German Electricity Price Projected To Quadruple By 2020, To Over 40 Cents Per Kilowatt-Hour!

Once ballyhooed as a cheap source of energy (“The sun doesn’t send an electric bill”), Germany’s attempted transition to wind and solar energy is rapidly heading towards a full-blown central planning folly of historic dimensions.

The German electricity consumer advocacy group NAEB projects that Germany’s electric power rates will continue to soar, possibly reaching an industry back-breaking 45 euro cents per kilowatt-hour by 2020, and even higher over the years that follow.

NAEB power price projections for 2020. Note that the horizontal scale changes at the year 2010 in order to condense the chart. The upper curve shows German electricity prices in euro-cents per kilowatt-hour, the middle curve shows the price for France and the lower curve for the USA. Source: NAEB.

Currently German power costs about 30 euro-cents per kilowatt-hour, and so are among the highest worldwide. The price is projected to soar another 50% rise to 45 cents by 2020. That would make German power 4 times more expensive than US power, and more than double that of France. This poses a real threat to German economic competitiveness.

Although the growth in German electricity prices have slowed some since 2015, the gap between German prices and other competing countries is as gaping as ever, with no relief in sight. In fact USA’s prices could even soon begin to ease off.

The NAEB writes:

For the Germany curve, one clearly sees the effects of market liberalization starting in the mid 1990s. Since 2000 the Energiewende mercilessly went into action! In 2015 we updated the estimates.”

The trend bodes ill for Germany’s energy-intensive sectors such as chemicals, glass and cement. The growing chasm compared to prices in USA and France risks a severe erosion of Germany’s domestic industry and long-term economic growth.

 

51 responses to “German Electricity Price Projected To Quadruple By 2020, To Over 40 Cents Per Kilowatt-Hour!”

  1. Dale

    Going from 30 cents to 45 cents is not “quadrupling” German electricity prices. It sounds more in the range of about a 50% increase…

    1. richard verney

      Quadrupling is from the start of this millennium when Germany embarked full steam ahead with this mad adventure.

  2. Robert Christopher

    It’s quadrupling from the 2000 price – it must be a baseline that Germans use.

    1. sod

      “It’s quadrupling from the 2000 price – it must be a baseline that Germans use.”

      no, it is not. it is a low point in that graph and that for the obvious point for a sceptic to start a trend (unless it is about warming, then you would start at a peak).

      1. AndyG55

        No, child-mind, its from the start of the renewables stupidity in about 1998.

        I hope your granny can still afford your heating.

        1. SebastianH

          Except prices weren’t as low back then …

          https://www.financescout24.de/media/1966/bmwi-strompreisentwicklung-industrie-vs-private-haushalte_L.jpg

          The dark points in that graph mark the electricity price for heavy industries, the light blue points are prices for light industries and the highest series are prices for private households.

          This is a relative to 1998 index:
          https://de.statista.com/statistik/daten/studie/234370/umfrage/entwicklung-der-haushaltsstrompreise-in-deutschland/

          Current prices are 68% higher than in 1998 … inflation alone accounts for half of that increase.

        2. sod

          “No, child-mind, its from the start of the renewables stupidity in about 1998.”

          nothing but insults. On facts, you are wrong of course.

          There was a significant (20% DROP in prices between 1998 and 2000.

          http://www.energiezukunft.eu/typo3temp/pics/umwelt_leben_strompreise_1998-2015_bdew_cc7a01c0f0.jpg

          1. AndyG55

            wow 20% drop in two years..

            that is some economic collapse you have highlighted there , sob !!\\

            Perhaps you ought to read what your tweedledum-chum said…..

            “Current prices are 68% higher than in 1998 ”

            ——————————-

            Seb says.. “Except prices weren’t as low back then … ”

            No seb, the anti-CO2 scam started way earlier, so of course the prices were high.

            How many feet do you guys have to fit in each other gobs ???????

            Foot in mouth seem endemic with you.

      2. David Johnson

        You really are a fool SOD. Why say so many things that are so obviously false that end up with you being ridiculed.

  3. sod

    The source of this graph is not pro-consumer but anti EEG. They simply got their first data point wrong already:

    https://1-stromvergleich.com/medien/strompreise-16.png

    this is the type of statistic that i prefer:

    http://www.energiezukunft.eu/typo3temp/pics/umwelt_leben_strompreise_1998-2015_bdew_cc7a01c0f0.jpg

    1. richard verney

      The thrust of the article is about industrial competitiveness.

      The US has seen very stable energy prices, and with ever more shale, and possibly a return to coal, its energy prices may even drop. Great for US industry, which is why the new President favours that policy.

      Unfortunately, for Germany, energy prices are on an upward spiral. This makes it ever more difficult to compete with the likes of the US and China which both have substantially lower energy costs, and China lower wages.

      It does not look good for an industrial power house. Already German petrochemical companies have increased their investment in the US and are repositioning, and this is because they are energy intensive industries such that the cost of energy is a major factor to their competitiveness on a global stage.

      1. SebastianH

        The thrust of the article is about industrial competitiveness.

        The mentioned energy prices are not the industry prices. It’s mainly households that are paying the bill for the Energiewende.

        https://www.financescout24.de/media/1966/bmwi-strompreisentwicklung-industrie-vs-private-haushalte_L.jpg

        P.S.: Heavy industry is often producing their own power.

        1. richard verney

          I am well aware that German Industry gets a rebate (or subsidy however you wish to refer to it) on its energy costs, but of course someone has to bear the financing of that rebate, and that creates its own fiscal drag on the economy.

          1. sod

            “I am well aware that German Industry gets a rebate (or subsidy however you wish to refer to it) on its energy costs, but of course someone has to bear the financing of that rebate, and that creates its own fiscal drag on the economy.”

            this is getting absurd. The private households are financing the heavy industry. But you complain about the higher electricity prices for households AND about the “subsidy”.

          2. SebastianH
      2. SebastianH

        Also: the horrible 90s design of that NAEB website should give a hint about the thrustworthiness of their estimations …

        1. AndyG55

          We feel the same way about your posts , seb

          STILL waiting for a paper to back up the very basis of your totalitarian, socialist AGW religion.

  4. Rob

    Here’s another chart that sums up the situation nicely.

    https://wattsupwiththat.com/2017/02/10/claim-new-green-danish-facebook-data-centre-will-increase-co2-emissions/

    The more renewables, the more you pay.
    It will quadruple the US prices.

    1. sod

      That article is horrible and shows a total lack of understanding of the electricity market and basic economics.

      That data centre would be build somewhere. Now it is being build in Denmark and will run on 50+% renewables (that is good news).

      “The more renewables, the more you pay.
      It will quadruple the US prices.”

      maybe it will (this would be good). But at the same time, use of electricity would go down. so the average household would pay only a little more and would not even notice the change (neither in electricity use).

      1. Rob

        Sod, move to North Korea, you will like it there.

        1. Rob
      2. AndyG55

        I think you will find that many household are at their bare minimum now.

        But what do you care !

        Its only people who will be suffering, right sob. !

        You have your granny paying for your inner-city ghetto basement heating.

        1. SebastianH

          How many? And why can’t those households pay for their electricity anymore? What else can’t they afford?

          1. richard verney

            In the UK, there are millions of pensioners whose only income is the state pension which is presently just under £120 per week €7,300 per year. If the recipient has worked less than 30 years, then the recipient gets even less, and there are many in that category.

            Try living off that.

            What is your annual income by comparison?

          2. AndyG55

            You are a boringly predictable Norwegian blue troll, seb.

          3. AndyG55

            It seems seb lives in ease with heaps of taxpayer funding, drives a Mercedes too.
            A leftist socialite living off someone else’s tad, almost certainly.

            Has very little knowledge or understanding of people apart from his latte sipping inner-city yuppy scammers…

            And obviously he DOESN’T EVEN CARE.

            Some people DENY other acts in history where political agendas purposely put many people’s lives in danger.

            Its a particularly distasteful and anti-human sort of denial, wouldn’t you agree, seb. !

          4. SebastianH

            So, what else can’t the poor afford? Heating? Housing? Should that be made cheaper too?

          5. AndyG55

            Poor despicable seb !

            Couldn’t a care one iota about other people having to choose between food or heating, its OK, just DENY there is a problem.. that’ll fix it.

            Couldn’t give a stuff about third world countries being denied solid energy supply by the anti-CO2 agenda, energy that would allow them to at least start heading out of abject poverty.

            It really is a sickening, disgusting religious cult you are stuck in, seb.

          6. SebastianH

            Nobody needs to chose between food or heating in Germany.

            There are problems that need fixing, cheap energy for the poor doesn’t fix the poor being poor.

            Who denies anyone energy in the third world? WTF is wrong with you?

          7. AndyG55
  5. Graeme No.3

    sod – it is you who shows a total lack of understanding of the electricity market and basic economics. Whether you are horrible I leave to others to decide.

  6. Robert Folkerts

    sod says
    “It will quadruple the US prices.” maybe it will (this would be good). But at the same time, use of electricity would go down. so the average household would pay only a little more and would not even notice the change (neither in electricity use)”

    I suspect sod, you don’t exist in a competitive environment, do you?

    Spewing forth ” insane” ” horrible” [to use two of sod’s favourite words] garbage like this gives away a lot about yourself.

    Clearly an ideological twit. That’s not name calling sod, just a reasonable description of you from your ideas espoused within your writings.

    1. sod

      “I suspect sod, you don’t exist in a competitive environment, do you?2

      i am posting on this blog, not in some leftist circle.

      but hey, that is just another fact!

      germany by the way has seen a DROP in electricity prices for big industries. They are getting MORE competitive, not less.

      But that is also just another fact…

      1. AndyG55

        Yes, and thanks for showing us all just how dumb and ignorant the average AGW cultist is..

        (although, surely they can’t all be as dumb and ignorant as you and seb)

  7. John F. Hultquist

    [Living in central Washington State, USA.]
    We have an all-electric house, and if the power goes off we burn wood to heat the house. We could use an outside charcoal grill for cooking if the power was off for more than a few hours. Some others near us use propane but I think they might need electricity for that to run also. (I really don’t know.)
    There is no way a large increase in the cost of electricity could be considered a good thing.
    I would call it a totally unnecessary destruction of wealth. Look up “cash for clunkers” for an example. Official name: Car Allowance Rebate System (CARS)
    The “clunkers” traded in were destroyed, even though they were still usable vehicles. They were taken out of the used car market and so were not available for the less affluent. One write claimed: “… the program “sticks it” to the poor and lower-middle classes by raising the price of the remaining cars in the secondary market, … call it the “I Hate the Poor Act of 2009.”

    Germany is destroying wealth about as fast as possible without (yet) causing riots.

    1. sod

      Sorry, butr the amount of total garbage written here is simply shocking.

      you have to consider the AGE of the electricity infrastructure if you want to make comparisons.

      Running on your 40 year old oil heating system will look pretty cheap at the current low oil price, right up to the moment when it breaks down and you have to buy a new one at huge cost and against the uncertainty of future oil prices.

      In the same way, a state running a system of old coal plants (written off decades ago) will look good in comparison with a system of new gas, wind and solar plants right until the coal plants need major investments and the solar and wind plants are written off as well.

      You are drawing a trend line starting at the lowest point (2000, chosen purely for that reason) to the possibly highest point before the first solar and wind plants are leaving their EEG scheme.

      I call this a trick!

      1. AndyG55

        “Sorry, butr the amount of total garbage written here is simply shocking.”

        Then…. STOP WRITING IT !!!

  8. AndyG55

    A video for all.

    NO anthropogenic CO2 signal

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=l-E5y9piHNU

    1. SebastianH

      Surprise, sine waves derived from a FFT of real data match the real data …

      I have another one for you: 5 + 6 = 11 and 11 – 6 = 5 … who would have thought that? 😉

      P.S.: Continuing those sine waves results in a sharp drop after 2000. Convenient that the timeline of a presentation given in 2016 ends that much earlier.

      1. AndyG55

        Wow.. seb got past primary school. !!

        Can do basic arithmetic.

        Now I am stunned. !!

        You do know that the El Nino was a huge release of energy from the oceans, don’t you..??

        No, probably not.

        The temperatures over the next year or so will be interesting…

        …. but even someone as thick as you must know that they will be heading downwards.

    2. sod

      6 sin cycles added together. you can basically get every curve from such an approach.

    3. AndyG55

      Why do you keep rejecting peer-reviewed papers?

      first several papers on the gravity/thermal effect

      then a natural cycle paper

      …both of which rule out any religious warming from CO2.

      Is it because of your abject failure to produce one showing that CO2 causes warming in a convective atmosphere?

      A ‘jealousy’ brain-wash ignorance sort of thing.

      REAL Science seems to be an enema to you.

      1. SebastianH

        This one doesn’t rule out CO effects. That was in the draft that was rejected. Their final paper was published despite ignoring advice by the reviewers to test their theory by deriving those waves from a period with low or no humans CO2 emission and see if this could accurately predict the temperatures in recent times.

        There is no “real science” to this paper. It’s basically proving that you can do a DFT to any curve and reconstruct it from the result.

        1. AndyG55

          Again the DENIAL of peer reviewed science…

          DENIAL is all that you have left to you, poor sleb.

          And STILL you are totally unable to produce one paper that support your slimy, anti-human, anti-progress, cultist religion. PATHETIC

          You certainly are looking to be TOTALLY INADEQUATE, and doing a great did-service to your AGW priests in the process.

          People are LAUGHING at you.. you are a CLOWN

          But then you are an AGW apostle…

          …. so INADEQUATE goes with the territory.

          1. SebastianH

            I am the clown? Just take a look at your comment …

  9. DirkH

    On the positive side, I don’t drive an electric car, so sucks to be you, idiot Tesla owners.

  10. Dave Ward

    http://dailycaller.com/2017/02/28/germany-facing-mass-blackouts-because-the-wind-and-sun-wont-cooperate/

    Here’s another one for sod to deny. Oh, wait – it comes from a trade union, and we all know that unions are left wing, so he can’t possibly call this report rubbish…

    1. SebastianH

      So on the one hand you don’t like climate alarmism, but when something like the “daily caller” writes alarming stories about blackouts that never happened and are unlikely to happen, it’s ok? I see 😉

      P.S.: the article claims the average German would pay 39 Dollar cents per kWh and other falsehoods. If you go on a portal like Check24 to compare prices right now you’ll get offered 26 Dollar cents per kWh. Regarding average U.S. prices: do price tables like this (https://www.eia.gov/electricity/monthly/epm_table_grapher.cfm?t=epmt_5_6_a) include taxes?

      1. Dave Ward

        “And are unlikely to happen”

        “A major blackout almost occurred Jan. 24 and was only prevented when German energy suppliers “also took the last reserve power plant,”

        The day that “last reserve” plant refuses to come on line when asked your “Unlikely” WILL happen. It’s only a matter of time… I wonder if you or sob would be happy flying across the Pacific in an aircraft with the same haphazard approach to its control and power systems that you seem happy to inflict on millions of people? Oh, I forgot, you live such ECO friendly lives that you would never set foot on such a polluting mode of transport…

        1. SebastianH

          Go to https://energy-charts.de/energy.htm … choose daily and all sources. Look at the end of January 2017 and write down the gas usage. Now look at the end of January 2016 and compare. Do the same on https://energy-charts.de/power.htm and compare.

          Do you still believe that the power grid was on its “last reserve” in January 2017?

  11. gallopingcamel

    Living in Brevard county (Florida) I pay $0.10 per kVAh right on the US average. Connecticut has the highest electricity prices in the USA @ $0.18 per kVAh while rates are as low as $0.05 in Tennessee.

    Things would get ugly here if someone suggested $0.31 per kVAh as in Germany. Apparently our intellectual betters who live in Europe can tolerate much more “Stupid Government” than us dumb Americans.