Alarmist Climate Myths Exposed: New Scientific Studies Demolish Claim Warming Leads To More Cyclones!

Researchers have published 4 new papers this year showing that both tropical cyclone activity and intensity have declined over the past decades. The findings mean atmospheric scientists and policymakers will need to reassess positions on climate change and tropical storms.

Photo: NASA (public domain)

Last year’s 2017 hurricane season was an active one and caused a great deal of damage along the US southeast coastline. Global warming alarmists moved quickly to blame it on man-made CO2, which they say causes the planet to warm up and thus makes tropical cyclones more frequent and ferocious.

Yet an objective analysis of the recorded data show this is not the case at all, and that the opposite is occurring.

Hurricane “landfall drought”

For example, new scientific results of an analysis authored by Ryan Truchelut and Erica Staeling in the journal Geophysical Research Letters tell us that the 11 years before 2017 were in reality “an extended period” of quiet continental United States tropical cyclone landfall activity that today is known as the “landfall drought”. During this period (from 2006 through 2016) no major (category 3 or higher) hurricanes made landfall – an unprecedented event since systematic observations began.

Activity over 40% below average

Moreover, the two authors used accumulated cyclone energy (ACE) data to investigate variability and trends in landfall activity. Their findings: The hurricane landfall drought years between 2006 and 2016 recorded an average value of total annual ACE [accumulated cyclone energy] over the U.S. that was less than 60% of the 1900–2017 average.

The data also revealed a “statistically significant downward” trend since 1950, with the percentage of total Atlantic ACE expended over the continental U.S. at a series minimum during the recent drought period.

US landfalling hurricanes downward trend since 1900

Another just released scientific study by Klotzbach et al., 2018 tells us that since 1900 neither continental United States landfalling hurricane frequency nor intensity show significant trends (including the devastating 2017 season).


Charts above show that continental US hurricane activity has been decreasing since 1900 (despite atmospheric CO2 and global temperature rising). Source: Klotzbach et al, 2018.

Alarmists contradicted: Warming leads to LESS storms!

A third scientific publication authored by Zhang et al., 2018, also appearing in the journal Geophysical Research letters found that the mean frequency of Western North Pacific (WNP) tropical cyclones was about 18% lower over the 1997–2014 period compared to the previous 1980–1996 period.

The reason, the authors found, was in part connected to “enhanced sea surface temperature (SST) warming in the North Atlantic”!

“No significant correlation” between cyclones and temperature

Finally a fourth scientific publication by Zhao et al., 2018 looked at the relationship between increasing tropical cyclone activity and increasing sea surface temperatures. Three previous studies by Liu and Chan 2013, Lin and Chan 2015, and Zhao and Wang 2016 showed that there had been a significant decrease of tropical cyclone frequency over the Western North Pacific basin since 1998.

Western North Pacific cyclone frequency declining!

According to Zhao, citing Chan 2006 and Yeh et al. 2010, observational analyses pointed out that there is no significant correlation between tropical cyclone frequency and sea surface temperatures over the Western North Pacific basin.


Moreover, the chart above makes it clear that tropical cyclone frequency in the Western North Pacific basin has in fact been declining.

17 responses to “Alarmist Climate Myths Exposed: New Scientific Studies Demolish Claim Warming Leads To More Cyclones!”

  1. David Guy-Johnson

    You can’t argue with that data

    1. spike55

      NO, but if you are an “alarmist” cult-member, you can totally ignore all the real data, make up your own data, and provide zero evidence of where the fake data came from.

      1. SebastianH

        Nobody is ignoring the “real data”. That is only your impression because you ignore everything that is inconvenient to your weird theories. For example, why is there no mention of the increased time storms/hurricanes stay in one place, e.g. them moving slower: https://news.nationalgeographic.com/2018/06/hurricanes-cyclones-move-slower-drop-more-rain-climate-change-science/

        1. spike55

          Your link “assumes” anthropogenic warming.

          “Anthropogenic warming, both past and projected, is expected to…. “

          There is ZERO-EVIDENCE of any anthropogenic warming.

          How did it ever get through peer-review while making scientifically unsupportable statements like that !!!..

          must have been just pal-review.

          “anthropogenic warming is expected to increase the rain rates…..”

          Just like natural warming would.

          And yes, We are all well aware that as the Earth warms naturally, there is less differential between the latitudes to drive storms.

  2. Miti climatici allarmistici svelati: nuovi studi scientifici demoliscono le rivendicazioni che il riscaldamento conduce a più cicloni! : Attività Solare ( Solar Activity )

    […] fonte: No Tricks Zone […]

  3. SebastianH

    Unrelated: I am missing the monthly Kowatsch “it is getting cooler in Germany” posts. Where are they? Or did Kowatsch give up now that it has been much much warmer than average in Germany in the past 3 months?

    1. toorightmate

      Seb old mate,
      Have I got a surprise for you.

      It’s summer in Germany – definitely warmer than December.

      1. SebastianH

        Thank you for demonstrating just how smart “skeptics” really are.

        Those graphs were timelines of the respective month over the past 30 years. The articles highlighting these graphs suddenly stopped with April, when April 2018 was suddenly much much warmer than previous Aprils.

        Have I surprised you back?

        1. spike55

          Weather events never surprise us, seb

          Globally April 2018 was 9th or 10th in 40 years

          Down here, April 2018 was 29th warmest out of 40 years.

          Do you actually have ANY POINT in your commenting ??

          .. or it just a lonely plaintive plea for attention???

          Do you have even the slightest evidence that this warm April in Germany was caused by atmospheric CO2, or any other human cause?

          The only human influence I can think of that is even slightly possible is because all the wind turbines are taking the energy out of the air, slowing the breezes down, hence causing warming.

          1. SebastianH

            I know I wrote I wouldn’t reply, but I can’t let these lies stand uncorrected. Why are you lying spike55?

            Weather events never surprise us, seb

            Ehm, the surprise for toorightmate was that he didn’t get what my initial comment was about and yet felt the need to “teach” me.

            Globally April 2018 was 9th or 10th in 40 years

            It was the 3rd warmest. https://climate.nasa.gov/news/2735/april-2018-was-third-warmest-april-on-record/

            Down here, April 2018 was 29th warmest out of 40 years.

            Assuming you mean Australia, Apri 2018 was the hottest on record there: http://www.lecourrieraustralien.com/australia-april-2018-named-hottest-on-record/?lang=en
            You’ve experienced the 4th warmest autumn on record as well: http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/current/season/aus/summary.shtml

            Why the blatant lie?

            Do you actually have ANY POINT in your commenting ??

            Showing how you guys bend reality and hope nobody notices while at the same time you accuse climate scientists of faking the data. That’s really rich.

            April 2018 was also the warmest April on record in Germany. And yes, I know that this is weather, but apparently, skeptics don’t as Pierre claimed month after month that the climate would be cooling now because those months were a little bit cooler than average. So naturally there should be postings now that declare climate in Germany to be warming because of 3 consecutive record months. The omission is pretty telling about the “skeptic’s” narrow perception or desire to bend reality to what they feel it is.

            I have no doubt that Pierre will post something from this Kowatsch guy as soon as we get a below average month again 🙂

          2. spike55

            Not me who is LYING, seb

            Look at the UAH data yourself, if you have the intelligence to find and extract the data.

            If you want to use CORRUPTED surface data, and listen to what left-wing presstitutes say, then MORE FOOL YOU,

            .. and I’ve never seen a bigger FOOL.

            UAH had April 2018 in =10th place globally
            June 2018 is in =8th place
            Year to June is in 7th place

            RSS3.3 has April 2018 in equal 10th place globally

            (RSSv$ not released yet, waiting for instructions and payment, I’d guess)

            UAH Australia had April in 29th place
            and June in 34th place.

            Seems the REAL LIARS are very much whichever FAKE NEWS reporter you want to “believe”..

            You seem to be attracted to “believing” in LIES and FANTASIES, don’t you seb.

            You really should be more sceptical, instead of just blind, mindless, anti-fact “belief”

            Data, seb, not newspaper articles or 1 second AWS data. (Do you even know about the BOM’s farcical way of taking maximums.. nah, you are almost certainly UNAWARE of that, as well)

            You have NOT ONCE shown any bending of REALITY, except in your own little brain-hosed egotistically feeble mind.

            You are the one that cannot face the REALITY that there is ZERO EMPIRICAL EVIDENCE of human CO2 warming anything, anywhere, anytime.

            Talk about a “trip” away from reality. !! WOW !!!

            Let’s see if you have got over your cowardice yet…

            Q1. In what way has the climate changed in the last 40 years, and how are those changes scientifically attributable to human activity ?

            Q2. Do you have ANY EVIDENCE that humans have changed the global climate in ANYWAY WHATSOEVER?

          3. spike55

            WHOOPS got the wrong month

            (see, I admit when I goof. You should try it sometime, seb, let go that baseless arrogance of your, just for once)

            In Australia, UAH has
            April as 4th warmest
            May as 29th Warmest
            June as 34th warmest
            Autumn(MAM) was 13th Warmest

            Globally UAH had
            April in 7th place
            May in 10th place
            June in =8th place

            Globally RSSv3.3 has
            April in 11th place
            May in 1th place
            June in =10th place

            Still puts a LIE to that ridiculous article seb linked to.

          4. spike55

            Did you even bother to read that link you posted , seb?

            Its totally FARCICAL.

            Steffen is a world class climate nutter. !!

            Australia “Year to date” is in 13th place.
            December 2017 was also in 13th place

            The “hottest evah” claim, even in the articles was one day in April, and it was also a LIE.
            The heading of the article is also a LIE.

            There was NOTHING overly hot about this last summer. There were NOTHING out of the ordinary for an Australian summer, ANYWHERE.

            Its all just propaganda LIES and HYPE, and you unthinkingly just “believe” it, every time.

            There is also NOTHING Australia could do that would make one iota of difference to world climate.

          5. SebastianH

            Not me who is LYING, seb
            Yes you are. Either that or you are completely oblivious to reality.

            If you want to use CORRUPTED surface data

            And then you go on and use UAH (v6 presumably) and try paint RSS in a bad light … everything that doesn’t fit with your worldview is automatically fake, right? You need to snap out of this mode. Seriously. This clown show doesn’t help anyone.

            UAH had April 2018 in =10th place globally

            Learn how to count:
            http://woodfortrees.org/data/uah6/from:1979.25/every:12

            RSS3.3 has April 2018 in equal 10th place globally

            Learn how to count:
            http://woodfortrees.org/data/rss/from:1979.25/every:12

            Go on with your UAH worship and posting your wildly wrong rankings in the hopes someone of your unskeptical “skeptic” buddies falls for them.

          6. spike55

            Poor seb,

            I said RSSv3.3

            Why are you trying the DECEIT and the LYING again by using the “adjusted™” RSS4.4 ???

            And I really have to wonder why you think “.25” is April.. mathematical ineptitude, I guess.

            Also odd that the numbers you have created don’t match RSSv4.0 for either March or April.

            You really do need to GET YOUR ACT TOGETHER, little seb.

            I corrected my “wrong month” error on UAH April

            UAH and RSS v3.3 match very well, pity that the RSS guys let themselves be bent by the AGW agenda and fabricated RSSv$.

            Massive “adjustments™” in an attempt to help out their AGW mates, rather than sticking to science.

            https://s19.postimg.cc/tcd8fmb37/RSS__v4-v3.3.png

            Go on, seb-clown, and keep using the meaningless surface data, and hope someone doesn’t LAUGH at you too much.

            —————————-

            Couple of minor corrections, one due to a mis-read, one due to a typo.

            If you want to dispute them, maybe you should get the firsthand data and process it properly

            In Australia, UAH has
            April as 5th warmest
            May as 29th Warmest
            June as 34th warmest
            Autumn(MAM) was 13th Warmest

            Globally UAH had
            April in 7th place
            May in 10th place
            June in =8th place

            Globally RSSv3.3 has
            April in 11th place
            May in 11th place
            June in =10th place

            Globally RSSv4 has
            April in 6th place
            May in 7th place
            June not released yet.

  4. Derg

    Hasn’t NOAA already weighed in on this? There has been no increase in hurricane numbers or strength related to Global Warming….aka Climate change. They have a 100 years of hurricane data.

    1. spike55

      Yep,

      Its a pretty hard task to find ANYTHING that is really “different” with the “climate”

      Apart from a slight warming from the strong series of solar maxima last century,

      Basically NOTHING.. NADA.. ZIP

      Even our resident troll can’t tell us what has actually “changed” with the climate that isn’t totally within the range of natural variation and provable down to human anything.

      And he has been asked, MANY times. !

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