Science journalist Axel Bojanowski at the online Spiegel writes a report on the warming stop, reaffirming that it indeed has stopped for 16 years. But at the same time the article says, citing NASA, we that could see a record warm 2014. The heat is out there, somewhere.
Interestingly, Spiegel now says it’s the atmosphere near the surface that has paused, and not the globe or climate. 10 years ago, on the other hand, atmospheric warming was called global warming.
More than 97% of all models are wrong
The big questions is why the near-surface atmosphere has not warmed like all the models said it would. Spiegel writes:
Computer models did not predict the development. Only three of 114 climate simulations have correctly shown the trend of the last years, summed up the UNIPCC in September in its fifth assessment report.”
A variety of possible explanations
The reason for the pause, Spiegel writes, is unknown. Spiegel describes 5 different reasons: 1) drying out of the upper atmospheric layers, 2) Pacific oscillations, 3) weak solar activity, 4) increased levels of aerosols and 5) well, warming hasn’t really stopped – a gap in Arctic data is concealing the warming.
And in almost every case, data are sorely lacking and so no sound conclusions can be drawn. This is the state of the science that scientists claim is more than 95% certain. We notice that all the warming still remains hidden in model projections, oceans and missing data. They tell us it’s there, but they just haven’t measured it yet.
NASA moves the goal posts to 30 years
Spiegel then cites NASA in claiming that 16 years are not enough after all, and that at least 30 years are needed.
Temperature developments over a few years are in any case not sufficient to establish a trend says NASA: Data from at least 30 years are necessary.
Will 2014 be hottest ever?
Next Spiegel writes about NASA’s prediction that 2014 may be the globe’s hottest year ever, but that it depends on the ENSO. Spiegel writes:
A new El Niño could put 2014 at the top, NASA explained – also the 16-year temperature trend could once again head upwards.”
That makes perfect sense: 16 years is not a trend, but one single year can make a whole new warming trend!
Overall it was an overly warmist article from the somewhat usually a bit more skeptical Bojanowski. The editorial desk must be pressuring him.