Cornelis De Jager of the Royal Netherlands Institute for Sea Research and Silvia Duhau of the Departamento de Física, Facultad de Ingenieria, Universidad de Buenos Aires have published a new paper in the Journal of Space Weather and Space Climate titled: Sudden transitions and grand variations in the solar dynamo, past and future.
I’m not sure if other bloggers have written about this. If so, here it is again. The paper forecasts solar activity for the current Solar cycle 24, which they expect will peak in May, 2013 with a maximum sunspot number Rmax of 62 ± 12.
More importantly, the authors write (emphasis added):
The subsequent analysis, based on a phase diagram, which is a diagram showing the relation between maximum sunspot numbers and minimum geomagnetic aa index values leads to the conclusion that a new Grand Episode in solar activity has started in 2008.”
…we predict that this Grand Episode will be of the Regular Oscillations type, which is the kind of oscillations that also occurred between 1724 and 1924. Previous expectations of a Grand (Maunder-type) Minimum of solar activity cannot be supported. We stress the significance of the Hallstatt periodicity for determining the character of the forthcoming Grand Episodes. No Grand Minimum is expected to occur during the millennium that has just started.”
That of course is good news, as the world can ill-afford climate conditions like the ones we saw during the Maunder Minimum – especially with governments racing to prepare for the exact opposite.
The full paper is available here.
12 responses to “Scientists Say A Grand Episode In Solar Activity Started in 2008 – But No Support For A Grand (Maunder-Type) Minimum”
Yes, Marcel Crok on http://www.staatvanhetklimaat.nl/ on June 28 th.
In Dutch: De Jager: geen groot minimum in het verschiet
Direct link to the article:
Great. Now we have it English, too.
“…as the world can ill-afford climate conditions like the ones we saw during the Maunder Minimum – especially with governments racing to prepare for the exact opposite.”
I gotta be a little un-alarmist here. If need be we can quickly expand our electricity generation; whether by coal, gas or nuclear – all it takes is relaxation of regulations. Look at China; they’re ramping up generation like crazy. We could do the same if we needed to. The green political religion is a cult that we can afford. If real hardship strikes we’ll abandon it in a day and won’t look back for a generation.
Plus, we have the advantage of abundant global transportation – so we can buy food on the world market if necessary; and the elevated CO2 level makes agriculture more productive. And we can modify crops faster than any generation before us due to GM and quasi-GM (rebuilding a GM’ed prototype crop by combining seeds from the library with conventional breeding techniques and genetic analysis of the offspring to enable fast selection – this technique sidesteps the major disadvantage of traditional GM; the introduction of an antibiotics resistance gene).
So even if the LIA returned I wouldn’t be worried. Only a return of full scale glaciation would be a problem.
Agreed, with all of that, a glaciation – that would mean rather a large problem and an end of our world scenario.
Though, the thing is Dirk, if the sun does go ‘cold’ and at the same moment – a major volcanic event were to happen [Katla?] – then we [humankind] would be severely tested.
Praise be, for natural warming!
In a discussion of curent and expected low solar activity at WUWT (http://wattsupwiththat.com/2012/07/04/another-regime-change-indication-this-time-in-solar-data/ ), Leif Svalgard (July 4, 2012 at 7:53 am ), who is fairly conservative in his opinions, notes the following:
“As the low solar activity predicted by us has come to pass, a small cottage industry [with several ‘peer reviewed’ papers – for what they are worth] has sprung up about a possible coming Maunder minimum. There is little doubt that at some time in the future a new Grand minimum will be coming our way. Whether it will happen real soon is anybody’s guess. At a recent international workshop that I convened this question was central. You can find most of the discussion chronicled in the presentations here: http://ssnworkshop.wikia.com/wiki/1st_ISSI_Workshop”
Hopefully, we will not go into another LIA anytime soon…
Who is right? we’ll just have to wait to find out.
“No Grand Minimum is expected to occur during the millennium that has just started.”
And they know this how????
Leifs statemnten is an honest one.
“There is little doubt that at some time in the future a new Grand minimum will be coming our way. Whether it will happen real soon is anybody’s guess.”
Doe anyone claim to know what caused the Maunder minimum. I remember reading a statement from lief, no one really knows what a sunspot is.
My apologies—I mispelled Leif Svalgaard’s name as “Svalgard”in my above comment.
This paper is way way out. Dr H Abdussamatov director of Polkovo Observatory St Petersburg in his latest paper (Applied Physics research vol 4 February 2012 http://www.ccsenet.org)predicts a cooling earth using the two century solar cycle which governs the solar physics of the sun. He has predicted that based on the decrease of bicentennial luminosity on the basis of the observed accelerating drop in both the 11 year cycle and the bicentennial component of the total solar irradiance(TSI) which is not compensated by a decrease in the emission to space of the earth thermal energythere will be in 2014 the start of the next cycle of deep cooling leading to a Little Ice Age by 2055(+/- 11 years). this will last well into the 22nd century. British university research agrees with this. (Terri Jackson founder of the energy Group at Institute of Physics London. see also http://Scientificqa.blogspot.com
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This paper is flat out wrong. If one goes to the LAYMAN SUNSPOT SITE, one will find a reliable prediction on what to expect from the sun going forward. They are calling for a Grand Minimum, based on the angular momentum theory. I believe this is correct. Past history supports what they are predicitng.