Tipping Points Postponed Again: Arctic Sea Ice Refuses To Melt …No Real Shrinking In 10 Years!

Japanese climate blogger Kirye caught my eye here at Twitter when posting a comparator chart of Arctic sea ice extent (and thickness) for 2007, 2015 and this year (2016) for September 4. In a nutshell, what is all the alarm about?

She comments that “Arctic ice is not doomed in the real world.” Clearly Arctic sea ice this summer will most likely not set a new record. There’s far more ice up there then what global warming alarmists hysterically projected earlier.

Also a recent chart of Arctic sea ice extent by the National Snow Ice and Data Center (NSIDC) shows that current sea ice extent is some half a million square kilometers over the 2012 level:

NSIDC_09_2016

Source: NSIDC

Clearly over the past years Arctic sea ice has refused to have anything to do with the often claimed “death spiral” and alarmists are always forced to go back a number of years in order to get the sharp downward overall trend they want to see.

Lately, however, it has not been downward at all.

No downward trend over past decade

Looking back at the past 10 years, we see there has been practically no downward trend whatsoever. A chart generated at Woodfortrees here for the past 10 years clearly illustrates this:

WFT_sea ice 07-17

No melt in 10 years! Chart: Woodfortrees

Clearly the Arctic is nowhere near a death spiral, and the polar ice has in fact defied the models and the many earlier predictions that it would disappear by 2015 altogether. With all that ice still up there, it’s time for the sea ice and global warming modelers to discard their equations – and to start over again from scratch.

With millions of square kilometers of ice still up there reflecting summer radiation back into space, it’s time readjust the energy budget.

Tipping points postponed again!

 

40 responses to “Tipping Points Postponed Again: Arctic Sea Ice Refuses To Melt …No Real Shrinking In 10 Years!”

  1. sod

    “Japanese climate blogger Kirye caught my eye here at Twitter when posting a comparator chart of Arctic sea ice extent (and thickness) for 2007, 2015 and this year (2016) for September 4. In a nutshell, what is all the alarm about?”

    so the comparison is with the two lowest years?

    That is insane!

    Extend now seems to be second lowest:

    http://greatwhitecon.info/2016/09/the-2016-arctic-sea-ice-metric-minima/#comment-215516

    Why not plot a trendline looking at the annual minimum? (scroll down to the table)

    http://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/2015/09/

    1. AndyG55

      You yet again show your MONUMENTAL IGNORANCE

      Arctic sea ice is actually at quite high levels compared to the rest of the Holocene.

      The only time it has been higher is during the Little Ice Age, and the slight, gradual and highly beneficial warm-up from what was the coldest period in the last 10,000 years

      Biodata clearly shows that for before the LIA, sea ice levels were often “seasonal” ie basically zero summer sea ice.

      Only a ignorant fool would take a short term period from a EXTREME high sea ice levels and then start to PANIC as it dropped back more towards the norm.

    2. Sunsettommy

      I see that Sod still talking like a dooms dayer,who never grows up.It has been more than 10 years of your silly grasping for straws babblings,that never matures.

      Extent is not a precise measure of the ice from year to year because of factors that are outside of temperature effect on ice.Winds of 2007 and 2012 greatly compacted the ice in August,to make it smaller.When the strong winds of summer were absent extent didn’t drop as much.

      A better measure is MASS of the ice pack,is it growing or is declining? Is there increase or decrease in Multi year amount of ice? Hard to say since warmists focus mostly on one part of the story, EXTENT,which can vary radically in some years from a single powerful storm.

      Warmists generally avoid the observed trend of INCREASING amount of Multi year ice growth,because it doesn’t fit their misleading dishonest CAGW propaganda.

      Grow up Sod!

      1. Leon tesla

        And yet skeptics tend to tout increased Antarctic ice extent rather than mass.

        1. AndyG55
      2. sod

        “Extent is not a precise measure of the ice from year to year because of factors that are outside of temperature effect on ice.Winds of 2007 and 2012 greatly compacted the ice in August,to make it smaller.When the strong winds of summer were absent extent didn’t drop as much.”

        actually it did. we have the second lowest number this year. And that is without your favoured explanation “wind”.

        http://greatwhitecon.info/2016/09/the-2016-arctic-sea-ice-metric-minima/#comment-215516

        Oh the facts, they hurt.

        1. AndyG55

          Jimbo at the GREAT BIG CON site has never, and will never, bother with FACT.

          He is propaganda monkey in the pay of the Exeter UNI climate troughers.

  2. DirkH

    Black Lives Matter goes warmunist, says Climate Change is racist, demands Africans be evacuated to UK to protect them from weather.
    Not kidding.
    http://www.breitbart.com/london/2016/09/06/video-black-lives-matter-shutdown-london-airport-climate-change-racist/

    1. Walt Allensworth

      Which is so funny, because between the Tropic of Cancer and Capricorn, which is much of Africa, there has been almost no warming in the last 40 years according to UAH and RSS MSU temperature data.

      But hey! Facts have not slowed down BLM thus far…

  3. Ron Clutz

    She is correct: Arctic ice extent is on a plateau since 2007. MASIE, the highest resolution and accurate report shows this also. As we speak, Arctic ice is refusing to melt any more this month, despite the typical minimum coming in 11 days.

    https://rclutz.wordpress.com/2016/09/06/arctic-ice-surprises/

    1. AndyG55

      Yep, ZERO trend since 2006.

      https://s19.postimg.io/425r9zipf/Arctic_ice_area_trend.png

      Bet the people living up there would love it to drop further and stay down longer during the year.

      The economic and social benefits would be enormous.

      Fishing, commerce etc etc could all recommence, what a boon that would be.

      Unfortunately, with eth AMO turning down , and the Sun being rather lazy, it looks like the RECOVERY from the EXTREME levels of the LIA is probably over.

  4. sod

    well, cruise ships passing the passage obviously have nothing to do with any tipping point.

    http://www.usatoday.com/story/news/world/2016/08/25/once-impassable-northwest-passage-sees-its-largest-passenger-ship/89330710/

    folks here would not recognise a tipping point if it poked they foot.

    1. ClimateOtter

      Now let’s see that cruise ship do it without the ice-breakers, sod.

    2. AndyG55

      You don’t read or understand ANYTHING do you, child-mind.

      I repeat, because your IGNORANCE of Arctic sea ice history is blatantly abysmal.

      There is no “tipping point”

      All that is happening is that the Arctic has been RECOVERING to lower Arctic sea ice levels of the first 3/4 of the Holocene

      It has been RECOVERING from the COLDEST period in the last 10,000 year .

      OF COURSE the level of sea ice has been dropping.

      But REAL DATA (your enema) shows that this totally beneficial recovery and now basically levelled out.

      1. sod

        “It has been RECOVERING from the COLDEST period in the last 10,000 year . ”

        No, it has not. “recovery2 is not a climate forcing. please learn the basics.

        It also has not “leveled out”.

        do you not notice how absurd your claim is?

        you claim, that the reason of current sea ice status is a process that started 10000 years ago. And at the same time you claim, that the data from the last 10 years tells you, that this process is finished.

        Your position is stupid beyond believe!

        1. AndyG55

          My position is built on FACTS.. Something you know nothing about

          Your position is the utter absurd one, built on a mix of corrupted data and equality corrupted models.

          Do you DENY that the LIA was the coldest period in 10,000 years??

          Do you DENY that the small warming since the miserable depths of that time has been TOTALLY BENEFICIAL?

          And no, the current sea ice status is a RECOVERY from the most EXTREME levels of the LIA.

          Yes the DATA, all the measurements, says it HAS LEVELED OUT.. and as the AMO changes and the sleepy sun take their effect, we will see Arctic sea ice levels start to climb again

          There is only one ignorant, stupid, child-mind here.. and it is not me.

          Do you even know what data is as opposed to models and scamming..

          I don’t think you do.!!

          1. sod

            “Do you even know what data is as opposed to models and scamming..”

            yes, i know what data is.

            The sea ice extend is far below normal.

            http://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/

            Actually it is the second lowest on record:

            https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent

            Volume is also down again:

            http://psc.apl.washington.edu/research/projects/arctic-sea-ice-volume-anomaly/

            and temperatures were seriously out of bounds last year:

            http://cires1.colorado.edu/~aslater/ARCTIC_TAIR/IMG/arctic_925mb_dfa_2016.gif

          2. AndyG55

            “The sea ice extend is far below normal. ”

            You still show that you have absolutely ZERO COMPREHENSION of the real Arctic sea ice levels.

            Multiple papers show that before the LIA, the coldest period of the last 10,000 years, the Arctic sea ice levels were most often seasonal , ie ZERO SUMMER SEA ICE.

            If you want to continue to base you naïve ideas on a short period out of the LIA…

            MORE FOOL YOU!!

            And I really cannot thing of anyone that is more of an IGNORANT FOOL than you keep showing you are.

          3. AndyG55

            “Actually it is the second lowest on record:”

            BULLS**T !!

            https://sunshinehours.files.wordpress.com/2016/09/arctic_sea_ice_extent_zoomed_2016_day_250_1981-2010.png

            Nowhere near 2012, and certainly nowhere near the confirmed ZERO summer sea ice of the pre-LIA.

            Of course if you want to continually showing your ignorance by comparing it to the period of the small and absolutely beneficial rise in temperature out of the coldest period in 10,000 years.. then, by all means, keep making a fool of yourself.

            Its seems to be all you have.

          4. AndyG55

            Current sea ice levels are WAY ABOVE the levels of pre-LIA..

            I know this FACT hurts you, but

            get over it.

  5. Gentletramp

    Maybe Felix Blumer, the professional climate doomsayer on duty of Swiss TV/Radio SRF, should read NTZ:

    http://www.srf.ch/meteo/meteo-news/sonntagsstory-nordpol-bald-eisfrei

    He even removed the 2012 graph from his diagram so that 2016 shall look more dangerous…

    PS
    The point of AndyG55 above is in this discussion most important and mostly overlooked: During several thousand years of the Holocene Climate Optimum there was certainly no summer ice in the Artic (and very likely in the Roman Period and maybe in the MWP as well) and the Gulf stream and the cute polar bears survived these long periods quite well!

    1. sod

      “During several thousand years of the Holocene Climate Optimum there was certainly no summer ice in the Artic”

      That argument is horrible.

      https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/c/ca/Holocene_Temperature_Variations.png

      a look at that time shows, that the difference in temperature to achieve such a massive change is not so big. But in the past, that change was not permanent, like the increase in CO2 is.

      And a huge climate change will now impact billions of people.

      1. AndyG55

        “And a huge climate change will now impact billions of people.”

        The warming change out of the LIA has not been huge, but the only impact on the world’s population of the slight warming out of the LIA has been TOTALLY BENEFICIAL.

        Thank you for acknowledging that FACT.

        Unfortunately, that change/RECOVERY has basically ceased. 🙁

        The world could certainly use another degree of warming and MOST CERTAINLY could use a CONTINUED increase in atmospheric CO2.

        Thankfully, agreements between the US and China have ENSURED that atmospheric CO2 levels will continue to increase 🙂

      2. DirkH

        “And a huge climate change will now impact billions of people.”

        Well plants will grow faster and in more arid regions, that’s for sure. Temperature? Does what it always did.

        Come on Sod the new game in town is Climate Instability.
        http://www.malibutimes.com/blogs/article_6fb6193c-7144-11e6-8368-33de402b681d.html

        Which will threaten the food production! Oh noes! Stock up on Californian almonds while they’re dirt cheap! They are AWESOME with peaches BTW; get them grated and eat a spoonfull with every piece of peach.
        https://dirkhblog.wordpress.com/2016/08/21/stock-up-on-californian-almonds/

      3. Gentletramp

        Sod, and you are – as nearly all chaps of your sort of Chicken Little green fools – a HORRIBLE pessimist and scare-monger. Maybe this informations could help to cure your mental disease:
        http://www.thegwpf.org/content/uploads/2015/10/benefits1.pdf

        Wish you a quick recovery! Regards, GT

    2. tom0mason

      Having no ice at the Arctic would make NO difference to our everyday life. It is a meaningless metric! Just a some nonsense widely put about by the some wealthy Hansen who made a fortune from this nonsense.

      The lost of ice at the North pole indicate what? Zip, nada, nothing! The loss or gain of the ice up there depends more on water temperature than air temperature and how stormy it is in that vicinity.
      Despite all the BS put around alluding to knowing how or why ice is lost or gained, the bottom line is NOBODY really knows. Anyone that says they do is either grossly ignorant or a charlatan.

      So if anyone really thinks they know how the climate will go, then put your money where your mouth is here http://notrickszone.com/join-the-climate-bet-for-charity/

      1. sod

        “Having no ice at the Arctic would make NO difference to our everyday life. It is a meaningless metric!”

        Please learn what albedo is and then come back.

        1. AndyG55

          The ZERO SUMMER SEA ICE of most of the first 3/4 of the Holocene had ZERO serious effects at all..

          We are still here, even after only just surviving the abysmal, freezing period know as the LIA.

          Where do you choose to live, sop… are you in Siberia, or the Arctic, or do you choose to live somewhere a bit WARMER?

        2. AndyG55

          ZERO summer sea ice would be an ABSOLUTE BENEFIT to those living up in that region.

          Commerce, fishing, travel, all would become suddenly more possible.

          The standard of life would lift appreciably.

        3. yonason

          “Please learn what albedo is and then come back.” – sod the credulous

          As I point out below
          http://notrickszone.com/2016/09/06/tipping-points-postponed-again-arctic-sea-ice-refuses-to-melt-no-real-shrinking-in-10-years/comment-page-1/#comment-1130738

          Today annual average temperatures measure as low as 12° Fahrenheit. In contrast Erickson said Colville area annual temperatures 69 million years ago probably averaged about 40° Fahrenheit.”
          ——-
          http://frontierscientists.com/2015/10/alaska-dinosaur-new-species-hadrosaur-ugrunaaluk-kuukpikensis/

          Just how much of your precious albedo could the Arctic have had when it was, on average, probably 28° Fahrenheit WARMER than it is today? The Earth didn’t turn into Venus back then, so how is it supposed to now, from only a tiny fraction of the warming of back then?

          Like all greenies, sod is so gullible he’ll believe any nonsense his handlers tell him.
          http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-0JY3_MpRi3M/UxzKg1rpDbI/AAAAAAAANZc/KywNRgBcrY8/w1200-h630-p-nu/Global+Warming+-+Religion+of+the+Stupid.jpg

  6. Brian H.

    sod7;
    They conclusion is that CO2 is having no effect.
    That trend is permanent.

    1. Brian H.

      The conclusion…

  7. lucklucky

    I notice that the NSIDC chart does not have a 0(zero)…

    1. yonason

      James Hansen, Al Gore, Michael Mann, etc., etc., …

      They have more ZEROS than they know what to do with 😉

  8. yonason

    NORTH POLAR DINOSAURS!

    They lived and thrived in northern Alaska, where “[their]…environment wasn’t as harsh as today’s North Slope. Today annual average temperatures measure as low as 12° Fahrenheit. In contrast Erickson said Colville area annual temperatures 69 million years ago probably averaged about 40° Fahrenheit.”
    http://frontierscientists.com/2015/10/alaska-dinosaur-new-species-hadrosaur-ugrunaaluk-kuukpikensis/

    But then it got COLD! The dinos died. And the enviro-wackos want to keep it cold.

    I wonder if what they’re really afraid of is a return of the dinosaurs?

  9. Graham

    The reason this is rubbish is that you only get the answer you want by using 2007 as the base year. Use any other year and you get the answer you don’t want. It’s called cherry picking and puts a stain on any more rational argument you may have.

    1. AndyG55

      So, child-mind.. you are only interested in what happened before the current TURNING POINT in Arctic sea ice.

      You are basically admitting your gross ignorance of anything to do with ocean cycles.

      We are use to that ignorance from climate trolls, so don’t be too embarrassed.

  10. Publius

    I hope you realize that when the ocean warms it causes ice to melt, you know, the part that is NOT in the water. This causes a runaway effect. We know this from basic physics. When water heats up, it expands. So when the ocean warms, sea level rises. When ice is exposed to heat, it melts. And when ice on land melts and water runs into the ocean, sea level rises. Your data is incomplete. The information below is also from NASA.

    Also Antarctica sea ice has seen a small increase of 1.8% (~219,000 km2; 85,000 mi2) per decade from 1979-2008 while the Arctic has seen a significant decrease of 4.4% (~520,000 km2; 201,000 mi2) per decade of ice. Arctic sea ice is typically 2m thick while Antarctic is typically 1m thick.

    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/28829a6661285d3188fddb0f8b8c93e30e4ae9f7ead9d41a5c682022ab8bc5c0.png
    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/919326708d59a0fe78e7e83acd61a2db0be92c1b9d65e3124039ea7483bba0f1.png

    Here is a video demonstrating some of the data: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GTBWjDUkTzI

    Sources: https://nsidc.org/cryosphere/seaice/characteristics/difference.html
    https://nsidc.org/data/nsidc-0192
    http://climate.nasa.gov/news/2328/warming-seas-and-melting-ice-sheets/