What follows in English is a summary version of a piece appearing here at the European Institute for Climate and Energy (EIKE) based in Germany, written by retired meteorologist Klaus-Eckart Puls.
PIK report: “Sea level rising fastest in 2000 years” turns out to be a quack! Data shows no change!
Sea levels are now rising faster than at any time in the last 2000 years claims a new hockey stick manufactured by Michael Mann and Stefan Rahmstorf. But that claim has already turned out to be bogus.
As nobody cares much about so-called climate change anymore, the Potsdam Institute For Climate Impact Research (PIK) had to come up with another scare story: rapidly rising sea levels. That claim is supported by a whopping 2 (cherry-picked) North Carolina coastal sediment cores, which the authors claim reflect sea level behavior for the entire globe. Other scientists have already poured cold water on the paper, like Jens Schröter of the Alfred Wegener Institute, who says Mann’s and Rahmstorf’s paper is “unsuitable for making predictions”.
The opposite is the reality
The new predictions of catastrophe are not based on actual MEASUREMENTS. Actual measurements made by coastal tide gauges and satellites show the opposite is likely happening, i.e. sea level rise is actually decelerating. Presented are 7 datasets that contradict the latest Mannian hockey-stick fantasy.
(1) The US-Coastal Journal reports that sea level rise rate is clearly slowing down – based on tide gauge measurements, full publication here:
It is essential that investigations continue to address why this worldwide-temperature increase had not produced acceleration of global sea level over the past 100 years, and indeed why sea level has possibly decelerated for the last 80 years.”
(2) EUMETSAT recently made public the GLOBAL sea level data/measurements. Result: No trace of an acceleration! See the following graphic:
3) The GFZ Potsdam reached the same result, showing that there is no global uniform trend. Moreover, many locations show a huge sea level drop!
(4) Norderney and Cuxhaven German coastal locations have records going back over 100 years, and so does the NLWKN Lower Saxony State Association and the state of Lower Saxony for the North Sea coast. These MEASUREMENTS too show no acceleration in sea level increase (text translated below):
The text in English:
NLWKN (Annual Report 2005)
“All the discussions and horror scenarios for nothing:
There is no scientific basis for a massive increase in sea level by 2100. The NLWKN has an objective witness for saying this: the tide gauge of Nordeney. It provides a consistent recording of the water level for 100 years. From this data series you can read it: The increase for the time period from 1906 to 2005 is exactly 24.3 cm.
The state government of Lower Saxony:
“Climate change is not detectable:
The state government sees no signs of an increasing sea level at the North Sea coast as a result of climate change. Also the trend of more frequent storm surges is not detectable, says Minister of the Environment Hans-Heinrich Sander (FDP) in the state parliament. The trend remains unchanged at 25 cm per century. A more rapid increase is not observed.”
It needs to be pointed out that since the last Ice Age, North Germany’s coastal land is sinking, while Scandinavia’s is rising.
5) Works from the Institute for Historical Coastal Research Wilhelmshaven also show completely different results from those of PIK and Mann:
The above chart shows that for the period of 1600 to 2000 sea level rose on average 35 cm/century. But from 1900 – 2000, it rose only 25 cm. That is a clear deceleration. Afterwards: The sea level in the recent years has risen even more slowly than in the 20th century! …there is no trace of any acceleration whatsoever.
(6) A NASA team of authors recently published a report that clearly highlighted two points:
(a) No acceleration in sea level exists,
(b) The sea temperature shows a declining trend,
consequently there exists no thermally accelerated sea level increase:
(7) Even the IPCC came to the same conclusion that there is no acceleration. With each report the projected sea level for the year 2100 was revised downwards every time – now it is projected to be only 40 cm:
Finally, when one takes into account that the PIK and the Mann author-team are known worldwide as alarmists, e.g. Michael Mann (hockey stick inventor), Stefan Rahmstorf (PIK) et al., then considerable doubt on the credibility of this doomsday paper is in complete order.
A recent critique of the sea level alarmism can be found here.
Klaus-Eckart Puls – EIKE
(Translation/editing by P. Gosselin)