Meteorologist Dr Karsten Brandt’s website donnerwetter.de gives his Central European seasonal forecast for the fall and looks ahead into the winter.
The good news is that autumn may turn out to be warm and pleasant for Central Europe. The bad news is that there’s a good chance the winter will be cold.
The current long-term prognoses provide a preliminary look into the 2011-2012 winter. For those of you who were hoping for a mild winter after the last snowy and cold winters, which brought traffic chaos and shortages of road salt, you’ll probably end up disappointed: At the moment the indications show that there is going to be a powerful cold phase in the Winter of 2011/2012. At least one, and probably even 2 months are going to be icy.”
Cold winters “due to global warming”
Now for you AGW skeptics out there, don’t you dare go out saying that a cold Central European winter is a sign of cooling. To the contrary according to new models out of Potsdam, cold winters are a sure sign of global warming and man-made climate change, just as this is the case with hot weather. Yes the cold fits right in with the global warming picture – the models say so.
According to Vladimir Petoukhov last year of the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research in Potsdam, Germany:
Our results imply that several recent severe winters do not conflict the global warming picture but rather supplement it, being in qualitative agreement with the simulated large‐scale atmospheric circulation realignment.”
Here he is not just talking about Central Europe, but the northern hemisphere in general.
Our simulations with the ECHAM5 general circulation model demonstrate that lower‐troposphere heating over the B‐K seas in the Eastern Arctic caused by the sea ice reduction may result in strong anticyclonic anomaly over the Polar Ocean and anomalous easterly advection over northern continents. This causes a continental‐scale winter cooling reaching −1.5°C, with more than 3 times increased probability of cold winter extremes over large areas including Europe.”
This is all getting quite confused. Global warming causes colder winters. Warmer ocean waters cause more cyclones, But if the warmer ocean waters are in the Arctic then they are actually “anti-cyclonic”…which means less storms. If all that doesn’t make sense, well that’s because nonsense, confusion and psychosis are also traced back to AGW. A recent study said so.
One thing is certain: Natural climate change is causing lots of silly science.