Very recent scientific publications show that the North Atlantic heat content and surface temperatures have been cooling significantly, and so may lead to a rebound in Arctic sea ice in the region. Already Arctic sea ice has stabilized over the past 10 years and Greenland has shown a surprising ice mass gain.
Kenneth wrote about this here not long ago.
Climate scientists agree that variations in the North Atlantic temperatures and ocean currents have a great impact on sea ice in the North Atlantic Arctic region and Europe’s climate.
Dramatic fall in North Atlantic heat content
For example recent findings published in Nature by a team led by David J. R. Thornalley of Department of Geography, University College London, show that the heat content of the North Atlantic from zero to 700 meters depth has cooled the most dramatically since the 1950s:
North Atlantic ocean heat content (OHC) dives. Source: Thormalloy et al, Nature.
In the 1970s most scientists believed an ice age was approaching after the surface temperature of the North Atlantic had cooled sharply from its 1950s peak.
Another very recent publication appearing in the Geophysical Research Letters by a team of researchers led by D.A. Smeed of National Oceanography Centre, Southampton, UK shows that surface and subsurface temperatures of the North Atlantic have fallen to their lowest levels in in more than 30 years:
The researchers suspect that the decreased lower temperatures are related to the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC), which is a powerful system of currents in the Atlantic involving the northward flow of warm water in the upper layers of the Atlantic and a southward flow of colder, deep waters which are part of the thermohaline circulation.
Changes in the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) have significant impacts on North Atlantic climate. Source:
The scientists theorize that melting Arctic sea ice may be responsible for the recent changes, but this remains highly speculative as the data to support this is extremely sparse. Meanwhile other scientists believe it has all more to do with multidecadal scale ocean cycles that have occurred throughout history.
Warming changes over to cooling
Another team of scientists led by Christopher G. Piecuch published a study in the journal Geophysical Research Letters here which shows that the subpolar North Atlantic (SPNA) upper ocean and sea‐surface temperature trends reversed from warming during 1994–2004 to cooling over 2005–2015.
The authors write that the region “is subject to strong decadal variability”, meaning natural cycles are at play. The authors present the following chart, which shows that the North Atlantic heat content has fallen sharply since 2010.
So is it any surprise that Arctic sea ice has stabilized in the wake of the North Atlantic cooling and that Greenland is putting on gigatons of added ice?
Veteran meteorologist Joe Bastardi of WeatherBell Analytics has said repeatedly that when ocean heat content in the regions adjacent to the Arctic falls, it’s only natural for sea ice to recover, and vice versa when ocean heat content rises. Arctic ice extent fluctuates along with the natural Atlantic and Pacific ocean cycles. It has little to do with trace gas CO2.
45 responses to “North Atlantic Ocean Rapidly Cooling…Cool Down And Growing Arctic Sea Ice May Follow”
Darn it, the effects of the Grand Solar Maximum of last century are wearing off already. 🙁
AMO looks like its turning its natural cycle.
The Arctic could really have used a much longer respite from being “chock full of sea ice” like it was during the LIA and late 1970s. The recovery from those freezing times looks like it has ended.
I wonder how the Arctic sea ice bedwetters will react as the extent and volume continue to increase over the next several years. Will be great fun to watch 😉
For the record,
MASIE has the Arctic sea ice extent for day 184 GREATER than every year back to 2006 except 2008, and that is a very close call, possible to be surpassed on day 185 or 186
DMI Arctic ice volume is ABOVE +1SD of the 2003-2017 mean.
It is following 2014 closely and will shortly cross above 2003, to be essentially in 2nd/3rd highest (level with 2014)
This Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO), which you describe above, is the biggest influence on Ireland’s weather, as documented by Met Eireann the Irish Meteorological Service. See summary (minus graphs) on link below:
The full paper from 2015 is available to read at:
The striking image from the above is Figure 4 showing the influence of the AMO on Irish summer weather, which is dramatic. Currently we a enjoying (provided one is not in farming) near continuous sunshine with no rain since mid-May. As many older people recall and as is being increasingly reported in the media, we haven’t seen the likes of this since the mid-seventies. Note: As Figure 4 shows so graphically. Neither is there currently (4th July) any immediate sign of this settled period actually being broken. For those of us who see the significance of natural observations, rather than computer speculations, that we should be again enjoying in 2018 such fine weather comes as no surprise. Indeed, I had often said that given the change in Atlantic sea temperatures, i.e. the AMO starting to move to cold again, there was an increasing likelihood that we would see such a summer and hopefully summers again.
You may also recall that in 1984 my fellow countryman Bob Geldof set up Band Aid to address the dreadful consequences of drought and famine in the Sub-Saharan Region (Sahel). Since then he hasn’t been so involved with those issues, which is not surprising, as the literature is full of papers, etc. about the greening of the Sahel, i.e. the drought has been broken. While for us in Ireland a cold AMO provides drier summers, this reduced rainfall is also known to impact on the Sahel, where issues are far more critical, literally life and death. It was therefore no coincidence that Band Aid occurred at the end of the last cold AMO period, ran its course as the AMO went into its warm phase and the Sahel greened and hopefully that bit of history won’t repeat itself, as we once again enter a cold AMO.
[…] Fonte: No Tricks Zone […]
Patrick, it breaks my heart that people should die of drought & its accompanying famine. In a world ruled by propaganda the vast quantities of water which exist outside the hydrological cycle remain almost unknown.
Scientific American March 2014: Study documents vast quantities of water beneath the earth’s surface. Study confirms “that there is a very, very large amount of water that’s trapped in a really distinct layer in the deep Earth… approaching the sort of mass of water that’s present in all the world’s oceans.”
BBC News December 2014: Study presented at the fall meeting of the American Geophysical Union– researchers estimate there is more water locked deep in the earth’s crust than in all its rivers, swamps and lakes together.
Science March 2002 Japanese researchers report the earth’s lower mantle may store about five times more water than its surface oceans.
The myth of water scarcity is part of the same “sustainability” argument as human-caused global warming. The idea is that civilization as currently existing is unsustainable, hence we must transform to global governance w vast changes to our way of life.
The science: http://www.hydrol-earth-syst-sci.net/5/569/2001/hess-5-569-2001.pdf
There is a difference between water existing deep down in the mantle with lots of solids disolved in it because of high pressure and easily potable water where humans actually live. If the need for water exceeds the availability of water in an area, you get water scarcity. Sustainability is about managing to keep the balance and not completely drain the water reservoirs you are using.
Sometimes I wonder why you guys seem to be able to come up with all kinds of excuses to use up resources like there is no tomorrow … declaring that we have more than enough of these resources. On the other hand you guys throw in that Lithium or some other element is too rare to support whatever “the other side” does. Weird.
“If the need for water exceeds the availability of water in an area, you get water scarcity.”
Yet somehow Israel, Oman, etc have plenty of water.
Sustainability is about good engineering: storage, extraction and distribution.
And yes, we know your mind lives “on the other side” of reality, seb.. no need to keep telling us.
seb. Primary water is pure, because free oxygen must be present for the minerals to be dissolved into the water. I refer you again to the science: http://www.hydrol-earth-syst-sci.net/5/569/2001/hess-5-569-2001.pdf
Non-saline hot water released from (underwater) Gakkel Ridge in Arctic http://www.climatechangedispatch.com/heat-from-deep-ocean-fault-punches-hole-in-arctic-ice-sheet.html
A little more on Primary Water. There are 60 such wells in Tanzania, one in California, a few in Africa & the mid-east.
The technology was lost to the West, perhaps partly because it contradicted scientific dogma on the history of earth’s geology. For our purposes it was rediscovered by a German contemporary of our grandfathers. He told 3 boys about it when he took them camping in one of those castles, and one of those boys– become a digger of wells– speaks to us here.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=USLe8gE9Rvw Interview of Dr. Stephan Riess, who rediscovered this ancient process. He began drilling wells in the 30s. He died in the 80s, but he passed his knowledge on to others, and there is a book.
You mean magmatic water?
You should be skeptical when something has an origin story attached to it like you just have written. This water exists, but it is not easily potable. All the water in Riess’ wells was analyzed and turned out to be regular ground water. Also his claimed output was never reached. It’s basically the same thing as others are doing … digging deep holes to get to ground water that undoubtedly also exists in dry regions.
Seb, TPTB don’t wish their investment in buying up water rights to be diluted.
You say, ” This water exists, but it is not easily potable. All the water in Riess’ wells was analyzed and turned out to be regular ground water. Also his claimed output was never reached.”
Where’s your reference?
“In France, Professor C. Louis Kervran wrote an essay in 1977 on the origin of water in crystalline rock. He knew that most of the wells in his native Brittany were found by dowsers and dug into solid granite. In his career he knew of so many cases where tunneling into rock created floods that wiped out the construction sites that he didn’t bother to collect data on them. During a drought in 1976 the French Geological and Mining Bureau loaned drilling equipment to find water in the region. Successful wells were drilled into crystalline and metamorphic terrain.”
“In the 1950’s, flooding impeded construction of the Tecolote Tunnel through the Santa Ynez Mountains. By its composition and the depth at which it was encountered, the thirteen million gallons a day was not rainwater. Some of the water was hot, as much as 117 degrees Fahrenheit, and mineralized, some was cool and exceedingly pure. The flows were stopped so construction of the six-mile long tunnel to connect Santa Barbara to the Cachuma Reservoir could continue.”
A spring in Oregon flows at 690 million gallons a day, a spring in Missouri flows at 800 million gallons a day, and a series of springs along the Snake River in Idaho flow at 3.5 billion gallons a day.”
ftp://ftp.consrv.ca.gov/pub/dmg/pubs/cg/1963/16_08.pdf (search for “primary water”, page 7)
https://pubs.usgs.gov/wsp/1800/report.pdf (section about primary water, page 18 following)
May I ask you for a reference to this? Is there evidence that it is “juvenile water” and not ordinary ground water?
Here’s on the Snake River https://www.jstor.org/stable/30068174?seq=1#page_scan_tab_contents.
Missouri is in a book, “Springs of Missouri”
Oregon is in a book, “Ozarks: Land and Life” p 10 by Milton Rafferty.
Since these aren’t avail to you I’ll give a few more examples:
–The source of Damascus’ Barada River is springs:
“After airstrikes damaged water pumping facilities in Ain al Fijah, a rural village to the north of Damascus whose spring serves as the primary water source to the capital, the UN reported water shortages affecting upwards of four million people.” — https://www.trtworld.com/in-depth/how-could-one-natural-water-spring-unravel-the-ceasefire-in-syria-273588
The add’l source for the Barada is Lake Barada, a small lake that is also a karst spring located about 8 kilometres (5.0 mi) from Zabadani.
–The Metolius River is truly one of the prettiest rivers in the nation. With crystal clear, and always cold water (42 to 45 degrees is average) originating from a large spring at the base of Black Butte, the Metolius is Heaven on Earth for both fishermen and fish. [Oregon] https://flyfishersplace.com/our-waters/metolius-river/
Entire rivers are sourced from Springs, even in Syria’s desert. Obviously these cannot be part of the hydrological cycle. Nor can the nonsaline water emerging from the Gakkel Ridge.
One wonders, Seb, why you wd try to discredit info of great value to everyone except the oligarchs who are buying up water rights everywhere.
And you’ve still failed to produce any evidence on their side.
[…] North Atlantic Ocean Rapidly Cooling…Cool Down And Growing Arctic Sea Ice May Follow […]
Against the insanity!
You do know that this substansive claim is in the sidebar of this blog you linked to. Not the least bit skeptical where this comes from, are we?
So even if it were true. 53 pounds per month per household doesn’t sound so bad to achieve sustainability (or lots of, don’t know the UK plans in detail).
In comparison, the UK has 27.2 million households and monthly income tax per household per month is around 544 pounds. And that tax makes up only 25% of all the UK tax revenue. That sum that you think is insane is a tiny amount compared to other expenses that are far more questionable.
On Google shows articles like this it’s obviously to deceive people. They only mention North Atlantic and it’s skeptical at best we’re really not concerned with regional changes were concerned with global changes
Just a simple question: who deleted my comment and why? Stuck in spam or are you really incapable of accepting critism?
Cry, baby cry… !
Any opinion rants from you are meaningless GARBAGE.
They deserve to be flushed down the sewer.
In your slimy ARROGANCE you actually think you are somehow “important”
Just a leech on the forum. sucking for attention.
Re-post for reference:
It has not stabilized!
Has it? Or are you again confusing SMB with net ice mass changes?
Seems to be a link to the WordPress admin interface.
The graph shows the heat content for the Labrador Sea as mentioned in the paper, not the North Atlantic (NA).
You can get the data for the North Atlantic here:
https://data.nodc.noaa.gov/woa/DATA_ANALYSIS/3M_HEAT_CONTENT/DATA/basin/3month/h22-a0-700m1-3.dat (Jan-Mar period) or https://data.nodc.noaa.gov/woa/DATA_ANALYSIS/3M_HEAT_CONTENT/DATA/basin/yearly/h22-a0-700m.dat (yearly)
4th column is NA. Heat content of the NA (and the South Atlantic) is clearly increasing in recent years.
That seems to be a very persistent skeptics myth.
Which increases heat content uptake since this part of the surface is losing less energy towards space now.
And yet the following graph’s title is just “North Atlantic Ocean Heat Content”. You should fix that.
Yes, it is very surprising since none of this is true. Neither is the the North Atlantic cooling (OHC-wise) nor is Greenland putting on gigatons of ice (between seasons maybe, but I doubt you mean that) nor has the sea ice extent stabilized.
That is true, but your wording suggests that the entire North Atlantic’s heat content decreases … which is not the case. It is quite the opposite.
That should be a very obvious observation. CO2 in that region, doesn’t do much to ice. It is the distributed heat content from elsewhere that drives temperature variations in the polar regions. If those flows happen to transport more heat content to the Arctic more ice melts.
Substantive enough Kenneth? Looking forward to countless spike55 replies about zero science, blabla and nobody accepting that this blog needs an editor who can proofread articles 😉
“It has not stabilized!”
roflmao.. The DISHONESTY of seb is seen yet again.
I said last 10 years.. why post a LYING graph going back further.
DMI Volume is above every year back to 2005, except 2014, which it is basically level with
NSIDC is above every year back to and 2006 except 2008, 2009, and 2015
MASIE is above every year back to 2006 except 2008 and 2013(so close it was above 2013 on 3rd July)
Seb shown to be attempting to LIE yet again.
BLATANT DISHONESTY is your thing.. isn’t it seb.
And the cAGW advocates lack of historical perspective requires them to ignore all the evidence about the 1970s alarm about the evident climate cooling. Thus they call it all ‘a myth’, however that is a lie propagated by ignorant liars.
We’ve been there before when Kenneth wrote —
And by Pierre here —
Cooling noted by the 1970s was not a ‘myth’ as cAGW propagandist would have people believe, it was real.
*sigh* But of course some cAGW propagandists believe arstechnica·com is a good science reference. 😉
I’d counter that with http://www.populartechnology.net/2013/02/the-1970s-global-cooling-alarmism.html for a more credible look at what was said, written, and shown from back then. A couple of quotes from that link — “Professor Hubert Lamb says that a new ice age is creeping over the northern hemisphere.” – ‘The Most Trusted Man in America’, Peabody Award Winner Walter Cronkite, 1972, and “The ice age is due now anytime” – Professor George Kukla, Columbia University, 1974
Also I recall reading many articles at the time (in the late 1960s and 1970s) in publications such as Nature, Newsweek, (http://www.denisdutton.com/cooling_world.htm ) New Scientist and so many others. I remember all the hype over the real possibility of a new ice-age occurring within my lifetime. Governments, the UN, national armed forces, industry, and the big banks were all genuinely worried about this possibility.
“entire North Atlantic’s heat content decreases … which is not the case.”
There’s that idiotic “its cooling, so heat content increases” yapping again
“Heat content of the NA clearly increasing in recent years. “
ROFLMAO.. seb uses the big El Nino as evidence of warming so sad.. so predictable
At least he didn’t try to link it to human CO2 this time
As for the disinformation from the arse-tech blog about the 1970s ice age scare.
You have to be joking .. The literature is full of it.
You should be more sceptical of the alarmist blogs you link to seb. Arse is one of the worst for LIES and disinformation (so one you would naturally choose).
“It is the distributed heat content from elsewhere that drives temperature variations in the polar regions”
Yes, from the build-up of solar energy…
CO2, NOPE, nothing to do with it. ZERO human forcing.
There is absolutely ZERO EVIDENCE of CO2 warming oceans or anything else.
But you know that, don’t you seb. 😉
I know what your reply is referring to, but why quote something unrelated? Oh and I know that you don’t seem to grasp that a cooler ocean surface (relative to the same time of year from before) causes heat content to increase, not decrease. Thanks for demonstrating this lack of knowledge again and again …
You could have at least clicked on those heat content data links. That would have spared you some embarrassment. But what can we expect from someone who doesn’t care about how “smart” he comes across with everything he posts 😉
Do you think this strategy is working, clown spikey?
I hope you didn’t just realize that this is exactly what climate science says too. Or do you have to change your opinion now because it can’t be aligned with mainstream science whatever the cost?
You have no idea, do you?
The headless chook is still mindlessly cackling.
No CO2 warming evidence anywhere.
Poor headless chook.
“I hope you didn’t just realize that this is exactly what climate science says too”
Its always been just solar energy, totally natural. (maybe some seismic stuff as well)
Glad you have FINALLY realised that.
Certainly NO EVIDENCE of any effect from CO2.
If you think you have any real evidence of CO2 warming anything..
.. then leave the headless chook routine out of it. (You don’t really think its working for you, do you?? roflmao.)
Actually, NOTHING is working for you, is it seb because NOTHING is all you have. Hence your pathetic desperation and manic attention seeking.
It must be the height of embarrassment for you to be so absolutely EMPTY of any actual evidence.
No wonder you have adopted the headless chook routine in basically every post.
You could of course just PRODUCE THE EVIDENCE
.. OR NOT.
“You could have at least clicked on those heat content data links.”
What’s embarrassing (for you) is that you don’t realise its from the El Nino.
“But what can we expect from someone who doesn’t care about how “smart”.. cackle, cackle.. “
You certainly don’t seem to care how UNBELIEVABLE DUMB and INGORANT you come across as… in all your posts.
You actually seem to BASK in that ignorance and in your inept inability to produce any evidence for even the most basic meme of the AGW cult.
You make point of HIGHLIGHTING it.
I’m hoping that maybe one day you will get up enough guts to answer two simple questions… (so we can all have a get laugh)
Q1. In what way has the climate changed in the last 40 years, and how are those changes scientifically attributable to human activity ?
Q2. Do you have ANY EVIDENCE that humans have changed the global climate in ANYWAY WHATSOEVER?
Which method will you adopt, I wonder? 😉
An honest attempt to answer.. or
.. the headless chook routine.
Or in seb-fantasy-world
Spike55, I’m sorry, this is really gross, but there really was a headless chook, you know.
WOW, a headless chook with more brain-power than seb.
Totally understandable, and totally expected.
“CO2 in that region, doesn’t do much to ice.”
Well, we finally have an admission. 🙂
CO2 doesn’t melt ice.
Tiny faltering steps, seb
Now all you have to do is ADMIT that CO2 doesn’t do much ANYWHERE, except help plant growth, and you will have finally come out of the dark of your fetid troll-hole, and into the light of REALITY.
As predicted …
.. seb produces zero evidence.
the FACT is that Sea surface temperatures in the North Atlantic Ocean have been running at below-normal levels for several weeks
ARGO data also shows cooling
And of course, to put the whole solar forced OHC rise in the last half century or so, into perspective..
.. see that little red squiggle.
Mid-ocean seismic activity and consequently, mid-ocean geothermal heat flux, have been declining rapidly since 2014. As outlined in my most recent paper, “Have Global Temperatures Reached a Tipping Point?” this will result in a deceleration of the thermohaline circulation and global temperatures going forward (https://www.omicsonline.org/open-access/have-global-temperatures-reached-a-tipping-point-2573-458X-1000149.pdf}.
Nice work Art, 🙂
.. not much room left for mythical, unproven CO2 warming is there. 😉
And unlike climate séance, the predictor is within a short time period.
The “skeptic” predictions always were on short time periods. That makes another “it is going to cool” prediction all the more ridiculous. I guess no amount of continued warming vs. all the failed predictions of “skeptics” can ever make you see that you have no clue …
So, again ABSOLTELY NOTHING, just empty cackling.
Been very little warming, and just out of the COLDEST period in 10,000 years, some is to be expected, and a BLESSING
Last 40 years, warming has only come from solar and seismic forced ocean warming
As you well know by now, seb, there is absolutely ZERO evidence of any human effect on ocean heat content.
If you think you have any empirical evidence of humans affecting the OHC except by adjustments, then..
.. feel free to post that evidence
.. or just keep up the headless chook evasion routine..
Don’t worry spike55, it’s just more hokum from the liar in chief.
[…] North Atlantic Ocean Rapidly Cooling…Cool Down And Growing Arctic Sea Ice May Follow […]
[…] Read more at No Tricks Zone […]
[…] Read more at No Tricks Zone […]
Art, you surprise me: “The resulting correlation between the HGFA frequencies and the lagged global temperatures is 0.777, a statistically significant outcome that explains 60.3% of the variance in global temperatures.”
Quite interesting if a longterm correlation could be demonstrated between ocean seismic activity, and therefore escaped geothermal activity, on warming global surface temperatures. Of course we’d need longterm data that corresponded to our roughly 60-yr alteration between warming & cooling.
Are you postulating that seismic/HGFA activity might be a factor in the PDO & AMO?
One could wish that the “global temperature” which is given us were more certain, less manipulated. Your correlation might then be even better.
Thank you. Interesting.