That’s Joe Bastardi’s advice. But some out there are sure the warming is going to continue no matter what. “Just look at the models!”, they keep saying. Problem is, models are not data from observation, instead they are scenarios of data that might be measured in the future.
The start of this decade certainly isn’t paying attention to the models, as Joe Bastardi explains in his latest video here.
The 9-month ENSO lag is going to put 2011 a long way away from “one of the warmest years”. These “warmest” years are about to disappear for awhile as the PDO goes into its cool side. Note what Joe said:
Unfortunately, this La Nina shows no signs of stopping, and is going to stay down there for quite awhile.”
That’s not what the models were projecting 6 months ago. Seems like the activity that modellers spend the most time working on after making models, is revising them. Here’s what THE MODELS projected 6 months ago:
And here’s what THE MODELS are now projecting:
Note the huge range! There’s gonna be a whole lot of revising going on in the months ahead.
Next, all you need to do is to look at the following chart to see where we’re headed on a decadal scale. The warm phase is behind us and we are now starting a cool phase – that means more La Ninas in the works, which means cooler global temps ahead.
Many out there are gonna continue banging their heads against the wall insisting that the warming will defy PDO gravity and the cycles, and continue in the years ahead. Nothing we say will change their minds. That’s why I say, let’s just let the events unfold, and we’ll see who’s right soon enough.
This coming decade is going to be a cooler one – all because of natural cycles – and that’s why I’m betting on a cooler decade. The big climate bet is out there, and the next 10 years very very likely will answer the big climate question. You can join the bet too. Best of all, no matter who wins, it’s for charity.
Winning this bet may end up being as easy as taking candy away from a baby. We’ll know soon enough.
And finally, my advice to you warmests who are in it for politics – milk the last decade being the warmest all you can, while you can – because it’s about to get doused with lots of cold water.