Photo: Accuweather
Start thinking cold, cold, cold and colder.
Joe Bastardi, AccuWeather meteorologist, meaning he’s an expert in making forecasts, and not producing goofy climate model scenarios for the next 100 years, has been looking at the oceanic and solar cycles for quite some time.
Those cycles mentioned above, combined with volcanoes, are what he calls the “triple whammy”. He again reiterates his forecast for the decades ahead at his European website.
I surmise, though, given what should be becoming obvious to watchers of these things, that the days of thinking warm, warm, warm are over, and quite the opposite will occur in the coming years and decades, and the populace should understand the honeymoon is over, the marriage of low solar and reversing oceanic cycles along with a third-party (let’s not go any further with non-weather implications… ha, ha), the volcanic activity, should raise eyebrows among the rational. Among others, short of being frozen out of ones abode, there is no getting attention.
Here’s what he’s pretty much talking about
1. Pacific Decadal Oscillation. The cycles of warm and cold in the Pacific move in 30-year phases. In the warm phase, we see more El Ninos, which boost the earth’s temperature, see Figure 1. Recently we have flipped back to the cold phase, which means more La Ninas ahead, which means a cooler planet.
PDO
2. Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation has major impacts globally. Right now we are in the middle of the warm phase, but are now on the way down for the next 10 to 20 years, see Figure 2. Strangely the phases are interrupted at about their midpoints. Perhaps we’ve hit one of these midpoint interruptions.
Figure 2: AMO will be likely in decline from its current warm phase over the next 10 to 20 years.
Both the PDO and AMO show why the globe most likely has warmed about 0.5°C over the last 40 years. Now they give us strong indications of what lies ahead for the next 2 or 3 decades.
Another tiny factor that plays a role in our climate is the sun, believe it or not. Low solar activity has shown to be strongly correlated with cold periods on this planet. Currently, contrary to what was earlier expected by NASA, cycle 24 is turning out to be one of surprisingly low activity. That bodes ill for more cooling.
Figure 3: Solar Cycle 24 is a tame one. The question is: how tame can it get?
Throw in one or two significant volcanic eruptions, and the planet is in cooling trouble. Maybe even major trouble. Clearly, many governments are preparing for the wrong scenarios, as this report here so clearly illustrates.
In fact there is a risk that the whole world could be as unprepared as the UK was for this winter, and that for decades. And they won’t be able to say they weren’t warned!
Pierre, fig 1 and 2 are the same!?
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Oooops! Fixed – thanks!
If it does indeed turn out the planet is cooling, no doubt the Alarmist’s mantra will become “We must produce more CO2” …
Pointman
Not likely on both counts.
Not likely the earth is cooling. We have a measured radiative imbalance for the planet. The heat is there but the climatic system is noisy. Bear in mind that every year of the past decade has remained, like the previous 30 years, within the 2 standard deviations of the rising trend line.
Not likely anyone is going to call for increased CO2 output because we know the forcing factor. 1.6 W/mˆ2. That dominates all other forcings by far.
Where do you get that forcing factor? Citation please.
There is no imbalance. There is no ocean warming.
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2011/01/06/new-paper-on-argo-data-trenberths-ocean-heat-still-missing/
If you measure away from UHI and down-slope winds the Arctic and Antarctic are cooling. The sun is now in Dalton Minimum mode, headed for Maunder Minimum levels. Stack all those observations on top of Joe’s observations above and the next good investments will be in snow tires and winter clothes.
“Not likely anyone is going to call for increased CO2 output because we know the forcing factor.”
No you think you know based on a whole load of false assumptions made to fit the data to the alarmist models. In time this whole new religion will be completely discredited and increased C02 levels will be seen as a good thing to combat future glacial periods.
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2010/03/08/the-logarithmic-effect-of-carbon-dioxide/
The only atmospheric CO2 levels we truly have to worry about is when it affects human health (starting from about 5000 ppm) which coincidentally are around the highest levels seen on Earth and surprise surprise the Earth was not 5-10c hotter than although I know you alarmists have a whole load of false assumptions ready to account for that inconvenient truth too ;-).
@Bob Honeycutt
Want to make a bet it’s going to get cool? (LoL)
I’ll betcha it gets cooler once a year alternating between northern and southern hemispheres. 😉
I’ll also bet that through the next century locations will continue to see record low daily temperatures every winter (albeit fewer and fewer every year).
Pierre, you are making it really hard not to give you links. Sorry and thanks. 😉
Don’t worry about it. I’m always open.
Bastardi said: Joe Bastardi: “Days Of Thinking Warm, Warm, Warm Are Over”
Not this winter, Mr Bastardi. Now the main problem in Germany and Poland is that thaw threatens floods:
http://www.thelocal.de/national/20110107-32273.html
If you watch Joe’s free broadcast of the 30th of December : Why the Globe Will (Is) Cool(ing), or Will Appear To, he makes an interesting point.
If the global temperatures turn towards what were experienced during the sixties and seventies then : Not enough energy is currently produced worldwide to keep the current worlds population warm or fed.
You can see Joe’s clip here
Sorry crook link
Here is The Link to Joe Bastardis clips
December 2010 Part 1 Europe and Asia by Joseph D’Aleo
http://icecap.us/images/uploads/DECEMBER_2010_-_Europe_and_Asia.pdf
Part 2 will be about the USA and Part 3 about the Southern Hemisphere.
Great read, excellent work.
Denver Global Warming Conference takes off at -22 Degree Celsius
Sorry, here is the link:
http://stevengoddard.wordpress.com/2011/01/07/new-forecast-for-denver-global-warming-conference/
“Low solar activity has shown to be strongly correlated with cold periods on this planet ”
Reminds me of when people look in shock and awe if someone describes CO2 as food for plants, its “supposed” to be a terrible toxin that needs to be neutralised.
So when the suns activity is mentioned alongside evidence such as the cold periods people can appreciate more the complexities of our climate and the evidence that man are not the main drivers of global warming.
Piers Corbyn latest newsletter:
2011 – Another year of weather extremes warns Piers
“Solar-lunar driven major jet stream blocking will continue through January and the whole of 2011 giving
more extreme cold and snowy / blizzardy spells in parts of USA, Britain and Europe though January continuing
into February and then not the sort of Spring and Summer the warmists want.
“The warmists will fail and fail again to predict what is coming and are now writing scripts to deceive the public into
believing that cold is warm by showing you “data” which has had 62% of recording station* they didn’t like removed.
“It was disgraceful to see Dr Liz Bentley of The Royal Meteorological Society mouthing warmist apologist inanities on
BBC news 24 on 5th Jan. I am a member of or have been associated with the RMS since schooldays and I know a lot of
members don’t agree with this propaganda and don’t recall ever been asked if the RMS should promote it.”
Read the entire newsletter here:
http://www.weatheraction.com/docs/WANews11No1.pdf
“Falsi fication Of The Atmospheric CO2 Greenhouse E ffects Within The Frame Of Physics”
http://arxiv.org/PS_cache/arxiv/pdf/0707/0707.1161v4.pdf
Wow! I recommend that everyone at least attempt to read this. Don’t be put off by the mathematics, it is the conclusions that are important.
Also look at the correlation between CO2 and global temperatures over the last 600m years, there is none !
http://www.geocraft.com/WVFossils/PageMill_Images/image277.gif
http://www.geocraft.com/WVFossils/Carboniferous_climate.html
UN IPCC Green Doctor Prescribes End to Democracy: Calls for ‘elite warrior leadership’ to ‘battle for future of the earth’ — Warns humanity is a ‘malignant eco-tumour’ and an ‘ecological cancer’
Prof. David Shearman, MD, (mountlofty@ozemail.com.au) is Emeritus Prof. of U. of Adelaide: ‘Argues liberal democracy is an impediment to finding ecologically sustainable solutions for planet’ — ‘Global warming presents such a massive and immediate danger that democracy no longer cuts it, and an authoritarian ecological government of ‘natural elites’ will have to be found to replace it’
For details see http://www.climatedepot.com
Such kooks are really dangerous. They would never listen to any science.
Indeed, don’t know if you reported on these other kooks at Cancun at the time but if not here’s more of this mad group think …
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/earth/copenhagen-climate-change-confe/8165769/Cancun-climate-change-summit-scientists-call-for-rationing-in-developed-world.html
Heh, James Hansen the High Priest of Alarmism cracks me up
http://hauntingthelibrary.wordpress.com/2011/01/06/james-hansen-1986-within-15-years-temps-will-be-hotter-than-past-100000-years/
“Hansen said the average U.S. temperature had risen from one to two degrees since 1958 and is predicted to increase an additional 3 or 4 degrees sometime between 2010 and 2020.”
“Within 15 years,” said Goddard Space Flight Honcho James Hansen, “global temperatures will rise to a level which hasn’t existed on earth for 100,000 years”.
“If there were slow growth in the use of hydrocarbon fuels, the world in the middle of the next century would be as warm as it was 125,000 years ago, when lions, elephants and other tropical animals roamed a balmy southern England.”
If only ! LOL
To me he appears confused.
None of Hansen’s predictions has EVER come true, why would this one. For the life of me, I don’t know why he still manages GISS. He should have been fired the first time he was arrested at a demonstration. He is an embarrassment to NASA.
Not true, Ed. Hansen projected back in 1980’s that temperature would continue to rise in the following decades. That was quite a bold statement at the time given that most of the previous decades from the 40’s to the 70’s had been cooling. But those predictions have turned out to be true for 30 years running.
In fact, if you look at Hansen’s early models they projected temperature quite well. His models included climate sensitivity to CO2 at 4.2C and his projections turned out a little high. If you merely back the sensitivity down to the current estimates of 3C then his projections are pretty much right on the money.
Obama wants American to have an Internet ID
http://www.cbsnews.com/8301-501465_162-20027837-501465.html
We all see where we are going.
It’s time for a clean up.
Pierre,
I think I have a posting with a few links waiting for moderation?
Looks like it’s heating up.
No, not outside. Under Mann’s arse.
http://noconsensus.wordpress.com/2011/01/06/a-half-million-dollar-coverup-and-going/
Snow in Hawaii, don’t you love Mother Nature
http://stevengoddard.wordpress.com/2011/01/08/snow-in-hawaii/
Ironic dilemma:
Rudolf Steiner, founder of antroposophism and biodynamic agriculture (the first “green” ecological kind of farming in Germany) believed that demons live in fluorescent lights:
“Students in Waldorf schools are taught, for example, that good spirits live inside of candles and demons live inside of fluorescent light bulbs”
http://www.waldorfcritics.org/active/articles/Staudenmaier.html
Second source, German:
http://www.esowatch.com/ge/index.php?title=Waldorfp%C3%A4dagogik
Will the antroposophists now become Eurosceptics? The EU wants them to host demons in their bedroom!
Saturday 8th January 2011
Kizimen Volcano, Kamchatka
Eruptions continue at Kizimen volcano, Kamchatka with explosions and pyroclastic flows. Seismic activity is high, with volcanic tremor recorded. A hotspot was present over the volcano during the past week, which indicates a probable lava flow. On 1st January an ash plume extended 500 km SSW of the volcano and ashfall was recorded at Petropavlovsk-Kamchatsky, Yelizovo, Paratunka, Nalychevo and all Southern Kamchatka. On 5th January ash emissions extended over 500 km ENE of the volcano and ashfall was recorded in the Komandorsky Islands. On 5th December 2010 ash emissions reached a distance of 838 km NE of the volcano.
http://www.volcanolive.com/news.html
http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/NaturalHazards/view.php?id=48317
Kizimen volcano. Again, a high latitude volcano. Should have little affect on temperature. It’s the big low latitude volcanoes that generate the most cooling.
Warmists always argue the way they like to. When the arctic melts, it’s because soot, black carbon or volcanic dust increases the albedo of the ice, leading to terrible positive feedback.
When the arctic stubbornly refuses to melt even though volcanoes erupted, then it’s just a silly old volcano in the Northern latitudes that can’t do a thing.
Better picture Kizimen Volcano
http://www.ouramazingplanet.com/kizimen-plume-kamchatka-peninsula-0950/
Vietnam, long spells of biting cold.
Vietnam of all places!
http://tomnelson.blogspot.com/2011/01/vietnam-long-spells-of-biting-cold.html
Here’s the 5 day forecast for Hanoi.
http://www.wunderground.com/cgi-bin/findweather/getForecast?query=Hanoi,%20Viet%20Nam&wuSelect=WEATHER
And the monthly averages for Hanoi…
http://www.weather.com/outlook/travel/vacationplanner/vacationclimatology/monthly/VMXX0006
I’m not seeing anything that unusual about this story.
This map is impossible!
http://stevengoddard.wordpress.com/2011/01/09/this-map-is-impossible/
After the Arizona tragedy, left-winger Andy Revkin finds a lesson for us: Don’t criticize a warmist politician, or you’ll feel extra-bad if some nut subsequently shoots that politician?
http://tomnelson.blogspot.com/2011/01/after-arizona-tragedy-left-winger-andy.html
Where is all the cold air coming from?
http://stevengoddard.wordpress.com/2011/01/09/where-is-all-the-cold-air-coming-from/
Rob,
I’ve found this message from a Vietnam site:
http://tuoitrenews.vn/cmlink/tuoitrenews/society/cold-weather-forecast-for-northern-vietnam-1.18303
UN’s eco war on humanity
http://www.twawki.com/?p=10450
How can climate scientists spend so much money?
http://climatequotes.com/2011/01/08/how-can-climate-scientists-spend-so-much-money/
They launch these things called satellites.
They fly to exotic locations to have a few Margeritas while pondering the installation of a global green elite eco warrior class.
http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/jamesdelingpole/100070697/monbiot-jumps-the-shark-and-other-stories/
2010 warmest on record.
http://scienceandpublicpolicy.org/images/stories/papers/originals/2010_warmest_on_record.pdf
Rob, did you read the publication?
The sats are in the NASA/NOAA budget.
What wonders me is that the NSF spends more on public promotion of new findings and climate change education than it does on atmospheric research.
We also see the return of old chewed out cows like ocean acidification.
I will do a little digging in order to get some more insights.
Rob, are you familiar with the work of Svensmark?
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2009/09/10/svensmark-global-warming-stopped-and-a-cooling-is-beginning-enjoy-global-warming-while-it-lasts/
Rob Honeycutt
8. Januar 2011 at 23:21 | Permalink | Reply
Not true?
The temperature increase for the period 1978-1998 has not been caused by man made CO2.
It was caused by natural variation of our sun, the ocean cycles and the 1998 El Ninjo. That’s it.
There is absolutely NO empirical evidence that CO2 drives temperatures
let alone man made CO2 which represent a relative insignificant part of the total CO2 budget. In fact there is no evidence at al for a connection between temperature change and CO2.
James Hanson made a bet on a horse called Man Made Global Warming
and it’s dead.
‘The temperature increase for the period 1978-1998 has not been caused by man made CO2. It was caused by natural variation of our sun, the ocean cycles and the 1998 El Ninjo.’
Indeed.
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2011/01/10/can-most-of-the-rise-in-the-satellite-era-surface-temperatures-be-explained-without-anthropogenic-greenhouse-gases/
From Joe Bastardi:
========================================
SATURDAY EVENING JAN 8
Winter releases its icy grip.. no surprise in the north, but elsewhere, updates are needed.
Now that winter is breaking, which is no surprise across the north, the question is what should bring it back? The extreme cold that I think is a sign of things to come more frequently in the coming years is now focusing its fury on eastern Asia and for the next 10-15 days in North America. The relaxation of the pattern here though begs the question, does it ever return. Given what I am seeing, I dont think so. For the north, that is not a big deal. But for the areas over the continent where I was confident that the cold would return as strong, it is a big change.
The core of blocking has shifted west, with one center going back over Siberia and the other into northern and central Canada. This allows more troughines over the northeast atlantic, and the development of the positive NAO. This means the warming touted for the northwest is now getting established in the areas that were very cold and in
areas that have only had minimal cold this winter.
So is it over?
Raed more here: http://www.accuweather.com/world-bastardi-europe-blog.asp?partner=accuweather
Does anyone have the latest status of the Landscheidt Grand Minimum generating this extended La Nina weather? Can we expect next winter’s severe weather anomalies to be as bad or even worse? How might it affect spring’s planting and summer’s crop production? The answers to these questions will go a long way toward helping us know where food prices are headed later this year. They’re already not looking good.