No Sea Level Rise Acceleration – Study Shows “Similar Rates Could Also Be Identified Earlier In The Record”

How often do we hear screams “head for the hills, sea levels are rising fast!” from alarmists like James Extreme Hansen of GISS and Stefan Rahmstorf of the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK)?

Yet, study after study show that there is no evidence of accelerating sea level rise. All sea level fluctuations are within the normal range of variation. Nothing unusual is happening.

The latest study is by Albrecht et al 2011, Determining sea level change in the German Bight appearing in the journal Ocean Dynamics 61: 2037-2050. Hat-tip: http://www.co2science.org.

The study focused on regional mean sea level (RMSL) in the German Bight of the North Sea. Albrecht et al based their work on homogenized annual mean sea level data for the period 1843-2008 acquired by 15 tide gauges.

According to CO2 Science, the authors determined that “regional mean sea level increased at rates between 1.64 and 1.74 mm/year with a 90% confidence range of 0.28 mm/year in each case.”  As for an acceleration in RMSL rise within the past few decades, CO2 Science writes:

…they note that in terms of 20-year trends, the most recent rates are ‘relatively high.’  However, they report that these rates “are not unusual and that similar rates could also be identified earlier in the record.”

I don’t recall seeing anything about this in the papers on on TV. The authors also note:

…the same conclusion concerning a possible acceleration in the recent past was drawn by Haigh et al. (2009) for the North Sea region of the English Channel.”

A press release by the Institute of Coastal Research at the Helmholtz Center in Geesthacht, Germany also said the same 2 months ago, based on the same data I assume (emphasis added):

A group of Geesthacht coastal researchers, together with engineers from the University of Siegen, has recently carried out an analysis of the rise in sea levels in the German Bight. All reliable water level measurements were evaluated for the first time, in order to determine how the mean sea level of the German Bight has changed. According to this evaluation, the sea level rose by approx. 20 centimetres in the last century, in recent times higher than in the years around 1960. However, similarly high increases in levels also occurred in the first half of the 20th century. They are, therefore, not unusual.”

There seem to be natural cycles at work here.

And strange on how all the models show acceleration, but the real data do not.

8 responses to “No Sea Level Rise Acceleration – Study Shows “Similar Rates Could Also Be Identified Earlier In The Record””

  1. DirkH
  2. Eduardo Ferreyra

    The amount of water available in Earth is about the same that existed when the planet was formed about 4.5 billion years ago. So the increase is due to the expanding volume caused by warming of the first 100-300 meters of the oceans. But oceans have been now in a cooling trend during the last 3 to 5 years, and sea levels are also going slightly down. Models consider coastal lines as being vertical instead as quite slanted –as we can see in the majority of beaches in the world. This means that for every millimeter of rising seas the amount of water needed increases logarithmically. But as the amount of water in the seas is constant, the rate of sea level increase will be slowly reduced until it finally stops, even with warming oceans because there is a limit to water volume expansion.

  3. Brian G Valentine

    I am very sorry for Deutschland, compelled to suffer the indignity of the presence of the PIK.

    PIK has an advocacy role more extreme than GISS here in the US.

    Recent developments have made it clear that it is possible to undermine GISS with some hard truth.

    Unfortunately I don’t see any similar path to restraining PIK extremism

  4. Ike

    so, this is slightly OT:

    What I understood so far is, if you want goverment money for free, be a warmist.

    So I have this tree in my garden. Its a larch. About 15 meters high. I want to get rid of it. But our city law states, that trees which have a spezial diameter are not allowed to be cut, unless the tree is threatening property or human lifes. Well it does not, but today there was someone from the city. And he asked me, why I want to cut down this tree. :-) my arguments -> global warming, extrem weather, storms etc. -> possible damage to human life or neighbours property.

    Now I have the permission to cut down the tree. Best thing is, that due to flooding in our area, city department will regulate the bank of the creek that is beside my house. And that larch is near by. They will cut down that tree…no costs for me. Because of global warming I saved 700,- €. Thank you Mr. Rahmstorf!

    Regards
    Ike

    1. DirkH

      You were CONCERNED about the CLIMATE CHANGE… and it solved all your problems…
      http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FIcAjXjKsyQ&feature=youtu.be

      “”A moral panic is the intensity of feeling expressed in a population about an issue that appears to threaten the
      social order. According to Stanley Cohen, author of Folk Devils and Moral Panics (1972)”

  5. Paul Homewood

    I have just started a review of UK tidal gauges and published this yesterday on North Shields.

    It just that the rate of increase (7″ per century) has not altered over the last 100 yrs.

    http://notalotofpeopleknowthat.wordpress.com/2012/04/12/uk-sea-level-changesa-case-study-at-north-shields/

  6. Black week for greens « Pull My Chain

    […] http://notrickszone.com/2012/04/11/no-sea-level-rise-acceleration-study-shows-similar-rates-could-al…  They’ve been spreading this scare-tactic for many years but it’s not ture. […]