By Kenneth Richard on 10. May 2018
During 2017, there were 150 graphs from 122 scientific papers published in peer-reviewed journals indicating modern temperatures are not unprecedented, unusual, or hockey-stick-shaped — nor do they fall outside the range of natural variability. We are a little over 4 months into the new publication year and already 81 graphs from 62 scientific papers undermine claims that modern era warming is climatically unusual.
“In this study we present a detailed GDGT data set covering the last 13,000 years from a peat sequence in the Changbai Mountain in NE China. The brGDGT-based temperature reconstruction from Gushantun peat indicates that mean annual air temperatures in NE China during the early Holocene were 5–7°C higher than today. Furthermore, MAAT records from the Chinese Loess Plateau also suggested temperature maxima 7–9°C higher than modern during the early Holocene (Peterse et al., 2014; Gao et al., 2012; Jia et al., 2013). Consequently, we consider the temperatures obtained using the global peat calibration to be representative of climate in (NE) China. … The highest temperatures occurred between ca. 8 and 6.8 kyr BP, with occasional annual mean temperatures >8.0 ± 4.7°C, compared to the modern-day MAAT of ∼3°C.”
“We estimate that air temperatures were 2.5–3.0 °C higher during the Holocene Thermal Maximum than the local 1960–1990 average. … Between 1700 and 1925 CE temperatures were likely 0.6–0.8 °C lower than the 1950–2015 reference temperature.“
“Iceland’s terrestrial HTM [Holocene Thermal Maximum] has previously been constrained to ~7.9 to 5.5 ka based on qualitative lake sediment proxies (Larsen et al., 2012; Geirsdottir et al., 2013), likely in association with progressive strengthening and warming of the Irminger Current (Castaneda et al., 2004; Smith et al., 2005; Olafsdottir et al., 2010). Numerical modeling experiments for Drangajokull suggest that peak air temperatures were 2.5 – 3°C warmer at this time relative to the 1961-1990 CE average (Anderson et al., 2018). … During the Little Ice Age (LIA, 1250-1850 CE), the Vestfirðir region entered the lowest multi centennial spring/summer temperature anomalies of the last 9 ka. Based on recent numerical modeling simulations, this anomaly is estimated to be 0.6-0.8°C below the 1950-2015 average on Vestfirðir (Anderson et al., 2018).”
“[C]limate anomalies appear to be reflected in the Tunu VA [vanillic acid] record, with elevated VA [vanillic acid] during the warm periods and lower levels during the colder periods. The data suggest a positive correlation between North American fire and hemispheric mean temperature. This relationship could be due to climate-driven changes in temperature or precipitation on burning extent, frequency, or location, as well as to changes in atmospheric transport patterns. … … [E]levated VA [vanillic acid] early in the record [Roman Warm Period] and around the MCA [Medieval Climate Anomaly]. It also emphasizes the decreasing trend from 1200-1900 CE [Little Ice Age] and the increase during the 20th century [Current Warm Period].”
“The record demonstrates a warming during the Roman Warm Period (~350 BCE – 450 CE), variable bottom water temperatures during the Dark Ages (~450 – 850 CE), positive bottom water temperature anomalies during the Viking Age/Medieval Climate Anomaly (~850 – 1350 CE) and a long-term cooling with distinct multidecadal variability during the Little Ice Age (~1350 – 1850 CE). The fjord BWT [bottom water temperatures] record also picks up the contemporary warming of the 20th century, which does not stand out in the 2500-year perspective and is of the same magnitude as the Roman Warm Period and the Medieval Climate Anomaly.”
“Our reconstructed Tmax [temperature maximum] for these warmer conditions peaks around 1390 CE at + 0.8 °C above the 1961–90 mean, similar to the peak Tmax during the RWP [Roman Warm Period]. These results are aligned with the findings that show the period from 1150 to 1350 CE to be the warmest pre-industrial chronzone of the past 1000 yrs for southeast Australia.”
“Reconstructed temperatures are generally coolest between 300 and 800 CE (Tavg = 2.24 ± 0.98°C), displaying three temperature minima centered at 410 CE (1.34 ± 0.72°C), 545 CE (1.91 ± 0.69°C), and 705 CE (1.49 ± 0.69°C). Temperatures then rapidly increased, reaching the warmest interval (800–1000 CE) in the approximately 1700-year record. During this interval, average temperatures were 3.31 ± 0.65°C, with a maximum temperature of 3.98°C.”
“There are also other studies that suggest that the recent climate warming over the southeastern TP actually began in the 1820s (Shi et al., 2015). However, a few reconstructions from the west and northwest parts of Sichuan or from the southeastern TP indicate that there were no obvious increase of temperature during the past decades (Li et al., 2015b; Zhu et al., 2016).”
“The longest sustained period of relatively high temperatures in the reconstructions is the post 1950 CE period although there are clearly individual years much earlier that were warmer than any in the post-1950 period.”
“The three historical moraine crests indicate that there were at least three ice-margin stillstands or advances during historical time. Summer temperature records from North lake (Axford et al. 2013) and Lake N3 (Thomas et al. 2016) broadly register cooling in the past 200 years in western Greenland, which likely influenced the advance to the historical moraines.”
“From c. 1.5 ka BP onwards, we record a prominent subsurface cooling and continued occurrence of fresh and sea‐ice loaded surface waters at the study site.”
“The early Holocene was marked by relatively stable temperatures that exceeded modern by ~2 to 3°C. Inferred temperatures generally decrease through the remainder of the Holocene.”
“Between ca. 8.4-4 ka cal BP [8,400 to 4,000 years before present], our site [Italian Alps] experienced a mean TJuly of ca. 12.4 °C, i.e. 3.1 °C warmer than today [9.3 °C]. … Between 7400 and 3600 yrs cal BP, an higher-than-today forest line position persisted under favorable growing conditions (i.e. TJuly at ca. 12 °C).”
“[A] general warm to cold climate trend from the mid-Holocene to the present, which can be divided into two different stages: a warmer stage between 6842 and 1297 cal yr BP and a colder stage from 1297 cal yr BP to the present.”
“[W]e find evidence of distinct late Holocene millennial-scale phases of enhanced El Niño/La Niña development, which appear synchronous with northern hemispheric climatic variability. … Phases of dominant El Niño-like states occur parallel to North Atlantic cold phases: the ‘2800 years BP cooling event’, the ‘Dark Ages’ and the ‘Little Ice Age’, whereas the ‘Roman Warm Period’ and the ‘Medieval Climate Anomaly’ parallel periods of a predominant La Niña-like state.”
“…its climatic tolerance limits were used to infer July mean temperatures exceeding modern values by 2.8°C at this time [8200-6700 cal yr BP] (Magyari et al., 2012).”
“Historical and remote-sensing records indicate that Nordenskiöld Gletscher has been stable or advancing since AD 1950 (Weidick, 1968, 1994).”
“A large fraction of the Baltic Proper became hypoxic again between 1.4 and 0.7 ka BP, during the Medieval Climate Anomaly (MCA), when mean air temperatures were 0.9–1.4 °C higher than temperatures recorded in the period 1961–1990 (e.g. Mann et al., 2009; Jilbert and Slomp, 2013).”
“Coral derived sea surface temperature (SST-Sr/Ca) reconstructions demonstrate conditions ∼1 ◦C warmer than present at ∼6200 (recalibrated 14C) and 4700 yr BP, with a suggested increase in salinity range (δ18O) associated with amplified seasonal flood events, suggestive of La Niña (Gagan et al., 1998; Roche et al., 2014).”
“The authors examined the variability of activity of modern glaciation and variation of natural conditions of the periglacial zone on climate and on dendrochronological data. Results of larch and Siberian stone pine growth data were revealed at the higher border of forest communities. … It is believed that the temperature could be 3.5 °C warmer at the Holocene optimum than at the present time (Vaganov and Shiyatov 2005). … Since 2000, there has been growth of trees instability associated with a decrease in average monthly summer temperatures. … Since the beginning of 2000, decrease in summer temperatures was marked.”
“The postglacial occurrence of relatively warm/dry and warm/wet intervals is consistent with results of a regional climate‐model simulation that indicates warmer than present temperatures and decreased effective moisture at 11 000 cal. a BP and persistence of warm conditions but with greater moisture and longer growing season at 6000 cal. a BP.”
“This study provides evidence that thermal coral bleaching events have occurred in the warmer mid-Holocene (where maximum monthly summer SST was 2 °C higher than at present) in Hainan island. … [C]oral bleaching events under high SST conditions have already occurred in the mid-Holocene and are by no means a new ecological phenomenon of current global warming.”
20th/21st Centuries Non-Warming
“In locations best sheltered and protected against ocean air influence, the vast majority of thermometers worldwide trends show temperatures in recent decades rather similar to the 1920–1950 period. This indicates that the present-day atmosphere and heat balance over the Earth cannot warm areas – typically valleys – worldwide in good shelter from ocean trends notably more than the atmosphere could in the 1920–1950 period. … [T]he lack of warming in the OAS temperature trends after 1950 should be considered when evaluating the climatic effects of changes in the Earth’s atmospheric trace amounts of greenhouse gasses as well as variations in solar conditions.”
“We present a novel approach to characterize the spatiotemporal evolution of regional cooling across the eastern U.S. (commonly called the U.S. warming hole), by defining a spatially explicit boundary around the region of most persistent cooling. The warming hole emerges after a regime shift in 1958 where annual maximum (Tmax) and minimum (Tmin) temperatures decreased by 0.46°C and 0.83°C respectively.”
“During the third segment (1870–2001), the maximum temperature pattern seemed to be constant compared to the changing rate (+0.004 °C/decade). … The short fourth segment, which occurred from 2002 to 2013, showed a deceasing trend at a rate of -0.12 °C/decade.”
“Here we quantify trends in satellite-derived land surface temperatures and modelled air temperatures, validated against observations, across the entire ice-free Greenland. … Warming trends observed from 1986–2016 across the ice-free Greenland is mainly related to warming in the 1990’s. The most recent and detailed trends based on MODIS (2001–2015) shows contrasting trends across Greenland, and if any general trend it is mostly a cooling. The MODIS dataset provides a unique detailed picture of spatiotemporally distributed changes during the last 15 years. … Figure 3 shows that on an annual basis, less than 36% of the ice-free Greenland has experienced a significant trend and, if any, a cooling is observed during the last 15 years (<0.15 °C change per year).”
“[A] majority (12/14) of the regions within the SAM [Southern Appalachian Mountains] have experienced a long-term decline in mean winter temperatures since 1910. Even after removing the highly anomalous 2009-2010 winter season, which was more than two standard deviations away from the long-term mean, the cooling of mean winter temperatures is still evident. … Higher winter temperatures dominated the early 20th century in the SAM [Southern Appalachian Mountains] with nine of the ten warmest winter seasons on record in the region having occurred before 1960. The 1931-1932 winter season, the warmest on record, averaged 8.0°C for DJF [December-February], nearly 4.7°C higher than the 1987-2017 normal mean winter temperature of 3.3°C. … Despite the 2016-2017 winter season finishing with the highest mean temperatures (5.7ºC) observed in the SAM [Southern Appalachian Mountains] since 1956-1957, there have been several years of anomalous negative temperature anomalies, with the 2009-2010 (0.3ºC) and 2010-2011 (1.2ºC) winter seasons finishing as two of the coldest on record for all regions.”
“Observed Southern Ocean changes over recent decades include a surface freshening (Durack and Wijffels 2010; Durack et al. 2012; de Lavergne et al. 2014), surface cooling (Fan et al. 2014; Marshall et al. 2014; Armour et al. 2016; Purich et al. 2016a) and circumpolar increase in Antarctic sea ice (Cavalieri and Parkinson 2008; Comiso and Nishio 2008; Parkinson and Cavalieri 2012). … Our results suggest that recent multi-decadal trends in large-scale surface salinity over the Southern Ocean have played a role in the observed surface cooling seen in this region. … The majority of CMIP5 models do not simulate a surface cooling and increase in sea ice, as seen in observations.”
“This study finds recent (post-1979) surface cooling of East Antarctica during austral autumn to also be tied to tropical forcing, namely, an increase in La Niña events. … The South Atlantic anticyclone is associated with cold air advection, weakened northerlies, and increased sea ice concentrations across the western East Antarctic coast, which has increased the rate of cooling at Novolazarevskaya and Syowa stations after 1979. This enhanced cooling over western East Antarctica is tied more broadly to a zonally asymmetric temperature trend pattern across East Antarctica during autumn that is consistent with a tropically forced Rossby wave rather than a SAM pattern; the positive SAM pattern is associated with ubiquitous cooling across East Antarctica.”
“Recent surface cooling in the Yellow and East China Seas and the associated North Pacific climate regime shift … The Yellow and East China Seas (YECS) are widely believed to have experienced robust, basin-scale warming over the last few decades. However, the warming reached a peak in the late 1990s, followed by a significant cooling trend. … The most striking evolution pattern is that a robust warming trend at a rate of +0.40°C per decade reached a peak in the late 1990s, and then it turned downward at a rate of −0.36°C per decade. The positive and then negative trends are estimated throughout the YECS for the periods 1982−1997.”
“The link between boreal winter cooling over the midlatitudes of Asia and the Barents Oscillation (BO) since the late 1980s is discussed in this study, based on five datasets. Results indicate that there is a large-scale boreal winter cooling during 1990–2015 over the Asian midlatitudes, and that it is a part of the decadal oscillations of long-term surface air temperature (SAT) anomalies.”
“Previous studies have identified spatial and temporal trends in temperature and precipitation in Chile over recent decades. Temperature rose significantly during the mid to late 20th century in coastal locations between 18 to 33 °S (Rosenblüth et al., 1997), but then started to decrease, with a cooling trend up to -0.20ºC decade-1 dominating over the past 20-30 years (Falvey and Garreaud, 2009).”
“Active layer monitoring in Antarctica: an overview of results from 2006 to 2015 … Air temperatures showed significant regional differences within the study areas. In the western Antarctic Peninsula region, Vestfold Hills and northern Victoria Land, a slight air temperature cooling was detected, while at other sites in Victoria Land and East Antarctica the air temperature was more irregular, showing no strong overall trend of warming or cooling during the study period (Figure 2). The Antarctic Peninsula region has been reported as the most rapidly warming part of Antarctica (e.g. Turner et al., 2005, 2014), but cooling has been reported since 2000 (Turner et al., 2016). Relatively stable air temperature conditions during the past 20 years were reported in Victoria Land (Guglielmin & Cannone, 2012).”
“The present paper reviews the progress of India’s scientific research in polar meteorology. The analysis of 25 years meteorological data collected at Maitri station for the period 1991–2015 is presented in the paper. The observed trend in the temperature data of 19 Antarctic stations obtained from READER project for the period 1991–2015 has also been examined. The 25 years long term temperature record shows cooling over Maitri station. The Maitri station showed cooling of 0.054 °C per year between 1991 and 2015, with similar pronounced seasonal trends. The nearby Russian station Novolazarevskaya also showed a cooling trend of 0.032 °C per year. … The temperature trend in average temperature of 19 Antarctica stations is also examined to ascertain the extent of cooling or warming trend (Supplementary Table_S1). The majority of stations in East Antarctica close to the coast show cooling or no significant trend. … Turner et al. (2016) using stacked temperature record found a significant cooling trend for the Antarctic Peninsula for the period 1999–2014.”
“The study of Antarctic precipitation has attracted a lot of attention recently. The reliability of climate models in simulating Antarctic precipitation, however, is still debatable. This work assess the precipitation and surface air temperature (SAT) of Antarctica (90°S to 60°S) using 49 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5) global climate models”
“Compelling evidence indicates that the large increase in the SH sea ice, recorded over recent years, arises from the impact of climate modes and their long-term trends. The examination of variability ranging from seasonal to interdecadal scales, and of trends within the climate patterns and total Antarctic sea ice concentration (SIC) for the 32-yr period (1982–2013), is the key focus of this paper. The results herein indicate that a progressive cooling has affected the year-to-year climate of the sub-Antarctic since the 1990s.”
“As shown by firn core analysis, the near-surface temperature in the northern-most portion of the Antarctic Peninsula shows a decreasing trend (−0.33°C year−1) between 2008 and 2014 [-1.98°C].”
“The near‐surface Antarctic atmosphere experienced significant changes during the last decades (Steig et al., 2009; Turner et al., 2006). In particular, the near‐surface air over the Western part of Antarctica exhibits one of the major warming over the globe (Bromwich et al., 2013a), with heating rates larger than 0.5 K per decade at some places. Despite a significant warming in the end of the 20th century, the Antarctic Peninsula has been slightly cooling since 1998, reflecting the high natural variability of the climate in this region (Turner et al., 2016). East Antarctica has experienced a slight cooling trend (Nicolas & Bromwich, 2014; Smith & Polvani, 2017) particularly marked during autumn.”
“The authors analyzed the observed winter surface air temperature in eastern mainland China during the recent global warming hiatus period through 1998-2013. The results suggest a substantial cooling trend of about -1.0°/decade in Eastern China, Northeast China and Southeast China.”
Posted in Antarctic, Arctic, Cooling/Temperature, Hockey Team, Medieval Warm Period, Paleo-climatology |
19 responses to “81 Graphs From 62 New (2018) Papers Invalidate Claims Of Unprecedented Global-Scale Modern Warming”
Wow! Now this is what I call growing skepticism.
PS: Readers, I will post the story that had been up briefly tomorrow. This post is certainly worthy of greater attention.
So, contrary to what the alarmists keep shouting, the science is NOT “settled”.
There is no such thing as “settled science”. Science is all about not being settled, being open to challenge and revision. He who appeals to “settled science” betrays that he does not understand how science works. Calling challengers “deniers” is a sure sign that the proponent is not aware of the fundamental methodological requirements of science.
Thank you for this valuable source of data and all the work you have put into it.
One question-Have you searched out these graphs because they refute the hockey stick and ignored others that agree with the hockey stick or is this a compendium of all the results of your search?
Thank you once again.
These are the graphs that don’t show warming or any trend that resembles a hockey stick-like uptick in recent decades. Graphs that do show recent warming are not included in a compilation designed to illustrate that there is a large volume of graphs/papers in the scientific literature that do not support the claim that there is something unusual going on today…and therefore humans must have caused it.
Also, the fact that these papers/graphs (and the 450 other papers/graphs from previous years highlighted here at NTZ) do not show that warming is global in scale contradicts the claim that what is occurring today is globally-synchronous. Instead, we have some regions warming, some cooling, and nothing out of the ordinary occurring in either direction.
If I were to estimate the percentage of graphs that show unusual/hockey-stick-like warming for modern times vs. the number that show modern era non-warming or cooling or recent temperatures within range of natural variability in the research results conducted for these compilations, I’d suggest it’s somewhere in neighborhood of 25% unusual/hockey-stick-like vs. 75% non-hockey-stick/natural variability/cooling/nothing unusual. Since the media only highlight the 25%, we’re highlighting the rest here. I assume this is what your question really was.
Thank you for this complete and concise reply. It is indeed the answer to my question and your estimate of percent of results is welcomed.
Someone will accuse you of cherry-picking 😉
Ah, but all of that data has not been put through the Mannian – NOAA – Giss adjustment regime that would undoubtedly find the missing Hockey Stick.
Geeze – I’m getting cold just looking at those graphs. Thank goodness for any warming that we’ve had.
“There is no such thing as “settled science”.”
There is however “settled science” mathematical proof that most of the algebra used in climate “science” is indisputably wrong.
The greenhouse effect is described as the combination of the “average” solar insolation plus the atmospheric back radiation combining to increase the heating effect on the Earth’s surfaces above what the solar radiation is capable of inducing on its own.
This University lecture claims that 239.7 W/m2 solar radiation with no atmosphere heats the Earth to 255 K – minus 18°C. They then add an atmosphere radiating 239.7 W/m2 and combine the 2 to arrive at 479.4 W/m2 heating the Earth to ~303 Kelvin – ~30°C.
There are 2 things wrong with this nonsense. Firstly it says the atmosphere heats the ground as much as the Sun can – LOL.
Secondly it says you can add up any flux values you like completely ignoring spectral considerations and use the Stefan-Boltzmann equation to calculate the resulting temperature.
This is extensively used in ALL computer models BUT IT IS MATHEMATICALLY WRONG !
This graph shows it is completely false –
This document explains why this graph is valid –
As the Stefan-Boltzmann equation is entirely based on blackbody radiation and Planck’s equation is the only one that completely describes such radiation you cannot add up flux and calculate the temperature using the SB equation if the results do not agree with Planck’s equation – the rules of calculus explicitly forbid such use because the curves do not match.
Only definitional truth can ensure cognitive certainty. Science as an effort to learn more about the world in which we live is incapable of delivering cognitive certainty. Tautologies are true under all possible circumstances. But they don’t tell us anything about the world that we didn’t already know. Acquiring new knowledge about reality comes at the cost of fallibility.
Einstein: “As far as mathematical propositions refer to reality they are not certain, and as far as they are certain, they do not refer to reality. Mathematical theories about reality are always uncertain — if they are certain, they are not about reality.”
Also, even the state of art in mathematics is fallible.
The data supports my conclusions. An examination of the paleoclimate record and the work done with models, leads one to the conclusion that the climate change the we have been experiencing is caused by the sun and the oceans over which mankind has no control. There is no real evidence that CO2 has any effect on climate and plenty of scientific rational to support the idea that the climate sensitivity of CO2 is zero. It is all a matter of science.
The AGW conjecture depends on the existence of a radiant greenhouse effect caused by trace gases in the Earth’s atmosphere with LWIR absorption bands. Such a radiant greenhouse effect has not been observed in a real greenhouse, in the Earth’s climate system, or anywhere else in the solar system. The radiant greenhouse is science fiction so hence the AGW conjecture is science fiction as well.
I want to repeat what Will said.. and highlight it
“Such a radiant greenhouse effect HAS NOT BEEN OBSERVED in a real greenhouse, in the Earth’s climate system, or anywhere else in the solar system. The radiant greenhouse is science fiction so hence the AGW conjecture is science fiction as well.”
No wonder certain people have been totally unable to produce any empirical proof that enhanced atmospheric CO2 does anything apart from enhancing plant growth !
[…] Read the rest … […]
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“not a shred of evidence”
I thought I posted this video of Dr. Mullis’ take on Climatology, but don’t see it elsewhere, so I’ll toss it in here.
[…] the No Tricks Zone: (by Kenneth Richard on 10, May […]
A couple of key concepts:
1 – Insufficiency. There is not sufficient reliable temperature data; there is not sufficient knowledge AND understanding of the science behind the thermal balance of, say, the biosphere; relying on statistical concepts is not sufficient to provide accurate results.
2- Water vapor. It appears to be understood that it causes about over 65% of the green house effect; its concentration at any one time anywhere on earth can vary over a wide range (say from less than 1% to over 3%) during any 24 hour period; it has both a warming (any time by absorbing and reflecting infrared radiation from the earth) and a cooling effect (during day light by reflecting incoming solar radiation) as clouds; however, its net effect does not appear to be fully known or understood.
3- CO2. It appears that its concentration varies only slightly with elevation, and it reflects/absorbs some of the thermal radiation, either from the earth or from the sun….
Natural variability is an interesting concept, but nobody actually knows the optimum global temperature for mankind. If it is that temperature minimizing temperature-related deaths of human beings, then I suspect it is a few degrees warmer than currently observed. Now that’s an interesting metric for climate alarmists to consider. Instead, they observe that in a closed environment plants fare better with increased CO2 , but a by-product of this experiment is heat. So they then spend their careers trying to prove that the fossil fuel industry is the cause of concentrations in the biosphere of this molecule in excess of 400 ppm, and that this level produces dangerously high temperatures. Meanwhile data from submarines and spacecraft have concentrations of around 4,000 ppm and show no deleterious effects on humans. So in direct contradiction of the scientific method they even alter data to support their preconceived conclusion that the anthropogenically created molecule is causing runaway global warming. But in fact, CO2 levels as low as 150 ppm would cause mass extinctions, and plants suffer at levels below 500 ppm.
Since we are still coming out of the little ice age, a little more warming is appropriate. An inappropriate response occurs with subsidized wind and solar farms. Try evolving a little bit. From the geologic record I see that we’ve done it in the past, and it looks like future negative variability is going to be very trying. “Climate Change” is much ado about nothing.