The last two years of minimal solar activity did not prevent the earth from warming, and thus shows that the theory that the recent abnormally low solar activity could lead to a little ice age is false, so writes German FOCUS magazine.
Online FOCUS magazine here reports on how solar activity has awoken, and thus the prospects of a new little ice age befalling the planet are now excluded.According to FOCUS, the sun has been showing some “hefty” activity over the last weeks. The series of violent eruptions had started already back in early spring, and increased in frequency over the summer.
FOCUS here is hyping the current solar activity, making it sound like the sun is really firing up. Solar Cycle 24 indeed has started, but is still sputtering badly, see the following graphic:
Not only is solar cycle 24 way behind schedule, and that scientists have had to postpone its projected start a number of times, solar cycle 24 is still well behind even the latest updated projection, and it may have a hard time reaching 75 sunspots when it peaks. Yet, FOCUS writes:
The sun is proving, in the most impressive way, that its period of minimum activity is now over and is now powering ahead toward its maximum of its new cycle, which will be in 2013.
The increasing activity not only settles the dispute of a new little ice age for good, But in interaction with the El Niño, which dominated in the Pacific until summer, it could also make 2010 the warmest year since records have been kept.
So FOCUS is claiming that the recent low solar activity couldn’t stop the hot 2010. And because solar cycle 24 is is getting active, FOCUS now sees nothing getting in the way of more warming. Rising temperatures despite 2 years of little solar activity proves the sun is not the driver. Worries of a little ice age were for nothing. So get back to worrying about global warming!
FOCUS makes this earth-shattering conclusion based on just a couple of years of observation. This kind of junk science is not unusual in the German media.
In the report FOCUS emphasizes how some scientists were concerned about the possibility of a new little ice age beginning, like during the Maunder and Dalton minimums. FOCUS writes:
Due to the recent reduced radiation by the sun, cooling of the planet was expected. Some scientists even prophesied a little ice age.
FOCUS explains how some solar scientists believe solar activity effected global temperature in the past.
The cause of the devastating cold periods was the sun. During the entire Little Ice Age, it showed only very minimal activity, which was evidenced by the very small number of sunspots. In one 30-year phase of the Maunder-Minimum, only 50 spots showed up – normal would be thousands.
FOCUS then dismisses the theory applies today, saying the theory of the recent solar minimum causing cool temperatures has failed:
Some climate sceptics even announced a cooling of about 0,2°C, but that was a false conclusion, as 2009 was the 5th warmest year since temperature recording began. The months of January to July, 2010 were the warmest such period ever – even though the sun was still close to its low period of activity.
So even with 2 or three years of low solar activity, it still got hot, and so the theory is dead, FOCUS tells its readers. FOCUS avoids mentioning the impact of the 2009/2010 El Nino. Finally, FOCUS concludes:
Nobody has to worry about another little ice age occurring. Even if the sun were to go into a protracted minimum, the rise in temperatutres brought on by GHG would compensate for it.
I wonder what FOCUS will write if Joe Bastardi’s forecast for the next few years pans out.