Veteran Hurricane Forecasting Guru Predicts 2018 Season Could Even Be Worse Than Last Year’s Destructive Season

Former NOAA, veteran meteorologist David Dilley of Global Weather Oscillations predicts the coming 2018 hurricane season could be even worse than 2017’s already harsh season. The reason: natural cycles have the Atlantic in an active phase.

Image: NASA, public domain.

Last year Dilley predicted already in February that the southern tip of Florida would be hit by a major hurricane, one that would move northward through the state after making landfall, and that this southern Florida zone overall would enter the strongest and most active hurricane cycle since the period from 1945 to 1950 (65 to 70 years ago).

In his February, 2017 forecast he predicted the USA’s record 12-year run without a major hurricane hit would end in a big way. And it did.

Dilley’s forecasting is not based on global warming, but rather on natural weather cycles that the globe experiences over years, decades and even centuries. The 45-year veteran meteorologist boasts that his Global Weather Oscillations (GWO) forecast was “the only organization correctly predicting last year’s Atlantic hurricane season and destructive landfalls.”

Dilley says that “some United States zones are currently in their strongest hurricane landfall cycle in 40 to 70-years.” This is a Natural Climate Pulse Cycle that produced extremely active and dangerous hurricane conditions in some zones back in the 1930s and 1940s – and is now repeating.

Mr. Dilley predicts that 2018 will be somewhat of a repeat of 2017 – and possibly another record breaker.

He says: “We can expect 16 named storms, 8 hurricanes, 4 major hurricanes, potential for 4 United States hurricane landfalls – 2 of which will likely be major impact storms” and that there is the potential for 6 named storms making United States landfalls. On the average, the entire Atlantic Basin has 12 named storms, 6 hurricanes and 2.7 major hurricanes.

“The reason for another destructive hurricane season is 3-fold,” says Dilley. “The ocean water temperatures continue to run warmer than normal across most of the Atlantic Basin, and especially in the Caribbean region and the Atlantic near the United States. This is very similar to the ocean temperatures of last year, and this will again be conducive for tropical storms and/or hurricanes forming and/or strengthening close to the United States.”

Mr. Dilley also expects the Bermuda-Azores High Pressure Center will again be in a favorable location – thus allowing more named storms to maintain strength – or strengthen as they move from east to west across the Atlantic toward the United States.

Then there’s the last item, Dilley says: El Niño. GWO’s model indicates that the Tropical South Pacific Ocean temperatures where El Niño events typically form – will warm significantly during late winter and approach weak El Niño conditions during the spring- much like the El Niño scare of last year. However, all years are not the same – therefore it could mature enough to form a very weak El Niño, but not strong enough to dampen the hurricane season. Historical records indicate that moderate to strong El Nino events dampen hurricane activity – whereas years with very weak El Niño conditions can be associated with active hurricane seasons if a Climate Pulse Hurricane Enhancement Cycle is in place – and it is.

 

15 responses to “Veteran Hurricane Forecasting Guru Predicts 2018 Season Could Even Be Worse Than Last Year’s Destructive Season”

  1. Stephen Richards

    “Could be” is not a forecast. I’ll wait for Joe Bastardi

  2. yonason (from my cell phone)

    I invested in a generator last year. Got it the day before Irma hit. After the storm was over, no sooner had I hooked it up to my fridge and chest freezer than the power came back on. But if it hadn’t, that generator would have saved its purchase price worth of food, not to mention keeping me from going hungry.

    Looks like I am now at least electrically prepared for next year’s “climate disruption.”

    As long as by the time they get to me they are no worse than Irma or Francis (Cat 1 or 2), I should be ok.

  3. RAH

    Interesting to see what Levi and Joe have to say come spring when they start putting out their outlooks. I would not be surprised at all if they are not similar to this one though. Joe is already talking about the persistent cold water west of Australia ending the current La Nina. So there seems to be some agreement already.

  4. tom0mason

    Considering how short and patchy the hurricane records are IMO “Mr. Dilley predicts that 2018 will be somewhat of a repeat of 2017 – and possibly another record breaker. should not come as any surprise. That is unless someone has a complete and verifiably accurate records of hurricanes going back at least say a 1,000 years or more.

  5. Pochas

    Hurricanes will come back when solar activity comes back. They’re just guessing.

    1. RAH

      There are studies linking high Atlantic hurricane activity to both low and high solar activity. But the problem with any those studies is that we simply don’t have accurate data for how active any particular hurricane season was prior to the satellite era.

      So I trust outlooks and forecasts for tropical storm incidence, severity, and behavior based on using the meteorological methods developed by the likes of the late Bill Gray and others over any such single metric, such as solar activity. And besides, though the sun spot record is the longest running in science, all other more detailed measures of solar activity have a much shorter record.

  6. AndyG55

    OT Paul is uncovering more unjustified data “adjustments” in the US

    https://notalotofpeopleknowthat.wordpress.com/2018/01/26/tobs-at-ithaca/#more-31967

    This really is tantamount to flagrant deception and fraud.

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