Vencoreweather Meteorology: Global Sea Ice Has “Rebounded In Recent Weeks To Near Normal Levels”! La Nina Storming Back

Meteorologist Paul Dorian at Vencoreweather.com here has a post on the latest concerning El Nino and global sea ice. Not long ago the warmists and alarmists were jumping and hollering about the drop in Arctic sea ice, accompanied by talk (hope) of an ice-free Arctic.

Arctic sea ice rebounds

Looks like all the talk was premature hysteria, as Arctic sea ice has moved back into a normal range. So rapidly can things up there change. It goes to show that natural factors do rule, and that a few tenths of a degree of global warming is nothing but a circus show. Vencoreweather writes:

Concerning the El Nino, ‘it has begun to collapse and will likely flip to a moderate or strong La Nina (colder-than-normal water) by later this year. In rather quick fashion, global temperatures have seemingly responded to the unfolding collapse of El Nino and global sea ice has actually rebounded in recent weeks to near normal levels.”

He adds: “…in recent weeks global sea ice has surged back to near normal as the collapse of El Nino has unfolded.”

Global surface temperatures fall as La Nino wanes

Of course sea ice does not react directly to ENSO changes, and certainly the recent sea ice surge had much more to do with local polar weather conditions. On the other hand, global temperature is in part modulated by the ENSO as the following chart indicates:

Global temperature anomalies (black) since 2014, tropics temperature anomalies (red); courtesy Dr. Ryan Maue, Weather Bell Analytics

Global temperature anomalies (black) since 2014, tropics temperature anomalies (red); courtesy Dr. Ryan Maue, Weather Bell Analytics

The chart above shows that global temperatures have eased back from their high earlier this year.

Arctic ice volume trending sharply upwards over past 5 years

Vencoreweather also presents a chart showing that Arctic sea ice volume trend has remained flat over the past decade, and it has actually been recovering over the past 5 years. All the talk of a death spiral are misplaced, to put it nicely.

Arctic sea ice volume anomaly and trend from PIOMAS; courtesy University of Washington, PIOMAS, Zhang and Rothrock, 2003

Arctic sea ice volume anomaly and trend from PIOMAS; courtesy University of Washington, PIOMAS, Zhang and Rothrock, 2003

Dorian writes that the University of Washington’s Pan-Arctic Ice Ocean Modeling and Assimilation System (PIOMAS) “is showing an upward trend in Arctic sea ice volume since the low point was reached in 2012 following a long downtrend (circled area above)“.

Also Dorian points out that Antarctic sea ice has rebounded and is now above the mean. Overall Antarctic sea ice has been trending upwards since satellite measurements began.

Robust La Nina now in the works

Today Joe Bastardi posted at FaceBook a new chart issued by NOAA, writing: “CFSV2 continues to correct toward SCRIPPS with newest members (blue) now going to strong La Nina territory.

nino34Sea_04_13_2016

This latest “correction is rather amusing as just weeks ago NOAA predicted that there would not even be a La Nina. perhaps the NOAA allowed itself to become engulfed by all the warming hysteria, before having to scramble to avoid total forecast humiliation.

29 responses to “Vencoreweather Meteorology: Global Sea Ice Has “Rebounded In Recent Weeks To Near Normal Levels”! La Nina Storming Back”

  1. yonason

    Speaking of “corrections.”

    These things must be done delicately, or they leave a mark
    http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/icecover.uk.php

    No worries. Nothing a little white out can’t repair.
    (If you don’t see the problem, they’ve “fixed” it.)

    1. David Appell

      Such problems are a fact of life.

      You could do better, I’m sure?

  2. Buddy

    Hi chaps:)

    So good to drop in on you. I thought I might suggest a couple of corrections to you. I’m sure they were just an “oversight” by your crack staff:

    1) The Arctic sea ice recovery you talk about?

    Ahhhhhh no. Unless you want to talk about the “recovery” from 1982 – 1987….and then crashed through the trough in following years.

    Or….the “recovery” from 1997 – 1998….and then continued its collapse in subsequent years.

    Or….the “recovery” from 2008 – 2009….and then continued its collapse in subsequent years. Are you beginning to see the trend? How many times do you get to call for a recovery….only to see it melt away?

    You see….climate is more than just looking at a few years at a time.

    The current “recovery” as you call it….is now collapsing itself. The Arctic ice sheet is at the lowest level for this date since records have been kept.

    That isn’t a very good “recovery”. But I admire your persistence:)

    2) Oh….and one other “correction”. Your subtitle that says: ” Global surface temperatures fall as La Nina wanes”. I think you MEANT to say as “El Nino” wanes (El Nino is weakening and going away….NOT La Nina). Always trying to help you boys…:)

    Buddy..:)

    1. yonason

      Just two words for you, Buddy.

      ENRON Accounting
      http://www.breitbart.com/london/2015/02/07/breathtaking-adjustments-to-arctic-temperature-record-is-there-any-global-warming-we-can-trust/
      ===================================================================
      (oh. look. Just what I posted about above)
      https://wattsupwiththat.com/2016/04/11/more-satellite-problems-with-arctic-sea-ice-measurement/

      1. David Appell

        “Enron accounting” is just a desperate, bullshit excuse for not looking at the actual scientific data, and how it is taken, and what it means.

        It’s an excuse for the writer’s laziness and lack of seriousness.

    2. Alan

      Thank you Buddy, for posting some actual facts. 😀

      Unfortunately, WattsUp’s audience are immune to actual data.

      1. DirkH

        So let’s see how warmunist predictions do. Hansen 1988.
        http://www.skepticalscience.com/pics/Hansen_1988.gif

        Oooh.

        Ooooooohhhh.

        1. Colorado Wellington

          No place for skepticism on Alan’s fridge door. It’s plastered with beliefs.

        2. yonason

          @Colorado Wellington

          Aging hippies use household appliances? Who knew?

          Does that mean he believes in electricity? Hmmm, I wonder who will supply that electricity if his dream of a collapse of Capitalism occurs? I do hope he doesn’t believe that government will run things. Never worked before. Maybe free market collectives – he and a bunch of his fellow hippies can start an international airplane company?
          https://scicrit.files.wordpress.com/2014/04/maxresdefault.jpg

          Actually, after looking at some of his articles, there’s a hint that what’s left of his brain is trying hard to get it right.

          “Technology, along with its twin, innovation, was the key”

          But there’s just not enough left, it seems.

          “Death of capitalism; bring it on”

          He wants the innovation, but hasn’t a clue that without industry, there will be none.

          Yeah, Alan. Let’s just destroy it all and start from scratch. Sure. That ought to work.

          1. Colorado Wellington

            Oh, they do! Vintage non-electric ice boxes are all the rage among the progressive crowd. George Lucas has one and they are popular on plantations, just like in the old days. Must be a Democrat thing.

            They are in so much demand that there are now companies making them. They go for $15,000-$40,000 and they are the newest, greenest thing out there because of their tiny carbon footprint. The workers moving them into the manor house must wear little slip-on booties so they don’t track it in.

            They don’t use electricity except in the doors that light up to show how cool it is they are not using any electricity and they have compressors with Freon, who knows why.

          2. yonason

            @Colorado Wellington 15. April 2016 at 12:36 AM

            GOOD GRIEF! What will idiots with no common sense and too much money and time on their hands not do to show off?!

            Thanks

      2. yonason

        “Unfortunately, WattsUp’s audience are immune to actual data” – Alan

        Sorry, Alan, but it’s the warmists who are immune to data, as Dr. Richard Keen clearly illustrates here.
        https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Gmc5w2I-FCA

        And I am NOT a regular Watts Up reader. That article was only chosen because Watts happened to be right about that specific problem before. When he pointed it out, warmists at first denied, and later had to admit he was correct.

        By accusing me of being one of “WattsUp’s audience” you commit the logical fallacy of guilt by association, a form of ad hominem attack. You are the ones “immune to data.”

        I try very hard to only use ad hominem attacks when I feel they are justified by the facts. They are not in my first-use arsenal.

        1. DirkH

          Well I wouldn’t call being called a WUWT reader an attack. It’s more like a compliment. I mean it’s not like he called you a SkepticalScience reader. Which would be so boring anyway I think their readers have bored themselves to death a long time ago.

          1. yonason

            True, it’s not an insult, but I do have issues with them. Others do as well. They have lost readership because of it. I would go into detail, but I don’t want to ‘feed the trolls’. Anyway, there’s still enough good material there, and citing quality material from them is not a problem.

            SkepticalScience is one I never go to, even to see how bad they are. After reading a few distorted articles there years ago, I have had no further interest in wasting my time with them or giving them the traffic.

    3. David Johnson

      You have a good career in front of you, as a comedian

  3. Ric Werme

    Speaking of corrections, one of your section headers is:

    Global surface temperatures fall as La Nina wanes

    How can La Nina wane when it hasn’t started yet? 🙂

  4. Doug Proctor

    From low in 1982 to 2012 is 30 years, half of a 60-year cycle (?). With global temps dropping with La Nina, will we see a subdued Arctic ice melt, leading to end 2016 with a positive growth to above gray band (r1?).

    We are at the cusp of what skeptics suggest is a turn from warm to cold. I thought 2015 would be the year; obviously I was wrong, not thinking about the El Nino. The La Nina should ruin the “end of pause” for the warmists, though they will claim the downturn is just weather, unlike the El Nino.

    This battle just keeps going on. Probably not temperatures but ice coverage. And about 5 years of consistent growth.

    Make that 10. Even Gore will have retired by then. (Didn’t stop Erhlich from maintaining his stance, but it did put his failed predictions into the “means well” or “in the longer term”, less troublesome category.)

  5. Edward.

    “Today Joe Bastardi posted at FaceBook a new chart issued by NOAA, writing: “CFSV2 continues to correct toward SCRIPPS with newest members (blue) now going to strong La Nina territory.”

    It sure does look that way, Joe.

    Interesting stuff, as per. Plus, if you want the climate to change – she does and how, the tempestuous ferocity and elemental majesty of the forces its interplay at work; Sun, Oceanic, Aeolian, axial tilt, orbit and Coriolis simply (not that simple actually) but do – boggle the mind. Mankind looks on, helplessly.

  6. Thomas

    Paul Dorian added a preface that says, “As a result [of reporting issues with the satellite data], the sea ice measurements and any related conclusions in this article are in question.” Hopefully his assessment doesn’t change significantly from this.

  7. DirkH

    “perhaps the NOAA allowed itself to become engulfed by all the warming hysteria, before having to scramble to avoid total forecast humiliation.”

    Guess their paycheck depends on it. Don’t know about NOAA but NASA makes 1.2 bn EUR a year with warmunism. By producing a temperature series without ANY use of space technology, at GISS. Yeah, I guess that’s why you need NASA doing it.

    1. DirkH

      …not EUR, but USD. sorry.

    2. David Appell

      “Guess their paycheck depends on it.”

      Whenever I read things like this my first guess is always that the writer’s own opinion and numbers are for sale, in honor of his paycheck, so he assumes everyone else’s is too.

      That’s too bad, Dirk. Lots of us have integrity. You should try it sometime.

      1. AndyG55

        “Lots of us have integrity.”

        But never you..

        You wouldn’t any idea what the word actually means..

        Its not in your nature.

        You are nothing but a low-end junk-science journalist.

  8. VENCOREWEATHER METEOROLOGY: IL GHIACCIO MARINO GLOBALE E' "TORNATO NELLE ULTIME SETTIMANE A LIVELLI QUASI NORMALI!" TORNA PREPOTENTE LA NINA! : Attività Solare ( Solar Activity )

    […] Fonte: notrickszone […]

  9. David Appell

    Re: the circle on your PIOMAS volume graph.

    How many damn times is it going to take your people to stop trying to interpret short-term fluctuations as something meaningful?

    The long-term trends are continually continually continually against you. Now just as much as 10 or 20 years ago. Yet your bald-faced deniers continue to dishonestly try to interpret trends of only a few years as somehow meaningful — cooling is always just a few years away!!

    CO2 is a f-cking greenhouse gas. It didn’t stop being a greenhouse gas in 2012 or 2015, and it won’t stop being one in 2017 or 2019 or 2029.

    It is the height of dishonesty to keep pretending that trends since last Tuesday disprove AGW.

    Some of you, at least, are smart people. Surely you know this. It is really so difficult for you to admit it??

  10. David Appell

    Your graph gave NCEP CFSR 2-meter temperatures. Are you aware those temperatures come from a model, and not actual temperature measurements?