Awhile back I did a story on Anders Levermann of the über-alarmist Potsdam Institute For Climate Impact Research (PIK), and reader Arnd B brought my attention to an article called: Our systems are especially vulnerable, which appeared in the online Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung (FAZ) in late December.
Levermann makes a number of interesting comments that provide insight on how the PIK views climate. Unfortunately, all his predictions are based on models, and ignore real-life observations.
Global warming could enhance cold weather
Levermann starts off saying the bitter cold and snow in Germany last month is a sure sign of “how out-of-whack the climate system is.” Levermann serves up the “science” that supports it:
The current cold weather in Europe is everything but evidence against climate change, rather it could even be enhanced by global warming. Colleagues have discovered the mechanism for this: Through the ice melt in the Kara Sea, high pressure zones can form, which then divert the Eurasian winds and lead to cold temperatures in Europe.”
It takes a real climate scientist to make such a profound discovery, and that with no data to back it up. Not only that, Levermann adds:
The more and faster we emit greenhouse gases, the more our climate gets knocked out of whack.”
At this point, I have to ask myself: “Just how gullible must the average FAZ reader be to take this seriously?
Extreme weather events prove manmade climate change
And as usual Levermann goes down the laundry list of last year’s weather events…floods in Pakistan, heat wave in Russia, mudslides in Brazil, etc., etc. and claims this is evidence supporting the man-made global warming link, and that it had all been predicted by models. Yet, Levermann forgets to mention that the accumulated cyclone energy (ACE) was near a record low last year, and that temperatures have not risen over the last decade – something his models have missed. Still he insists:
It’s now practically sure that in a rapidly warming world we have to expect more and stronger extreme events.”
PIK models can now see to the year 2200
Keep in mind that Anders Levermann is a lead author for the next IPCC Report on the subject of sea levels. The next report will deliver the latest “projections” based on various CO2 output scenarios. So where does Levermann say the globe is headed?
What we can already say, based on our latest studies, is: We currently find ourselves on the warmest possible future trajectory […] The temperature projection shows a warming of more than eight degrees Celsius in the year 2200.”
Unfortunately for Levermann, there hasn’t been any warming in a decade, as the following HadCrut chart shows:
Remember that he is a lead author on sea ice for the upcoming IPCC 5th assessment report. What kind of sea level projection do you think he’ll concoct with 8°C of warming? Expect the 5th assessment report to be worse in scientific quality than the 4th report of 2007. Sci-fi sequels tend to get worse and worse as they are taken over by B-rated directors.
Ignoring real world observation and data, Levermann stares deeper into his crystal ball and sees only horrors. He wonders if man will be able to adapt to these rapidly changing climate conditions (the ones in his crystal ball). What are the limits of human adaptability, he asks? 4°C? 6°C?
Warming 50 times faster than the warming that ended the ice age
Claiming that his crystal ball sees 8°C of warming over the next 190 years, he says that this 4°C rise per century will be unprecedented. Levermann says the difference between an optimum and an ice age is about 5°C, and that it took 5000 years for the earth to make the 5°C climb out of the last ice age:
The transition from ice age to warm period lasted a good five thousand years. When man continues to emit greenhouse gases unabated, then we will reach the same warming 50 times faster than in the past.”
That’s assuming his models are correct. Looking at the above HadCrut chart, there has been no warming. And Levermann doesn’t mention that most of the temperature rise ending the last ice age took place in about 1000 years, and the temperature difference was more than 5°C. It was closer to 8°C. So he’s fudging there quite a bit.
He also ignores the huge temperature swings of up to 6°C which occurred in just a matter of a few decades during the Younger Dryas – all naturally.
Of course, Levermann doesn’t forget to play emotion-card Africa, and predicts dire scenarios for the poor continent.
It is probable that in such a situation, countries like Bangladesh and parts of Africa will have become uninhabitable. Whether the drinking water supply collapses because of drought, or sea water claiming the land, or because agriculture becoming impossible. Even without the extreme events, the United Nations estimates that the number of climate refugees will reach 90 million if the sea level rises 1 meter.
Here he ignores studies that show the African Sahara is shrinking and getting more desperately needed rainfall during this modern warm period. And he ignores that sea levels have decelerated over the last 5 years. And even if the sea level did rise 1 meter, something that only the most fanatic among us predict, it would not happen overnight. Most humans just don’t have the habit of standing still for 100 years and watching the water rise around them.
Finally, Levermann ends by saying:
The wall that we are racing towards is hidden in fog, but it is there!
At PIK it’s: If you can’t see it, then it’s proof it’s there. Just believe us.