Sea Level Shock…Satellite Imagery Shows Coral Islands Expanding! …”Results Challenge Existing Narratives Of Island Loss”

Despite sea level rise, Tuvalu Islands surface area has grown 3% over the past decades

By Dr. Sebastian Lüning and Prof. Fritz Vahrenholt
(German text translated/edited by P Gosselin)

The South Sea islands are sinking. Send us money and visas for Australia and USA fast! That’s the underlying message of many media reports on the problem of sea level rise and their effects on the Pacific Coral Islands. Here science simply gets cast aside.

Since coral islands are made up of living organisms that have always lived just below the sea level, the islands “float” like ships on the surface of the ocean. When sea level goes up, so do the corals. This is already something you learn in geography lessons at school.

Paul Kench and his colleagues have now measured the shorelines of all 101 islands of Tuvalu for the last 40 years using satellite imagery. The result: The land area grew by just under 3% during this period, despite a fairly strong regional sea-level rise of 4 mm per year. Here is the abstract of the work that appeared in February 2018 in Nature Communications:

Patterns of island change and persistence offer alternate adaptation pathways for atoll nations

Sea-level rise and climatic change threaten the existence of atoll nations. Inundation and erosion are expected to render islands uninhabitable over the next century, forcing human migration. Here we present analysis of shoreline change in all 101 islands in the Pacific atoll nation of Tuvalu. Using remotely sensed data, change is analysed over the past four decades, a period when local sea level has risen at twice the global average (~3.90 ± 0.4 mm.yr−1). Results highlight a net increase in land area in Tuvalu of 73.5 ha (2.9%), despite sea-level rise, and land area increase in eight of nine atolls. Island change has lacked uniformity with 74% increasing and 27% decreasing in size. Results challenge perceptions of island loss, showing islands are dynamic features that will persist as sites for habitation over the next century, presenting alternate opportunities for adaptation that embrace the heterogeneity of island types and their dynamics.”

Source: Nature Communications

The discussion part of the paper states:

Results challenge existing narratives of island loss showing that island expansion has been the most common physical alteration throughout Tuvalu over the past four decades. Of significance, documented increases in island area over this period have occurred as the sea level has been rising.”

17 responses to “Sea Level Shock…Satellite Imagery Shows Coral Islands Expanding! …”Results Challenge Existing Narratives Of Island Loss””

  1. Kurt in Switzerland

    Most inconvenient, that.

    “Move along folks, nothing to see here.”

    1. SebastianH

      Indeed, not much to see here. Those islands didn’t come into existence because the sea level decreased and they won’t just go out of existence because it increases (depending on how much). Also it’s weird that someone would call them “floating” islands.

      1. Kurt in Switzerland

        LOL!

        Then please advise your mentors at the UN of your recent epiphany that “… [the Tuvalu islands] won’t just go out of existence because [sea level] increases.”

        https://youtu.be/L-gpHgebunY

        Bummer. There goes another poster child for the Global Warming scare. Damn shame, those pesky satellite data images. Ruined quite a party.

        Tuvalu and Kiribati aren’t disappearing after all. Maybe you’ll even earn that coveted Nobel Prize you keep harping about.

        Aren’t you the fellow who was whining about credibility just recently?

        1. SebastianH

          “(depending on how much)” … don’t just LOL rant away because you feel like it.

          1. Kurt in Switzerland

            What rate of sea level increase would cause Tuvalu and Kiribati to disappear, Seb?

  2. John F. Hultquist

    “floating” ?? Not exactly:

    The saying holds that the world is supported by a chain of increasingly large turtles. Beneath each turtle is yet another: it is “turtles all the way down”.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Turtles_all_the_way_down#/media/File:River_terrapin.jpg

    1. Bitter&twisted

      Careful. Our resident troll might actually believe what you said.

      1. SebastianH

        Bitter&twisted, you told us that you understand science and work in science. Why are all your comments like this one? Why not add to the discussion? Correct your fellow skeptics when they are completely wrong instead of staying silent all the time only uttering DNFT comments or stuff like this? I am sure the skeptics here would appreciate an actual scientist commenting with more constructive comments.

        1. Kenneth Richard

          So you find yourself in the position to tell others here that they need to offer constructive comments…that have substance? The irony. A few days ago you wrote this in response to what Dr. Lüdecke wrote:

          http://notrickszone.com/2018/10/10/german-climate-scientist-accuses-ipcc-of-alarmism-in-the-red-rev-range-of-ideology-and-reality-loss/#comment-1275615

          A retired climate scientist at EIKE … since when is fluid mechanics part equivalent with climate science? (link)

          And since when is EIKE a source of actual science? Their blog is even worse than Principia-scientific.

          And what should we think of Mr. Lüdecke for writing articles for this website?

          ….

          Lüdecke has no serious publication in climate science [a false claim]

          Do you find this comment constructive and substantive?

          1. SebastianH

            So you find yourself in the position to tell others here that they need to offer constructive comments…that have substance?

            Well, he exclusively posts those oneliners but boasted in a recent comment that he “knows science”: http://notrickszone.com/2018/10/09/wind-energy-wont-function-for-supplying-germany-with-power-experts-say/#comment-1275624

            Don’t you think he could contribute to what others here called “a scientific discussion”?

            A few days ago you wrote this in response to what Dr. Lüdecke wrote […] Do you find this comment constructive and substantive?

            The article was not constructive or substantive. I asked a simple question that stirred up the pitchfork mob. Just like your reply here it was not meant to be a substantive rebuttal of whatever Professor Dr. Lüdecke said (you keep the Professor title after retirement in Germany, I don’t know why you are omitting it after I was scorned for writing “Mr. Lüdecke”).

            Or do you think this reply of yours is constructive and substantive?

            A note from you saying “yes, I would appreciate if Bitter&twisted – an actual scientist – would contribute more to the discussions” would have been constructive. Or even a “well, it is his decision what to write or comment as long as it stays civil” would have been constructive.

            Yet you decided to attack me. Why?

          2. Kenneth Richard

            Don’t you think he could contribute to what others here called “a scientific discussion”?

            I am noting the irony of your chiding another poster for not contributing to a scientific discussion when you are yourself routinely posting comments that are neither substantive or rooted in scientific themes. You call people names, whine when others call you names (“I like puppies and spike55 is using them in a negative way portraying me a a ‘puppy-troll’ chasing my own tail”), insult people who do not share your beliefs about CO2 as a climate driver, toil in feckless analogies, and veer off on ridiculous tangents that have nothing to do with the articles here. This occurs on a routine basis.

            Yet you decided to attack me. Why?

            As just detailed (again), you don’t have the standing here to tell others that they need to write substantively in these comment boards. You’d first need to do so yourself…and even then it’s a little off-putting to tell other people how and what they should write.

            It’s like you routinely telling me that I should stop using the WordPress moderation format to write comments. Who are you to tell me how to operate on these comment boards? It’s like you think you have the standing to just walk into other people’s homes and rearrange their furniture or help yourself to a beer from the fridge. The arrogance and rudeness displayed here is stomach-turning.

          3. SebastianH

            when you are yourself routinely posting comments that are neither substantive or rooted in scientific themes

            All I do here is trying to show you where your understanding of science is wrong (in my opinion) and reply to troll comments or whatever this is what you doing in this very thread. Those last conversations aren’t constructive at all, that is correct. Also some of the replies to what I write and my replies to those aren’t constructive … I give you that.

            You call people names

            Not really, I just refused to call you guys skeptics. But since you insist on that nowadays, I’ll comply to not offend you too much.

            whine when others call you names (“I like puppies and spike55 is using them in a negative way portraying me a a ‘puppy-troll’ chasing my own tail”)

            Ha, you still don’t get where I was going with that complaint 😉 Cute.

            insult people who do not share your beliefs about CO2 as a climate driver

            I insult people?! Good one! Wouldn’t you say that now that spike55 decided to leave things have become much more civil? The level of insults I had to endure from him and people that joined in because it seemed fun .. I learned to ignore those pretty well, but I can’t say I am 100% immune to such provocations 🙂

            toil in feckless analogies

            I had to google feckless. Right, just because you generally don’t analogies doesn’t mean they are feckless. Maybe feckless because you ignore them and they don’t cause you to change your view on a topic. Then you are right, of course 😉

            and veer off on ridiculous tangents that have nothing to do with the articles here

            That is actually what you do all the time. Partly caused by your use of the WordPress admin interface which doesn’t seem to be able to show you a complete thread (and lets you reply in the middle of a thread instead of at the end, disturbing the usually sorted by time order of comments). Partly you find it important that I answer questions like what caused something specific or by how much CO2 warms water when a thread is about a basic logical fallacy (A causes B, we observe B, therefore it’s A that is causing it).

            Hmm, Bitter&twisted boasted that he knows science, yet he writes only comments like the one above. Why should I not complain about his lack of substance and ask an actual scientist for more constructive comments when he is addressing me all the time?

            It’s like you routinely telling me that I should stop using the WordPress moderation format to write comments. Who are you to tell me how to operate on these comment boards?

            I just told you why this way of commenting is problematic:
            1) you only see the comment you are replying to
            2) your reply gets posted directly below that comment even though older replies exist. This puts your reply somewhere in the middle out of order with the rest of the comments (sorted by time). Makes it hard to find.

            I bet you replied to my comment above (link) also because you just saw this one comment without the one I replied to (I didn’t quote what Bitter&twisted wrote). Don’t you think this lack of context influenced what you replied to me? I do!

          4. Kenneth Richard

            You call people names

            Not really

            insult people who do not share your beliefs about CO2 as a climate driver

            I insult people?! Good one!

            It is absolutely amazing to me the extent to which you are in denial.

            Why should I not complain about [another commentator’s] lack of substance and ask an actual scientist for more constructive comments

            For the 3rd and final time, because you are in no position — you lack the moral standing — to sit in judgment of another commentator’s writing style or choices, claiming that another’s comments lack substance and constructiveness when you are yourself guilty of routinely posting comments replete with name-calling, insults, pejorative and condescending “cheap shots” that are non-substantive, off topic, and seemingly designed to distract and annoy the other commentators here.

            Perhaps this third detailed explanation has cleared things up for you.

  3. richard

    old news-

    Pacific islands growing, not sinking – ABC News (Australian …
    Climate scientists have expressed surprise at findings that many low-lying Pacific islands are growing, not sinking. Islands in Tuvalu, Kiribati and the Federated States of Micronesia are among …
    Search domain http://www.abc.net.auabc.net.au/news/2010-06-03/pacific-islands-growing-n...

  4. Ed Reid

    They just need to be careful as they build new infrastructure that it is uniformly distributed so that the islands don’t tip over. (HT: US Rep Hank Johnson, D, GA)

  5. Global Warming Pause Persists Discrediting IPCC Alarm | PSI Intl

    […] fact, one recent paper found, for example, that the South Sea Tuvalu islands have grown, the shaming climate […]

  6. La pausa del riscaldamento globale si allunga ... Ora è chiaro che la proiezione di riscaldamento dell'IPCC era eccessiva : Attività Solare ( Solar Activity )

    […] effetti, in un recente studio si dimostra, ad esempio, che le isole Tuvalu del Mar del Sud sono cresciute, che fanno vergognare […]

By continuing to use the site, you agree to the use of cookies. more information

The cookie settings on this website are set to "allow cookies" to give you the best browsing experience possible. If you continue to use this website without changing your cookie settings or you click "Accept" below then you are consenting to this. More information at our Data Privacy Policy

Close