride any greenhouse gas warming
*It is probably more useful and accurate in the short term [next 10-30 years]

Figure 5

Figure 6 is a graph showing  the possible  future GMTA anomalies by year by showing the HISTORIC NATURAL PLANEATARY CYCLES and  the middle IPPC projected scenario of 3.0°C rise by 2100]. Some of the other IPCC scenarios see temperatures rising in the range of 2.4 to 5.3°C by 2100 and which would have even steeper rates of temperature rise.

Figure 6

See the web page reference and paper below by Girma Orssengo for further details of the GMTA FORECAST model and equation and especially Figure 3 on page 4 illustrating the GMTA graph for the years 1880 -2100. Much of the GMTA information comes from his paper posted on WUWT 

Why there could be less warming in the 21 st century than the past 2O TH Century [quote from the above Girma Orssengo paper]

…the century [20th] started when the oscillating anomaly was at its minimum near 1910 with GMTA of –0.64 deg C and ended when it was at its maximum near 2000 with GMTA of 0.48 deg C, giving a large global warming of 0.48+0.64=1.12 deg C. This large warming was due to the rare events of two global warming phases of.77 deg C each but only one cooling phase of 0.44 deg C occurring in the 20th century, giving a global warming of 2*0.77-0.42=1.12 deg C.

In contrast to the 20th century, from Figure 3, there will be nearly no change in GMTA in the 21st century. This is because the century started when the oscillating anomaly was at its maximum near 2000 with GMTA of 0.48 deg C and will end when it is at its minimum near 2090 with GMTA of 0.41 deg C, giving a negligible change in GMTA of 0.41-0.48=-0.07 deg C. This negligible change in GMTA is due to the rare events of two global cooling phases of 0.42 deg C each but only one warming phase of 0.77 deg C occurring in the 21st century, giving the negligible change in GMTA of 0.77-2*0.42=-0.07 deg C.

Noteworthy is that none of the predictions based on planetary cycles project global temperatures to go up by 2 or 4  or 6 degrees C as forecast by the IPCC or Met Office. These forecasts based on planetary cycles like those of Professor Easterbrook and Professor Syun-Ichi Akasofu predict a rise of less than 1 C by 2100, similar to what happened during the past 20th century.  

Also Dr Roy Spencer of University of Alabama and Professor R. Lindzen of MIT feel that the global temperature rise might only be around 1°C by the end of the current century.


During the next 10-30 years we may experience cooler weather rather than unprecedented warming only. It does not mean that all of the next 10 -30 years will be colder, as there will be some warm El Nino years as well, but the overall trend for the next 2-3 decades may be cooler rather than unprecedented warming that AGW supporters claim.

There is no one on this planet who can tell with any certainty what the climate will be like 1 year ahead, next decade and most certainly not the 100 years. The purpose of this article was to show that there are other possible climate futures which do not necessarily require major reduction of carbon dioxide emissions up front. Another version of this climate which is based on natural planetary cycles may manifest much more likely with much more global impact and could occur much sooner than unprecedented global warming. Some of the winters could be quite severe like we saw during the latter part of the 1970’s. The initial observed signs from the real world are that the cooling option has already started in many parts of the globe.

 Matt Vooro, P. Eng

 Also refer to the following for further information about global cooling option

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119 responses to “Signs Of Strengthening Global Cooling”

  1. Mas

    Meanwhile back on Planet Earth …

    “NEW YORK (AP) — Schools closed, governments sent workers home early and planes were grounded Wednesday in an all-too-familiar routine along the East Coast as another snowstorm swept over a region already beaten down by a winter not even half over. “I fell three times trying to get off the steps,” commuter Elliott Self said after leaving an elevated train in Philadelphia. “I just want the snow to stop. I want the sun again. I want to feel just a little bit of warmth.”

    Millions of people got that oh-no-not-again feeling as the wet and sloppy storm engulfed the Northeast, where snowbanks in some places were already so high that drivers couldn’t see around corners. In Washington, D.C., hundreds of thousands of customers lost electricity, as heavy snow toppled power lines.
    Classes were called off and commutes were snarled from Tennessee to New England as cars and buses slipped and slid on highways. The New York area’s three major airports, among the nation’s busiest, saw more than 1,000 flights canceled. Pedestrians struggled across icy patches that were on their way to becoming deep drifts.

    In Pennsylvania, residents hunkered down as a one-two punch of a winter storm brought snow, sleet, freezing rain and then more snow, ….
    (Read more at the above link.)



    You are quite rightly pointing out the drastic change in US winter temperatures. They have cooled about 6 degrees F since 1998 as shown below. They could go down another 3-4 degrees over the next decade similarto the late 1970’s when it went down to about 27 degrees F. There are regions of US which border Canada, where the change is even greater. Similar cooling took place in the Canadian Prairies between 2006 and 2009 where the winters cooled some 7.1 degree C. We are expecting temperatures to again hit -40 to -45 C this coming week in Ontario[like last week ]

    Contiguous USwinter temperatures
    2010 31.16 F
    2009 33.70
    2008 33.31
    2007 33.90
    2006 36.11
    2005 35.91
    2004 33.61
    2003 34.20
    2002 36.35
    2001 31.69
    2000 37.17
    1999 37.02
    1998 36.69

    When I hear AGW supporting climate scientists say that there is no evidence to support that the planet is cooling or will cool in the future, I often wonder if they even live on the same planet.

    think US is laready


    Further to my previous post here is a table showing the winter cooling in the East North Central part of US

    2010 16.8 F
    2009 14.3
    2008 15.7
    2007 20.1
    2006 22.2
    2005 20.1
    2004 19.1
    2003 18.1
    2002 26.1
    2001 14.5
    2000 22.4
    1999 22.1
    1998 26.2

    EAST NORTH CENTRAL region of US is just south of CANADA and west of the Great Lakes. The temperatures are in Fahrenheit. There has been a 10 to 12 degrees F cooling already and the cool cycle is just getting underway. In the late 1970’s it went down to about 9 degrees F or about 7.8 F degrees further colder than now. That is why there was all the flooding in the Red River Valley and the Fargo area in recent years after a fast spring melt and the pattern could set up again this year if there is an early spring melt. [A lot of ice accumulates] As the planet cools the inland areas cool more first as the moderating effect of the oceans is less. As the oceans cool too [as they are now], the coastal areas will start to cool too[ Eastern US Coast and Western Europe ] but the inland areas will cool even more like is happening now in central US and Canada and Eastern Europe and parts of Asia .

  4. salvatore del prete

    Matti Vooro, it is like being in a movie theater,shouting fire and nobody will listen.

    As long as the atm. circulation remains mostly meridional, the N.H. will continue to cool this decade.

    The two main factors that will determine if the atmospheric circulation is going to remain meridional will be solar activity, and high latitude volcanic activity.

    That is the correct explanation of what is happening with our climate, and this is echoed by a few, such Piers Corbyn and Joe D’Aleo.


    1. Rob Honeycutt

      Translation: Any conclusion that doesn’t agree with what I want to hear is BS!

  5. Stephen Wilde

    Just a thought but wonder whether more meridional jets is a transition phase between zonal poleward jets (for strong warming) and zonal equatorward jets (for strong cooling).

    I suggest that because during the MWP both Greenland AND Europe were warmer and during the LIA both were colder.

    In contrast, with the current meridional jets, we generally see Greenland and Europe going in opposite directions depending on the positions of the jetstream loops.


    stephen wilde

    The jet stream pattern is different . It seems to go further south and even southeast in North America. Thus Canada and US are cold all over but AO is positive . Europe is warmer as La Nina patterns seem to give Europe milder or normal winters ?

    1. Stephen Wilde

      Possible. I don’t think we’ve yet seen enough real world situations to sort out all the available combinations. I’m aware of the La Nina/warm Europe link which is probably why we have shaken off the record cold of a few months ago.

      AO still goes a bit positive from time to time but we are in a general negative phase at present and no sign of going anywhere near the persistent positivity of the late 20th century.

      Ther’s a lot of chaotic variability in the system so one can only really get a grip by looking at multidecadal trends or longer.


    European [land +sea] winter temperature departures from the 1961-1990 base have been dropping the last three years also. I have estimated the 2010 winter anomaly.It is bound to be negative as UK 2010 winter temperature dropped by 1.57 C over 2009 .

    European Winter TEMPERATURE departures from 1961-1990 base
    1998 1.23 C
    1999 0.45
    2000 0.63
    2001 1.12
    2002 0.67
    2003 -0.06
    2004 0.65
    2005 0.60
    2006 0.12
    2007 1.54
    2008 1.34
    2009 0.52
    2010 -1.0 [EST]
    The 2010 estimate is mine. Data not available until April/May 2011

  8. CPT Wayne

    I thought the warming effects of CO2, being logarithmic, flat lines out at 100-200 ppm, after which there is negligible atmospheric warming. This would explain the NOAA/NCDC dataset graph shown at this site:

    The annual global temperature changes have been within normal variability despite the rising levels of atmospheric CO2. So, one can readily see that CO2 has had little impact on global temps. Unprecedented global warming has not occurred, and those claiming this are reading from a page of the book of scientific stupidity.

  9. Dan Pangburn

    From 2001 through Dec, 2010 the atmospheric CO2 increased by 21.8% of the total increase from 1800 to 2001 while the average global temperature has not increased significantly and the average of the five reporting agencies has been declining steeply since the peak of the last El Nino in about March 2010. The 21.8% CO2 increase is the significant measurement, not the comparatively brief time period.


    The contribution of added atmospheric carbon dioxide is between small and insignificant. The time-integral of sunspot numbers (a proxy which correlates with the average altitude and thus average temperature of clouds) and effective sea surface temperature are the main contributors.

    A simple equation, with inputs of accepted measurements from government agencies, calculates the average global temperatures since 1895 with 88% accuracy (87.6% if CO2 is assumed to have no influence). See the equation, links to the source data, an eye-opening graph of the results and how they are derived in the pdfs at (see especially the pdfs made public on 4/10/10 and 6/27/10).

    The future average global temperature trend that this equation calculates is down.


    Further eveidence that global cooling is well underway .


    I first saw the picture on the CLIMATE REALISTS web page , but the original source is the Daily mail . It shows the northern half of the entire Northern Hemisphere covered in snow and ice . If one were to add the southern edge of the previous glacier boundary , it may have looked similar.

  12. The Climate is Changing Alright, But It’s Getting Cooler at US Action News

    […] Signs Of Strengthening Global Cooling […]

  13. Gail Combs

    DirkH @ 23. Januar 2011 at 02:22

    I have the opinion that it will go LOWER than the 1945-1977, much lower. It will take decades, though. The reason is the quiet sun. 1945-1977 had the highly active sun of the 20th century. We don’t have that anymore. It’s the big game changer…..
    What is interesting about the sun during the 1970’s is Dr. Svalgaard’s N/S solar polar magnetic field strengths ( Think Svensmark’s Cosmic Theory)

    Notice what happened in the 1970 decade compared to the other 9 decades in the Koppen Climate classification. The other cool decade was 1910. Solar cycle 14 (1902-1913) was weak
    And Solar Cycle 15 did not get off the ground floor until 1918

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