IPCC 2007 Forecasts For Warm European Winters Are Completely Wrong

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IPCC Forecasts For Warm Winters Are Completely Wrong
By Matti Vooro

The headline on recent news clipping reads Toll from Europe Freeze tops 220see here and here. Reading news clips about the current weather in Europe and Asia and then comparing that to what IPCC said in its 2007 report about what Europeans should expect for future winter weather is as if the IPCC was predicting the climate for another planet.

Fig. 1: European winter temperature deviations from the 1961 – 1990 base for the years 1998-2010. Blue = Europe winter temp, black line = linear trend.

The latest death count is over 300 now. You just cannot be this far off in your forecasts and claim that this is based on any credible climate science supported by most climate scientists. If it is supported by most climate scientists, then we have serious science credibility problems here for Europe.

Here is what the IPCC predicted earlier (emphasis added):

Assessments of projected climate change for Europe:

Annual mean temperatures in Europe are likely to increase more than the global mean. The warming in northern Europe is likely to be largest in winter and that in the Mediterranean area largest in summer. The lowest winter temperatures are likely to increase more than average winter temperature in northern Europe, and the highest summer temperatures are likely to increase more than average summer temperature in southern and central Europe.

Annual precipitation is very likely to increase in most of northern Europe and decrease in most of the Mediterranean area. In central Europe, precipitation is likely to increase in winter but decrease in summer. Extremes of daily
precipitation are very likely to increase in northern Europe. The annual number of precipitation days is very likely to decrease in the Mediterranean area. The risk of summer drought is likely to increase in central Europe and in the Mediterranean area.

Confidence in future changes in windiness is relatively low, but it seems more likely than not that there will be an increase in average and extreme wind speeds in northern Europe.

The duration of the snow season is very likely to shorten in all of Europe, and snow depth is likely to decrease in at least most of Europe.”

This is now the fourth of such cold winters for Europe depending on the individual country.  Europe’s and Berlin‘s winter temperatures show a linear decline since 1998 (See Figure 1) and more seriously with very cold winters since after 2007 and 2008, See the two charts at the bottom of this article.

Other scientists have noted that Northern Europe and Asia have had cooling winters since 1988 or for two decades now as noted below. So this is not just a new development but that the cooling has been coming now for a decade or more. So how could IPCC be so wrong only a few years ago?

A recent technical paper called Arctic warming, increasing snow cover and widespread boreal winter cooling, Judah L Cohen1 et al:

Record cold snaps and heavy snowfall events across the United States, Europe and East Asia garnered much public attention during the winters of 2009/10 and 2010/11 (Blunden et al 2011, Cohen et al2010). Cohen et al (2009) argued that the occurrence of more severe NH winter weather is a two-decade-long trend starting around 1988.”

So it is heartening to read just recently in the news that some German mainstream media have finally seen the light and have exposed the IPCC science as being flawed and no longer credible for planning our future and are beginning to ask the type of questions that should have been asked all along. It is unfortunate that hundreds of people had to die before we start doing proper planning for the colder winters that may lie ahead.

Figure 2: Berlin mean winter temperatures 1998 – 2011.

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7 responses to “IPCC 2007 Forecasts For Warm European Winters Are Completely Wrong”

  1. matti

    I looked at European and some Asian winter temperatures as far back as 1988 as the author Judah Cohen above suggests and found his observations to be correct , namely that there is some decline . They certainly have not been going up [except some isolated years.] I did not do Northern Europe in isolation as Cohen suggests. Overall European winter temperatures do show a linear slight decline as shown by the Excel linear calculations . A look at Moscow , Beijing , Berlin showed a simiar slight downward decline in winter temperatures

  2. oeman50

    Come now, we all know that the cold temperatures in Europe are due to the big melting of the artic ocean ice that exposes the cold water to the air. So if you look at a map of the extent of arctic ice, you will see that it is completely ice free……wait a minute, maybe it’s not. If you check this link,

    http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/plots/icecover/icecover_current.png

    you will find that it’s running at about 11 million sq. km.

    And I guess cold Arctic waters are also responsible for the warm temperatures this winter in the US. Does anyone have an Occam’s razor? I need a shave……

  3. matti
  4. matti

    NASA IN 1999
    WINTER IN NORTHERN HEMISPHERE WILL CONTINUE TO WARM

    Why are winters warming up so much faster over Northern Hemisphere continents than over the rest of the globe? A new study by NASA researchers in the June 3 issue of the journal Nature is the first to link the well-documented large degree of North America and Eurasia winter warming and the associated wind changes to rising greenhouse gas levels in the atmosphere.
    http://www.giss.nasa.gov/research/news/19990602/

    It appears that not only did IPCC get it wrong but so did NASA

    1. Ed Caryl

      If all you have is a hammer (ie. a climate model), everything looks like a nail (CO2). Especially if your model knows nothing of natural cycles.

    2. DirkH

      They have not only been wrong, they have been very stubbornly wrong. They practically refuse any help one offers. Ferenc Miskolczi was working for NASA when he developed his theory.

      I have learned from this; I have learned that our societies in the West are as gullible and as susceptible to propaganda and mistaken beliefs as any superstitious polytheistic culture from thousands of years ago.

  5. matti

    Dirk H

    I realized some time ago not to trust the figures and opinions presented by so the called global warming experts and I try wherever possible to crunch my own numbers and fact check the figures . As we have seen on previous Pierre’s blog posts ,politics makes people adjust their findings to suit preselected agenda s. Scientific truth is the first casulty when people’s income or their very jobs are at risk.

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