This year we’ve been hearing various reports of a cold winter predicted for Europe and western Russia. There has even been a report on the possibly of the coldest winter in 1000 years for parts of Russia.Maybe meteorologists there found out that Gore plans to do a lot of traveling over there, and thus have adjusted their forecasts. We all know what weather he packs in his baggage when he travels. Gore Effect.
Germany’s leading tabloid, Bild, which has a circulation that is twice the size as both the Wall Street Journal and USA Today combined, joins the fray of projecting a cold winter. It cites two German meteorologists who are predicting that Germany is about to experience one of the worst winters in a 100 years. Read here. For the record, these 2 meteorologists are private and not government-funded ones.
Dr. Karsten Brandt of the private weather service Donnerwetter.de and Dominik Jung of the weather services Wetter.net are predicting that November and the first half of December will have mild spells, with temperatures even pushing near the 60°F mark at times. But, they warn this:
…is a harbinger of a very cold winter“
According to Bild newspaper, Jung claims:
Beginning in January it’s going to be bitter cold with nighttime temperatures under -20°C. After a short thaw in in early February, a new cold snap will roll over Germany. Winter will keep its icy grip deep into the month of March.”
Dr. Brandt projects that the Atlantic current, which pumps mild air over the continent, will break down in December and be replaced by cold easterly continental winds. These predictions are based on computer models using: data over the last 100 years, current oceanic data and volcanic activity, as well as animal migration patterns and animal winter fur. Personally I don’t believe the winter fur hypothesis.
But unlike the claimed consensus in climate science, meteorologists are not unanimous on these predictions of a cold winter. According to Bild, the state-funded German Weather Service for example predicts a normal winter, and adds:
A normal winter will feel cold because of the often mild temperatures experienced over the last 20 years.
I should have known – now global warming causes perceived cold winters!
Meanwhile yet another German meteorologist here, Thomas Globig, says there’s a 70% chance that the coming winter will be too cold. What does the US National Weather Service forecast for Europe?
2010/11 NWS winter forecast for Europe.
So expect to hear a lot about “natural variability” from the European warmists this winter.
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UPDATE: Joe Bastardi at his euro-blogsite predicts a cold snap coming soon:
…blocking is developing and a major early season outbreak of cold looks to be shaping up as we wind the clock toward December. Fitting that with the first anniversary of the release of the climate emails, the weather may again try to prove its point that man can’t control nature.”
For comparison see at ICECAP: “2009/10 Winter El Nino Very Different than 1997/98; Look at US Winter 2010/11 “ by Joseph D’Aleo, CCM , Tuesday, November 02, 2010; http://icecap.us/index.php/go/joes-blog , concluding: “The degree and location of blocking high pressure in the Atlantic will determine how much cold and snow in Europe and Asia.”
Last year the first sea ice was observed in the Baltic Sea at the end of October/beginning of November (2009) in the inner bays of the Hailuoto and Kokkola regions. For this year no sea ice report has been issued yet (15. Nov.), http://www.itameriportaali.fi/en/itamerinyt/en_GB/jaatilanne/
“Normal” means “back to normal”, i.e. before CAGW.
Look here for the La Nina forecast for Europe – table:
http://iri.ldgo.columbia.edu/climate/forecast/net_asmt/
and a map for DEC-JAN-FEB:
http://iri.columbia.edu/climate/forecast/net_asmt/2010/oct2010/DJF11_Eur_temp.html
Looks like we’ll get an anomaly compared to the climatology of zero. Which is a drop from from a few years ago, and means -20 deg C minima for Northern Germany.
It’s interesting how much the Jan/Feb/Mar prediction changes for Aug, Sep and Oct. Almost as if they’ve got no idea what will happen but will have a prediction to wave to prove they got it right.
The Artic Oscillation is about to head negative, which tends to give the UK cold weather.
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/ao.sprd2.gif
The UK Central England Temperature anomaly for the year is currently -0.05C
All indicators including our Sun, NAO, PDO, Negative Arctic Oscillation, renewed building of blocking high pressure area “at the right spot” and an increase in volcanic activity (our wild card but still…) are all pointing to a cold West European winter.
If we get anything other that that I would be surprised.
“now global warming causes perceived cold winters!”
That made me laugh!
I hope really that no one suffers a truly freezing winter because people die in very cold winters, give me a heat wave anyday.
We shall see, people do grow used to milder temps and maybe think it is the norm, that is just human nature.
Continental Europe is better at coping with Snow and ice, than us poor twits in Britain – 2” (20mms) can mean chaos here!
OT/
Rahmstorf sea level post:
http://www.wissenslogs.de/wblogs/blog/klimalounge/klimadaten/2010-11-14/meeresspiegel-die-new-york-times-hat-die-story
Here at NYT:
http://green.blogs.nytimes.com/2010/11/13/a-nighttime-epiphany-on-sea-level/
forgot this Johnny Cash lyrics:
How high’s the water, mama?
Two feet high and risin’
How high’s the water, papa?
Two feet high and risin’
We can make it to the road in a homemade boat
That’s the only thing we got left that’ll float
It’s already over all the wheat and the oats,
Two feet high and risin’
How high’s the water, mama?
Three feet high and risin’
How high’s the water, papa?
Three feet high and risin’
Well, the hives are gone,
I’ve lost my bees
The chickens are sleepin’
In the willow trees
Cow’s in water up past her knees,
Three feet high and risin’
How high’s the water, mama?
Four feet high and risin’
How high’s the water, papa?
Four feet high and risin’
Hey, come look through the window pane,
The bus is comin’, gonna take us to the train
Looks like we’ll be blessed with a little more rain,
4 feet high and risin’
How high’s the water, mama?
Five feet high and risin’
How high’s the water, papa?
Five feet high and risin’
Well, the rails are washed out north of town
We gotta head for higher ground
We can’t come back till the water comes down,
Five feet high and risin’
Well, it’s five feet high and risin’
Great; the Rahmstorf song!
A Cold Autumn, definitely not for Orsekes.
JoNova reports on unreason at University of Western Australia, and the visit of Prof. Naomi Orsekes.
FOXNews: 30 Years of Global Cooling Are Coming, Leading Scientist Says… White House solves the problem of global warming overnight… by officially changing the phrase to ‘global climate disruption’…. Life on this Earth Just Changed: The North Atlantic Current is Gone… National Geographic (December 24, 2009): North Magnetic Pole Moving East Due to Core Flux… PENTAGON: GLOBAL WARMING might suddenly trigger a massive GLOBAL COOLING… Now the PENTAGON TELLS BUSH (Guardian.co.uk., 22 February 2004): climate change will destroy us… BRITAIN WILL BE ‘SIBERIAN’ in less than 20 years:
http://cristiannegureanu.blogspot.com/2010/10/balkans-face-cruel-winter-report.html
Mother Nature is making a mockery of the IPCC’s man-made global warming mantra. Mother Nature is treating the IPCC’s pseudo-science and flawed theory with utter contempt.
Commonsense tells ordinary man that with the last few winters getting colder and colder, it is quite evident that the planet is not doing what the IPCC’s climate computer models want it to do. Mother Nature is also demonstrating that nothing can make her give us global warming caused by CO2 … not the IPCC, not Greenpeace, not WWF, not Phil Jones, not Michael Mann, and certainly not James Hansen. These people can fudge the surface temperature data all they like, they can fudge the computer models, but it’s not going to make any difference.