The German online Süddeutsche Zeitung has a report by Peter Lemke, who directs Climate Sciences at the Alfred Wegener Institute in Bremerhaven, Germany, and was a lead author of the now infamous 2007 IPCC report. He presents his views of the Cancun Agreement.
In the agreement, countries made pledges to limit global temperature rise to 2°C (no word if they are pledging to limit solar radiation, ocean dynamics and the Earth’s orbit as well – just to remind readers of the folly of the entire endeavour).
So what does Lemke think of the Cancun result?
What’s missing are concrete resolutions on cutting back emissions so that these targets can be reached.
The EU has already declared reducing its CO2 emissions by 20 to 30% by 2020 compared to 1990 levels. However, these commitments are not binding, and they are hardly sufficient. What is really necessary is that all industrial countries cut their GHG emissions 25 to 40 percent by 2020, and 80 to 95 percent by 2050. So it’s disappointing.
Yes, it is disappointing when people have doubts about why it’s necessary to inflict ritual self-flagellation.
Lemke then provides an overview of the history of CO2 greenhouse physics, mentioning Fourier in the early 19th century, Tyndall, and then Arrhenius. Lemke adds:
Today, using modern climate models, we expect a temperature increase of about 3°C [for a doubling of CO2].
This of course requires FAITH in climate models. Everyone knows they neglect cloud feedbacks, and can’t predict what oceans and the sun will do, and lots of other things, and so are thus just tools of modern-day charlatans.
Yet, Lemke would like to have us think that the models are infallible, and so we ought to commence with the self-flagellation rituals as soon as possible. Here Lemke cites the Holy Bible of AGW, the 2007 IPCC report.
The IPCC report of 2007 asserts that the warming of the earth is beyond doubt and that man is responsible for most of the warming over the last 50 years.
2010 will be one of the warmest years ever recorded. Sea level is rising 3.4 mm per year.”
We just had an El Nino year, and so temperatures have been warm. But that the sea level is now rising 3.4 mm/year is false. I think Lemke is still stuck on the 2007 IPCC report. He then goes on about 1 meter sea level rises and 4°C temperature increases. Remember that all these projections are based on the crystal ball models. Yesterday I wrote about how meteorologists are forecasting the opposite. Lemke adds:
Yet another calculation shows that relative to today’s standards, unusually hot summers like the one in 2003 will be normal by the year 2040, and by 2070 these hot summers will be considered as cool.
I think we’ve heard enough quackery for one day. This of course is all unscientific and is purveyed for the sole purpose of spreading fear and getting people to start torturing themselves. In Germany, we read such rubbish almost daily in the media. Lemke puts in one last word of support for the climate crystal balls:
And even if the climate models are not perfect, they are still one of the best tools for forecasting; at least they are more reliable than any tax revenue estimate or projection of economic development. For this reason they should serve as the basis for all planning.
Everybody start whipping yourself – because the models say so. Too bad the models couldn’t predict these cold winters just 2 years ago.