…in 122 (2017) scientific papers
Image Source: Loisel et al., 201
In the last 12 months, 150 graphs from 122 peer-reviewed scientific papers have been published that undermine the popularized conception of a slowly cooling Earth temperature history followed by a dramatic hockey-stick-shaped uptick, or an especially unusual global-scale warming during modern times.
Yes, some regions of the Earth have been warming in recent decades or at some point in the last 100 years.
Some regions have been cooling for decades at a time.
And many regions have shown no significant net changes or trends in either direction relative to the last few hundred to thousands of years.
Succinctly, then, scientists publishing in peer-reviewed journals have increasingly affirmed that there is nothing historically unprecedented or remarkable about today’s climate when viewed in the context of long-term natural variability.
The following (partial) list has been organized by geographical region.
1. North Atlantic
Ogurtsov et al., 2017, Kim et al., 2017, Repschläger et al., 2017, Piecuch et al., 2017, Yashayaev and Loder, 2017, Rosenthal et al., 2017, Abrantes et al., 2017
2. North Pacific
3. Western Pacific
Bird et al., 2017, Dodrill et al., 2017, Nan et al., 2017, Kawahata et al., 2017, Deng et al., 2017, Kong et al., 2017, Xu et al., 2017, Sun et al., 2017
4. Tropical Atlantic
5. Tropical Pacific
6. Southwest Greenland, East Greenland
7. Nordic Seas
8. Indian Ocean
9. South Pacific/Southern Ocean
“Occupying about 14% of the world’s surface, the Southern Ocean plays a fundamental role in ocean and atmosphere circulation, carbon cycling and Antarctic ice-sheet dynamics. … a cooling trend since 1979.”
Latif et al., 2017 “The Southern Ocean featured some remarkable changes during the recent decades. For example, large parts of the Southern Ocean, despite rapidly rising atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations, depicted a surface cooling since the 1970s…”
Kusahara et al., 2017 “Concomitant with this positive trend in Antarctic sea ice, sea surface temperatures (SSTs) over the Southern Ocean south of approximately 45°S have cooled over this period [since 1979].”
Wang et al., 2017, Zhang et al., 2017, Ge et al., 2017, Li et al., 2017, Li et al., 2017, Zheng et al., 2017, Yao et al., 2017, Li et al., 2017
Hu et al., 2017 “According to the pollen records in the HRYR [Headwater Region of the Yellow River], the climate in the Holocene thermal maximum was warmer and wetter than present (temperature was 2 -3 °C higher than present)“
11. Tibetan Plateau
Saini et al., 2017, Sun et al., 2017, Dong et al., 2017, Li et al., 2017, Chang et al., 2017, Li et al., 2017
12. Central Asia
13. United States
Elmslie, 2017 “Pollen-based inferences suggest HTM temperatures were elevated by approximately 2-3°C [above present], and lake levels were regionally lower than today, suggesting warmer and more arid conditions than today. This warming resulted in increased algal production and associated cyanobacteria blooms in lakes in northwestern Ontario. In northeastern Ontario, climate projections suggest the HTM was 2-3°C warmer.”
Oliva et al., 2017 (West Antarctic Peninsula) “However, a recent analysis (Turner et al., 2016) has shown that the regionally stacked temperature record for the last three decades has shifted from a warming trend of 0.32 °C/decade during 1979–1997 to a cooling trend of − 0.47 °C/decade during 1999–2014. … This recent cooling has already impacted the cryosphere in the northern AP [Antarctic Peninsula], including slow-down of glacier recession, a shift to surface mass gains of the peripheral glacier and layer of permafrost in northern AP islands.”
16. Australia/New Zealand
Mangerud and Svendsen, 2017, Fernández-Fernández et al., 2017, Werner et al., 2017, Moffa-Sánchez and Hall, 2017
Li et al., 2017, Lasher et al., 2017, Reeves Eyre and Zeng, 2017, Larsen et al., 2017, Kobashi et al., 2017
Lusas et al., 2017 (East Greenland) “The lack of glacio-lacustrine sediments throughout most of the record suggests that the ice cap was similar to or smaller than present throughout most of the Holocene. … Air temperatures in Milne Land, west of our study area, based on preliminary estimates from chironomids, may have been 3–6°C warmer than at present (Axford et al. 2013).”
Perșoiu et al., 2017, Abrantes et al., 2017 , Tejedor et al., 2017, Rydval et al., 2017, Balanzategui et al., 2017, Kaczka et al., 2017, Simon et al., 2017
Stivrins et al., 2017 (Latvia) “[A] thermokarst active phase … began 8500 cal. yr BP and lasted at least until 7400 cal. yr BP. Given that thermokarst arise when the mean summer air temperature gradually increased ca. 2°C beyond the modern day temperature”
Molnár and Végvári, 2017 (SE Central Europe) “Our study provides an estimate for the value of MAT of HTM of Pannon region with an interval of 0.4°C, relying on macroecological considerations. We calculate the temperature of the HTM [Holocene Thermal Maximum] 1.3–1.7°C warmer than the present temperature.”
Åkesson et al., 2017 (Norway) “Reconstructions for southern Norway based on pollen and chironomids suggest that summer temperatures were up to 2 °C higher than present in the period between 8000 and 4000 BP, when solar insolation was higher (Nesje and Dahl, 1991; Bjune et al., 2005; Velle et al., 2005a).”
Thienemann et al., 2017, Samartin et al., 2017, Ön et al., 2017, Köse et al., 2017, Zywiec et al., 2017, Büntgen et al., 2017, Thienemann, 2017
22. South America