Japanese skeptic blogger Kirye posted here at Twitter the latest news on Arctic sea ice volume, which earlier this spring took a sudden and unexpected jump upwards – adding some 2 trillion cubic meters.
What follows is the latest chart from the Danish Meteorological Institute (DMI):
As the chart shows, Arctic sea ice volume hasn’t really budged that much since it peaked back inApril.
Less than 4% below the mean
And when one looks at the chart closely, it is seen that the mean Arctic se ice volume for this time of year is just under 25,000 cubic kilometers. Currently we see that volume is the same as it was in 2014, at some 24,000 cubic kilometers.
The deviation from the mean is less than 1000 cubic kilometers, i.e. less than 4%. That means sea ice volume is well within the range of natural variability.
Predictions of an ice-free Arctic go back decades
Two days ago the Deplorable Science Blog here reminded us: “Sixty years ago, the New York Times predicted ships would be sailing over the North Pole ‘within the lifetime of our children.’”
The false prophets
In the same article Steve Goddard brings up a 2008 article by the AP’s Seth Borenstein, who quoted climate alarmist, Massachusetts Senator Ed Markey, who then called James Hansen a “climate prophet”.
Both Al Gore and former NASA GISS director James Hansen warned –“echoing work by other scientists” — that the Arctic would be ice-free in the summer by now!
So, add two more names to False Prophets Hall of Fame.
Ironically the real “prophet” turns out to be Oklahoma Senator, global warming skeptic Sen. James Inhofe, who in 2008 dismissed all the predictions as media doom, and said that Americans weren’t buying it.
Ten years later Senator Inhofe turns out to be right.
30 responses to “Gore And Hansen Join “False Prophets Hall of Fame” As Arctic Ice Volume Now Only 430 Below Mean!”
It is not good news that the ice is stsbilizing. It is worse news to think that the ice worldwide may be advancing as this would by a signal for the return of a colder climate.
It is not stabilizing. It is barely scratching the lower 2 stddev limit of the 2004-2013 mean, meaning it is still outside and below 90% of the mean volume in those 10 years. Of course it sounds much better to say it would be “only” 4% below mean now …
If skeptics need to do this, well … imagine what global temperatures 4% below or above mean would look like, barely above freezing or 10°C warmer than now. But hey, “only” 4% … that’s nothing, right?
Arctic sea ice volume for this date is above all the last 10 years except 2014 and 2009.
There has been zero trend in extent in those 10 years.
Arctic sea ice is behaving exactly as the AMO would predict, and the AMO is starting to turn downwards.
And seb really thinks you can use percentages on temperature??? mathematically clueless !!
You are aware that the planet is only a tiny molehill above the COLDEST anomaly in 10,000 years, aren’t you seb???
…. Which would, of cause, explain why the Arctic sea ice extent is still in the top 10% of the last 10,000 years
Or are you UNAWARE of that fact as well, (add it to the very long list) .
You’re humiliating the climate change fabricator by using verified figures. Hopefully that embarrasses the the silly activist. Not that seb the [snip]</strong] will change his tune, the indoctrinated can't do that.
back in the last ice age the Arctic was similar to today with seasonal open waters.
“Good news” for proving AGW is a scam. “Bad news” for those who can’t afford the exorbitantly overcharged energy from mandatory “ruinable” sources, and for the all of us if temperatures do drop significantly.
The reality is it’s not good or bad news as ocean ice Ebbs and flows like the tides. It’s like watching grass grow through the seasons. And even if the Artic decided to be ice-free one summer it would have ice in the winter. If anything we have learned that there is much more to ice formation than Arctic Temps. Polar temps have more to do with a sign of a cooling planet. We just went through the greatest 2 year cooling. Since the 1800s and the Artic temps tended to be high at times. This is because the Earth’s normal latent heat processor takes the excess heat from the tropics and moves it ever northward until it causes storms at the poles where heat shoots upward into the atmosphere and out into space. If someone were to plot a graph I am sure they would see that before and during a major Cooling event they would see Arctic Temps jump. This was true and the 1930s when it was just as warm as today and the Artic attempts, even by NASA own admission we’re just as warm as today. All we are seeing and being a part of is a natural warming cycle that will eventually come to an end. There are definitely some indicators that it’s already at and and we are headed for a another major cooling event, and if the solar cycle remains week I would say that we are.
I agree completely. Too much often gets read into single extreme anomalies.
It is as important to track and reveal the misrepresentations peddled in the press as it is to recognise the larger picture — hence, thanks to the author of the post, and thanks to Thomas Robbins.
good to see that other understand the role of the Arctic in cooling the planet.
For me, this ice growth wasn’t ‘unexpected’, it was entirely in line with the increased winter warmth at the Arctic.
The only time it would indicate a warming planet is when co-inciding with a warmer than normal northern hemisphere as a whole
“Gore And Hansen Join “False Prophets Hall of Fame” As Arctic Ice Volume Now Only 44 (sic) Below Mean!” There is an error in the subheading just above the comment section. Feel free to cancel this comment.
Actually Gore joined the false prophets on Arctic Sea Ice in 2013.
Hanson will join him when the sea ice hits it minimum later this summer.
In this newspaper article by Seth Bornstein dated June 24th 2008
it says: Hanson, echoing work by other scientists, said that in five to ten years, the Arctic will be free of ice in the summer.
Hmm, will skeptics who made false predictions also join this strange hall of false prophets? I know a few here on this blog who will have this problem soon and a few on other websites who were very wrong about the 2008 to 2018 development of temperature 😉
You mean another FAILED IPCC projection?
It was supposed to warm at LEAST .30C per Decade………………
Actually, the IPCC prediction for “Business as Usual” human GHG emissions (in 1990) was a nominal 5-y smoothed value of increase in the GMST anomaly of 0.3 deg. C per decade (with an upper and lower range of 0.2 deg. C per decade and 0.5 deg. C per decade, respectively).
Yes in the 1990 report, but the later versions eliminated the “average” and used just the minimum .30C per Decade warming rate.
Well sunsettommy, I guess you are capable of reading numbers, are you? What is the difference in temperature between the first month of 2008 and the first month of 2018 (also commonly known as a decade) in the graph you linked to?
I’ll save you the humiliating work, it’s 0.476 °C. Now is that number higher than 0.30 °C? Yes or no?
Between January 2016 and April 2018, temperatures have fallen by -0.35°C.
What caused that cooling, SebastianH? What’s the mechanism?
In the last 2 decades, the temperature increase has been slightly more than 0.1°C overall…
That’s about 0.06°C per decade, which is 1/5th of the expectations from climate models.
A HUMILIATING and very childish cherry-pick by seb.
What was the difference between the first month of 1998 and 2008, commonly known as a decade, seb !!
I’ll save you utter humiliation, seb
in UAH its minus 0.7ºC
Or how about the change from the 4th month of 1998 to the 4th month of 2018, called 2 decades
Change is minus 0.53ºC = -0.26ºC/decade
How HUMILIATING to be seb !!!
So? Perhaps you didn’t read my original question?
And then …
Great choices of timespans, Kenneth.
I didn’t cherry pick that at all. Perhaps you don’t know about this, but there were a few skeptics bets on the 10 year development of global temperature starting from 2008. There are other bets on different timespans (e.g. from 2008 until 2020 or the 2010-2020 decade).
So again the question: will those be called false prophets by you guys too? Why not?
Poor little seb
You really are feeling embarrassed at your fantasy little cherry-picking aren’t you…
.. faceplant and all..
.. to the point of denial…
so sad… so seb.
Cherry picking basically the very bottom of a La Nina dip.
.. and then pretending otherwise.
The only person you are fooling is yourself, seb.
But that has always been your way..
.. and we so enjoy watching you make a fool of yourself. 🙂
Gore and Hansen are minor profits of doom regarding the Arctic. The leading doomsayer for the Arctic is Peter Wadhams. His predictions of an Ice Free Arctic are endless:
Wadhams deserves a prominent place at the table when it comes to failed climate predictions. His persistence with “next year being ice free” deserves high condemnation.
O/T except it is about false statements.
1980s Dietary Guidelines Made America Fat
How many “Wadhams” of Arctic sea ice are there left?
Over 12 Wadhams
NCEP is projecting a minimum of 6 Wadhams, which will put it near the top of the range of the last 12 or so years.
[…] Ref.: https://notrickszone.com/2018/05/19/gore-and-hansen-join-false-prophets-hall-of-fame-as-arctic-ice-vo… […]
Looking at the long range weather models this summer we seem to be heading for global cooling with low pressure dominating the far north of the northern hemisphere and high pressure dominating the far south of the southern hemisphere, the UK and northern Europe might be a bit warmer and drier this summer if we maintain high pressure but we are not the world. If this turn out to be correct I wonder where the satellite temperatures will go.
You are funny with your “how many Wadhams” are there out there? 6 or 12 or whatev’s
It would be fun to great a new Index, the Wadham scale, from 0 to 9 where 9 means you are delusional, and 0 you are 100% credible.
How strange? The usual culprit would usually offer the distraction of a tiny bit of Antarctica breaking free sometime soon. Maybe he’s losing his touch or lost the script.