The European Institute For Climate and Environment (EIKE) in Germany recently had a piece at it’s blogsite here, which I have summarized.
The USA has James Hansen, and England has Phil Jones. Germany now has Prof. Dr. Gerhard Adrian, the new President of the German Weather Service. His mission: to produce a trend to climate catastrophe as quickly as possible. Recently he said:
The average temperature in Germany has risen by in 1.1°C from 1881 to 2009. It could go up another 2 to 4°C by the end of the century.
We’ll have a completely whole new set of extremes to deal with; that’s the threat.
This is the new message from the once respected German Weather Service. Suddenly, doom and gloom are the forecast.
Inconveniently for Dr. Adrian, his own data and earlier statements made by German Weather Institutes seem to contradict his claims.
Firstly, why choose a timescale that starts in 1881 when records go back as much as 300 years in Europe? The following graphics are temperature charts going back more than 200 years for some European cities (visit EIKE for better quality graphics (here).
Here’s the temperature chart for Berlin going back 300 years (same as above in the introduction):
There we don’t see much going on until about 1990. In fact the total trend is 0.08″C rise per century – statistically insignificant. Surely Dr. Adrian is aware of this.
Now let’s take a look at the temperature CO2 correlation.
Poor correlation there too. While atmospheric CO2 concentrations climbed from 1750 to 1980, Berlin’s temperature did the opposite. But when one is hired to promote global warming alarmism, then 1881 is a good place to start.
Let’s go back and look at the last 2000 years. Maybe that’ll reveal something more earth-shattering.
All the climate catastrophe talk put out by Hansen, Jones, and now Dr. Gerhard Adrian, simply do not materialize when you take an honest look at the statistics.
As far as weather extremes occurring, here’s what the German Weather Institutes said in the pre-Gerhard-Adrian days, just a couple of years ago. According to the German Weather Service, recently quoting the German Meteorological Society, 3/2002, p. 2:
When it comes to extreme weather events, no significant trend can be observed up to now. Also such events like the flooding of 2002 are part of the norm in our climate.
According to a German Weather Service press conference 24 April 2007, Berlin;
Up to now there has been no increase of extreme events: Up to now – with the exception of the already mentioned heavy summertime precipitation – there has been no detectable systematic changes or shifts of extreme values.
And again, according to the German Meteorological Society 3/2002, S. 2, on the flood of 2002:
Also such events, like the big flood of 2002, are part of the norm in our climate.
Dr. Adrian ought to listen to his own data.