Leading German Meteorologist: Michael Mann’s Sea Level Story Is “A Quack”

What follows in English is a summary version of a piece appearing here at the European Institute for Climate and Energy (EIKE) based in Germany, written by retired meteorologist Klaus-Eckart Puls.

PIK report: “Sea level rising fastest in 2000 years” turns out to be a quack! Data shows no change!

Sea levels are now rising faster than at any time in the last 2000 years claims a new hockey stick manufactured by Michael Mann and Stefan Rahmstorf. But that claim has already turned out to be bogus.

As nobody cares much about so-called climate change anymore, the Potsdam Institute For Climate Impact Research (PIK) had to come up with another scare story: rapidly rising sea levels. That claim is supported by a whopping 2 (cherry-picked) North Carolina coastal sediment cores, which the authors claim reflect sea level behavior for the entire globe.  Other scientists have already poured cold water on the paper, like Jens Schröter of the Alfred Wegener Institute, who says Mann’s and Rahmstorf’s paper is “unsuitable for making predictions”.

The opposite is the reality

The new predictions of catastrophe are not based on actual MEASUREMENTS. Actual measurements made by coastal tide gauges and satellites show the opposite is likely happening, i.e. sea level rise is actually decelerating. Presented are 7 datasets that contradict the latest Mannian hockey-stick fantasy.

(1) The US-Coastal Journal reports that sea level rise rate is clearly slowing down – based on tide gauge measurements, full publication here:

It is essential that investigations continue to address why this worldwide-temperature increase had not produced acceleration of global sea level over the past 100 years, and indeed why sea level has possibly decelerated for the last 80 years.”

(2) EUMETSAT recently made public the GLOBAL sea level data/measurements. Result: No trace of an acceleration! See the following graphic:

3) The GFZ Potsdam reached the same result, showing that there is no global uniform trend. Moreover, many locations show a huge sea level drop!

(4) Norderney and Cuxhaven German coastal locations have records going back over 100 years, and so does the NLWKN Lower Saxony State Association and the state of Lower Saxony for the North Sea coast. These MEASUREMENTS too show no acceleration in sea level increase (text translated below):

The text in English:

NLWKN (Annual Report 2005)
“All the discussions and horror scenarios for nothing:
There is no scientific basis for a massive increase in sea level by 2100. The NLWKN has an objective witness for saying this: the tide gauge of Nordeney. It provides a consistent recording of the water level for 100 years. From this data series you can read it: The increase for the time period from 1906 to 2005 is exactly 24.3 cm.

The state government of Lower Saxony:
“Climate change is not detectable:
The state government sees no signs of an increasing sea level at the North Sea coast as a result of climate change. Also the trend of more frequent storm surges is not detectable, says Minister of the Environment Hans-Heinrich Sander (FDP) in the state parliament. The trend remains unchanged at 25 cm per century. A more rapid increase is not observed.”

It needs to be pointed out that since the last Ice Age, North Germany’s coastal land is sinking, while Scandinavia’s is rising.

5) Works from the Institute for Historical Coastal Research Wilhelmshaven also show completely different results from those of PIK and Mann:

The above chart shows that for the period of 1600 to 2000 sea level rose on average 35 cm/century. But from 1900 – 2000, it rose only 25 cm. That is a clear deceleration. Afterwards: The sea level in the recent years has risen even more slowly than in the 20th century! …there is no trace of any acceleration whatsoever.

(6) A NASA team of authors recently published a report that clearly highlighted two points:
(a) No acceleration in sea level exists,
(b) The sea temperature shows a declining trend,
consequently there exists no thermally accelerated sea level increase:

Blue line: global sea level as to AVISO,
Red line: Sea surface temperature since 2004 ARGO (3000 bouys).

(7) Even the IPCC came to the same conclusion that there is no acceleration. With each report the projected sea level for the year 2100 was revised downwards every time – now it is projected to be only 40 cm:

IPCC prognoses: Step-by-step returning to reality.

Finally, when one takes into account that the PIK and the Mann author-team are known worldwide as alarmists, e.g. Michael Mann (hockey stick inventor), Stefan Rahmstorf (PIK) et al., then considerable doubt on the credibility of this doomsday paper is in complete order.

A recent critique of the sea level alarmism can be found here.

Klaus-Eckart Puls – EIKE

(Translation/editing by P. Gosselin)

26 responses to “Leading German Meteorologist: Michael Mann’s Sea Level Story Is “A Quack””

  1. John Shade

    I get the impression that rebuttals such as this one are now happening very quickly indeed whenever flaky papers are published supporting alarm over human impact on the climate/ocean/cryosphere system. If so, this is a very good thing indeed. It may even encourage journalists to wait for a few days before rushing to print with the press releases from climate campaigners – the public will benefit from better articles which include lucid refutations of scaremongering attempts.

    1. jazznick

      Alas John, being a Climate God means never having to say you’re sorry !

      The public will still get the initial headline scare articles (that’s what sells papers) and any retractions, if published, will be shoved into a couple of lines at the foot of an inside page; if you’re lucky.
      The public are intentionally being kept misinformed in the MSM, who just publish IPCC/NGO handouts written by their green activist friends.
      Joe Public still has to turn to the interweb for the broader picture, if he can be bothered.

      We need proper brave journalists (not cut n paste merchants) to get involved enough in the subject to be able to skewer the smug establishment and expose the fraud of politically and greed motivated climate alarmism for what it is.

      I would however fear for their physical safety, as there are some pretty rich and powerful people and ‘organizations’ who would become quite upset at any adverse publicity which might result in, er, unpleasantness………. narmean ?

      1. DirkH

        The business model of the MSM is selling panic. From time to time when there’s a lull of real catastrophes, disasters or wars, good ole climate catastrophe is put on the headlines again; an evergreen story now.

        Must be decades since they last sold me something – oh wait, with one exception the Focus of last year that portrayed skeptics in a fair light.

        As a kid, i couldn’t understand the apathetic reaction of my parents and grandparents to the News; now i do. 😉

  2. Ed Caryl

    We are now well into the “saving reputations”phase. The next year will be very interesting. Hansen and Mann must be feeling very uncomfortable right about now. Will we hear a mea culpa?

  3. Ed Caryl
    1. Jimbo

      An excellent critique that deals with issues not widely covered. I found something interesting in Google Scholar here.

      Journal of Coastal Research – 2008
      “Modern Intertidal Foraminifera of the Outer Banks, North Carolina, U.S.A., and their Applicability for Sea-Level Studies”
      “Furthermore, saltmarsh foraminiferal assemblages may be controlled by a number of variables (salinity, temperature, dissolved oxygen, etc.) that may have no direct relationship to elevation in the tidal frame….”

  4. R. de Haan
    1. Jimbo

      The rate of sea level rise has decelerated for the past 80 years. Mean sea level have recently fallen. This is the real catastrophe of Mann-made sea level rise baloney. 😉

  5. R. de Haan

    As we enter the new Grand Minimum sea levels will decrease.

    The ultimate proof of Global Cooling as water is trapped in land based ice formation.

    End of the scare.

  6. Billy Liar

    Klaus-Eckart Puls is to congratulated on his excellent rebuttal.

  7. New Report on “Ocean’s Rising” is “BULLSHIT!” « The Big Green Lie

    […] Leading German Meteorologist: Michael Mann’s Sea Level Story “A Quack”  […]

  8. biggreenlie

    “Out these bastards” every chance we can!

  9. DirkH

    Wikipedia NPOV Thought Police missed to erase this picture
    (C14 concentrations, indicating solar activity, up to 1950 – see the rise from 1900 to 1950 – before CO2 concentrations were playing much of a role in climate!)

  10. DirkH

    In 20 years, the IPCC’s median sea level rise prognosis for the year 2100 will be zero if the trend continues; after that, they’ll prognosticate a sea level drop (and become de facto coolists) – 😉

    1. Jimbo

      The IPCC’s downward trend line could be a worrying sign of things to come. 🙁

      1. DirkH

        Inadvertently, they would exactly hit the late Otto Landscheidt’s 2030 prognosis for a deep cooling.

        1. DirkH

          Might have to reconsider my fallback plan of going to Canada.

          1. Brian H

            Indeed. If it weren’t for the political swampland covering the place, Canadians’ fallback plan is to go South. Do something about your drainage, will you please?

  11. DirkH

    More details of EU Energy Commissioner Oettinger’s plans to enforce energy usage restrictions for European households emerge. I have no energy to translate the drivel; i would summarize it as madness, fascism, price-fixing, market-rigging, smart meters, abject failure, ineptitude, artificial energy scarcity, Greens want even more hardship, typical German death philosophy forced on the rest of the Europeans; you know what happens next.

    AGW movement, meet Eddy minimum and see how well you fare without energy…

  12. Casper

    I’m getting really sick when I’m hearing this sea-level propaganda. I really hope the EU will go broke and no one will be able to blow the money on this AGW-shit. 😈

  13. John F. Hultquist

    Although there are other possibilities it seems the notion of sea level rise is based on the assumption of ice melting somewhere or everywhere that is not already floating. But, the easy ice has already melted. For example, the Puget Lobe during the Vashon Stade (Fraser Glaciation) is estimated to be a few thousand feet thick in the area of Seattle, WA. with the ice mass depressing the region well below today’s sea level. Relatively speaking this area is closer to the tropical area and gets higher sun than places, say, in Alaska, Greenland, or Antarctica. This combination of factors caused rapid melting – when the glacial event ended (for whatever reason). Today remaining ice, because of high elevation and/or high latitude, will be more difficult to melt. It seems to me that if one is looking for an increase in sea level from melting ice – expect it to be slow and slowing or easily reversed. Other contributions to sea level change are many and complicated.

  14. NikFromNYC

    Dude, your picture is uber creepy. I know one thing: you won’t change it to something real and nice, no matter what. You like staring up at people, neo- defiantly, as if you are used to being casually slapped up upon the side the head by the dominant women in your borrowed life. I see the worst of myself in you, not the best. Now you speak out? Where were you in ’89?

    That said, I will post my usual payload of simple instead if debatable facts:

    The LA Times featured cold fusion in ’89 before its debunking.
    Environmentalists were aghast!
    “It’s like giving a machine gun to an idiot child.” – Paul Ehrlich
    (mentor of John Cook of the SkepticalScience blog, author of “Climate
    Change Denial”)
    “Clean-burning, non-polluting, hydrogen-using bulldozers still could
    knock down trees or build housing developments on farmland.” – Paul
    Ciotti (LA  Times)
    “It gives some people the false hope that there are no limits to
    growth and no environmental price to be paid by having unlimited
    sources of energy.” – Jeremy Rifkin (NY Times)
    “Many people assume that cheaper, more abundant energy will mean that
    mankind is better off, but there is no evidence for that.” – Laura
    Nader (sister of Ralph)

    CLIMATEGATE 101: “For your eyes only…Don’t leave stuff lying around
    on ftp sites – you never know who is trawling them. The two MMs have
    been after the CRU station data for years. If they ever hear there is
    a Freedom of Information Act now in the UK, I think I’ll delete the
    file rather than send to anyone….Tom Wigley has sent me a worried
    email when he heard about it – thought people could ask him for his
    model code. He has retired officially from UEA so he can hide behind
    that.” – Phil “Hide The Decline” Jones to Michael  “Hockey Stick” Mann

    Central alarmist blogs are owned by PR firms financed
    by green energy speculators:
    DeSmogBlog = green PR firm paid for by a $125 million online gambling
    site convicted money launderer who sells solar cells.
    RealClimate = web site registered to left wing PR firm behind the junk
    science link of vaccines to autism and the silicone breast implant
    scare which bankrupted Dow Corning.
    ClimateProgress = left wing think tank.
    “SkepticalScience” = overlaps with a nuclear weapons design firm now
    getting $330 million green energy contracts.

    Here I present A Global Warming Digest:
    Denial: http://bit.ly/m6xySt
    Oceans: http://oi53.tinypic.com/2i6os4y.jpg
    Thermometers: http://oi52.tinypic.com/2agnous.jpg
    Earth: http://oi56.tinypic.com/2reh021.jpg
    Ice: http://oi53.tinypic.com/wmav6g.jpg
    Authority: http://oi52.tinypic.com/wlt4i8.jpg
    Prophecy: http://oi52.tinypic.com/30bfktk.jpg
    Psychopathy: http://oi52.tinypic.com/1zqu71i.jpg
    Icon: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tmPzLzj-3XY
    Thinker: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=n92YenWfz0Y

    -=NikFromNYC=- Ph.D. in Carbon Chemistry (Columbia/Harvard)

  15. Josh
  16. Mervyn Sullivan

    Once a person’s work has been publicly exposed and discredited and perceived to be a fraud, that person’s work should never be trusted again. The Mann “Hockey stick curve” was well and truly discredited, and Mann’s work should never again be trusted because he is no longer perceived to be an honest scientist who believes in the scientific method.

    When a scientist goes out of his/her way to purposely distort science, particularly science that will knowingly influence government policies at great cost to taxpayers, then that scientist should be blacklisted… branded “Not to be trusted”!

  17. Fuzzlenutter

    The Global Warming/Climate Change/Climate Crisis/Climate Disruption is the biggest hoax and fraud ever perpetuated on mankind and it is dire that it is exposed to constant scrutiny 24/7. There’s way too much power and money at play here for the alarmists to ever admit to the truth…

  18. Pragmatic Jim

    Much ado about nothing. (straw man arguments)
    From what I can glean from the so called contradictory data sets, is that they do not contradict the study led by Benjamin Horton, c0-authored by Micheal Mann and others. No where in the paper do they claim “accelerating rise” in recent decades. Here is the actual paper: http://www.pnas.org/content/early/2011/06/13/1015619108.full.pdf+html
    They do however support the claim that the rate of sea level rise has decreased in recent decades. The Horton et al study, supported by other studies, shows that the sea level remained fairly constant over the past 2 millennia rose at a rate of .6mm/year during the MWP, tapered off, then rose at a rate of 2mm/year during the late 19th and and early 20th centuries.
    My question is, do you all know what increased or decreased acceleration means?
    Let’s say that you are far out in space, 2639 km high to be exact. The earth’s gravitational pull on you is one half of what it would be at the surface, so you begin to accelerate towards the earth at a rate of 4.9 m/s². As you get closer to the earth, you are going faster and faster, but because the gravitation force is stronger, your acceleration is increasing towards 9.8 m/s². This is INCREASED acceleration. Don’t worry though, you have a high tech space suit that will prevent you from burning up when you hit the atmosphere. Speaking of which, eventually the friction will slow your rate of acceleration again. You will still be accelerating however. THIS is decreased acceleration. Soon after, your acceleration will be decreased to zero. This is known as terminal velocity. You are still falling however, and VERY fast. You will not see much deceleration, if any, until you hit the earth.
    Over the past few decades the ocean levels are NOT decreasing, they are not even slowing down. They are just not speeding up as fast as they were in the late 19th, early 20th century.