Meteorologist Paul Dorian at Vencoreweather.com here has a post on the latest concerning El Nino and global sea ice. Not long ago the warmists and alarmists were jumping and hollering about the drop in Arctic sea ice, accompanied by talk (hope) of an ice-free Arctic.
Arctic sea ice rebounds
Looks like all the talk was premature hysteria, as Arctic sea ice has moved back into a normal range. So rapidly can things up there change. It goes to show that natural factors do rule, and that a few tenths of a degree of global warming is nothing but a circus show. Vencoreweather writes:
Concerning the El Nino, ‘it has begun to collapse and will likely flip to a moderate or strong La Nina (colder-than-normal water) by later this year. In rather quick fashion, global temperatures have seemingly responded to the unfolding collapse of El Nino and global sea ice has actually rebounded in recent weeks to near normal levels.”
He adds: “…in recent weeks global sea ice has surged back to near normal as the collapse of El Nino has unfolded.”
Global surface temperatures fall as La Nino wanes
Of course sea ice does not react directly to ENSO changes, and certainly the recent sea ice surge had much more to do with local polar weather conditions. On the other hand, global temperature is in part modulated by the ENSO as the following chart indicates:
The chart above shows that global temperatures have eased back from their high earlier this year.
Arctic ice volume trending sharply upwards over past 5 years
Vencoreweather also presents a chart showing that Arctic sea ice volume trend has remained flat over the past decade, and it has actually been recovering over the past 5 years. All the talk of a death spiral are misplaced, to put it nicely.
Dorian writes that the University of Washington’s Pan-Arctic Ice Ocean Modeling and Assimilation System (PIOMAS) “is showing an upward trend in Arctic sea ice volume since the low point was reached in 2012 following a long downtrend (circled area above)“.
Also Dorian points out that Antarctic sea ice has rebounded and is now above the mean. Overall Antarctic sea ice has been trending upwards since satellite measurements began.
Robust La Nina now in the works
Today Joe Bastardi posted at FaceBook a new chart issued by NOAA, writing: “CFSV2 continues to correct toward SCRIPPS with newest members (blue) now going to strong La Nina territory.
This latest “correction is rather amusing as just weeks ago NOAA predicted that there would not even be a La Nina. perhaps the NOAA allowed itself to become engulfed by all the warming hysteria, before having to scramble to avoid total forecast humiliation.