Veteran meteorologist Klaus-Eckart Puls made a presentation on sea level at the 4th climate conference in Munich at the end of last year. The data are clear: sea level rise is slowing down.
Here are the data Puls presents:
0:35 – Not everyone is convinced sea levels will rise quickly. Qatar just built a stadium on a man-made island.
1:30 – Sea level is complex and ranges on the planet from 110 meters below and 85 meters above the average due to gravitational variations. Geophysics is the main factor in sea level, and not climate. From all the physical factors, the talk in the media is only about the relatively minor climate component.
3:40 – Global mean trend from 60°N to 60°S is 2.8 mm. (Topex, Jason 1 and Jason 2, 1993 – 2010).
4:20 – 10,000 years ago the sea level was over 100m lower than today.
5:00 – The North German sea level has risen 1.35 m over the last 400 years, i.e. 35 cm per century. But from 1900 to 2000 it rose only 25 cm – a slowdown even though CO2 and temperature increased.
5:50 – It’s not the climate that’s a catastrophe – it’s the media.
6:40 – The sea level at the North German bight measured by 14 tide gauges shows a deceleration in sea level rise, 1843-2008. German authorities “see no signs of any climatic related sea level acceleration”.
8:30 – International tide gauges also show: No acceleration in sea level rise. In fact tide gauges show a deceleration. Puls asked the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research for an answer, but they have yet to reply.
9:00 – EUMETSAT shows a deceleration over the last few years.
9:30 – “The measured data show us completely different results from the models, and that for 20 years.”
9:40 – The last two years show a distinct sea level drop.
10:30 – Envisat ESA satellite also shows a clear sea level drop since 2009.
11:10 – Puls compares tide gauge data (1.7 mm / year) and satellite measurements (3.27 mm / year). Scientists are baffled by the disagreement. Puls says, “It is obviously a measurement system problem.” Simon Holgate: “It is improbable that the sea level rise accelerated in the same year satellites began to operate.”
12:30 – John Church: It is unclear if there has been an acceleration since 1993.
12:55 – Tuvalu 1992 – 2009 data show that variations are tied to the Southern Oscillation. Moreover, Tuvalu is located on a tectonic fault and measured sea level changes there are due to tectonics, and not climate change.
16:00 – Quotes Mörner: “A 2°C warming of the upper 100 meters of the ocean would lead to only a 35 mm rise”. Thermal expansion of the ocean is completely exaggerated. It would take thousands of years to do that because to warm 1 meter of water 1°C, you need to cool 3000 meters of air 1°C.
17.20 – Quotes Trenberth: “No ocean temperature increase in the last 10 years. Moreover there seems to be a slight cooling”. Clearly if there is no ocean warming, then there can be no thermal expansion.
19:15 – Quotes Hans von Storch: “A statistical relationship between air temperature and change in sea level cannot be postulated.”
20:00 – Puls reminds us that there are still some journalists who keep saying the North Pole is melting and so the sea level is rising.
20:30 – The Antarctic is getting colder, and sea ice extent is growing. So is the thickness.
20:56 – Quotes the Alfred Wegener Institute (AWI), “A warmer climate in the Antarctic could however lead to more snowfall. The Antarctic ice sheet would tend to thicken rather than melt in the event of warming.”
21:50 – Quotes Prof. Dr. Heinz Miller of the AWI. “According to our calculated scenarios, we come to the conclusion that changes in the huge ice mass cannot contribute to sea level rise.”
22:20 – The AWI also said: “Although Greenland will likely lose ice mass, the loss of mass resulting from the melting in Greenland will be compensated by an ice gain in Antarctica.” No wonder the IPCC is continuously revised its sea level projections downwards.
23-20: Rahmstorf’s projection of 1.40 meters sea level rise by 2100 has nothing to do with reality.
23:40 – The newest panic is ocean acidification. Puls concludes: “Ocean acidification is an artifact!”
25:00 – Shows slides(in English of quotes by Nils-Axel Mörner.
27:00 – Puls concludes: “There is not going to be any acceleration of sea level”.
7 responses to “Klaus-Eckart Puls: Sea Level Rise Is Slowing Down – “There’s Going To Be No Acceleration””
Noteworthy with regard to 19:15: von Storch is a mathematician by education and has later entered climate science. He knows his statistics and has published a book, maybe to educate Michael Mann, “Statistical Analysis in Climate Research “, 2002. He’s a lukewarmer. If he can’t find a statistical connection it is not for a lack of trying. I’m not a fan of von Storch as he is also a Post Normal Science proponent, but I consider him honest.
Meanwhile Piers reports on sun entering a ‘muddled’ magnetic state:
“The Sun’s magnetic field is getting into a muddle as one half of it changes out of step with the other and this muddled behavior is likely to become very marked in MAY.
“This strange behavior was pointed out by Japanese researchers from the National Astronomical Observatory of Japan and the Riken research foundation* who say this was the sort of behavior which probably took place during low periods of solar activity in the past** and which drove the world into a cold state of longer winters, cold Spring months and lousy summers.
“At the same time independent observers have noticed an increase in Little Ice Age type (Maunder-Dalton type) weather events and circulation patterns around the world such as more extreme hailstorms and cyclonic cold weather in Britain and Ireland with the Jet stream shifted well south***.
I wonder if it will be true 😉
This all makes good sense. I’ve often made the argument based on simple observation from a local area. Namely, a few thousand years ago there was glacial ice pushing into what is now called the Strait of Juan de Fuca with ice well below what is now sea level. The Puget Sound area (Seattle+) was filled with ice and depressed by the weight. Conditions changed and that ice melted. Remaining ice is at higher elevations and/or higher latitudes. Greenland and Antarctica fit this description. So currently there is less ice and it is in places where it is more difficult to melt.
“10:30 – Envisat ESA satellite also shows a clear sea level drop since 2009.”
Well it did until recently. Amazing just how fast the sea level can rise overnight.
So much for KEVIN COSNERS putrid movie WATERWORLD where he swims around looking like total baffoon
“5:00 – The North German sea level has risen 1.35 m over the last 400 years, i.e. 35 cm per century. But from 1900 to 2000 it rose only 25 cm – a slowdown even though CO2 and temperature increased.”
Chao, Yu, and Li (Science, 11th April 2008) corrected all published sea level data for water held in storage by all reservoirs built since 1900. When these corrections were applied the sea level curve for the last 80 years became linear. Its slope was 2.46 millimeters per year. That is 24.6 cm per century.