Michael Mann recently spewed another one of his patented fraudulent statements, the latest on storm frequency.
Well, here’s Dr. Stan Goldenberg from the Hurricane Centre in Florida in 2008. Recall that we haven’t seen much hurricane activity since!
At the 7.40 mark:
I do not know of any scientist yet, at the Hurricane Center, at the Hurricane Research Division, who believes that the recent activity is from AGW. They just don’t because they know the data.”
And here’s what Goldenberg said on opportunist scientists who claimed there was a connection, and the reaction at the Hurricane Center (8:17): “It was ludicrous! They were shocked at this. Nobody who really knew this data could believe it!”
Goldenberg ended his presentation with: “No trend anywhere that Hurricanes will increase with higher temperatures.”
This is a video Dr. Mann needs to go back and watch – just so that he realizes what a complete oddball he is on the subject. More proof that the alarmists are nothing but kooks and crackpots.
Hat-tip: http://www.kalte-sonne.de/?p=4947
Here is what Joe Bastardi says about Dr. Mann’s idiotic comments:
Joe Bastardi Analyzes Michael Mann’s Hurricane Claim
http://stevengoddard.wordpress.com/2012/08/18/joe-bastardi-analyzes-michael-manns-hurricane-claim/#comment-118325
Imagine a mere meteorologist convincingly debunk a….. he he published scientist.
First, the temperatures are not higher. They are not outside the bounds of natural variability.
THEN, no increased trend in hurricane frequency or strength.
When the whole thing is a crock, all parts of it are the shattered pieces of the crock!
Following along the “temperatures are not higher” thought: Going back a few years the idea was that the world would get hotter and things would change – graphs showed model output to 2100, some less, say to 2060. This future tense aspect seems to have gotten lost in the conversation. Things that were supposed to happen “soon” are said to be happening now. As the temperature is not higher, the switch to talking about weather events is needed to perpetuate the scam. Weather events do happen as part of the natural variability, so all a CAGW-er needs to do is scream loudly about the former and hope no one notices the latter. When nature is so uncooperative, they just make stuff up.
For me the most interesting line at 08:40 – What did climate models show for increase in temperatures – increasing vertical shear, decreasing the number of hurricanes.
Another one for the todo list of the climate model fixing departments.
I liked that one, too. Obviously they are trying to have it every way. If they were clever, they would say that the lack of hurricanes proves global warming. But that would be good news.
Exactly. They can’t warn of an imminent catastrophe that has as its most significant consequence the absence of hurricane damages. Run for the hills – the hurricanes have stopped! How does that sound? Doesn’t work.
Mann knows nothing. Five minutes of Googling found this.
https://ams.confex.com/ams/pdfpapers/169236.pdf
Check figure 4. Compare with the ice core temperature record. Hurricanes increase during cool periods, not warm times.
But of course Mann denies that there were any warm periods.
http://www.ipcc.ch/publications_and_data/ar4/wg1/en/ch10s10-es-13-tropical-cyclones.html
Tropical Cyclones (Hurricanes and Typhoons) Results from embedded high-resolution models and global models, ranging in grid spacing from 100 km to 9 km, project a likely increase of peak wind intensities and notably, where analysed, increased near-storm precipitation in future tropical cyclones. Most recent published modelling studies investigating tropical storm frequency simulate a decrease in the overall number of storms, though there is less confidence in these projections and in the projected decrease of relatively weak storms in most basins, with an increase in the numbers of the most intense tropical cyclones.
Mid-latitude Storms Model projections show fewer mid-latitude storms averaged over each hemisphere, associated with the poleward shift of the storm tracks that is particularly notable in the Southern Hemisphere, with lower central pressures for these poleward-shifted storms. The increased wind speeds result in more extreme wave heights in those regions.
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The IPCC does not talk about more Hurricanes. Modeling shows less hurricanes.
Could this subject of more predicted hurricanes be a strawman?
James Hansen talks a lot about extreme weather events being a sign of CO2AGW. Take the argument to him.
He has already proven it. Extreme temperatures 3 hsigma occupied .1% of the earths surface in the 1951 to 1980 time frame.
From 2003 to 2011 extreme temperatures at the 3 sigma level has ranged from 3% to 11% of the earth’s surface. 3 sigma is the very hot occurences.
This is strictly with temperature over an area of the earth’s surface. His paper does not go into the individual heat waves. Those are only comments from interviews.
WIth the increased energy content of the earth, extreme weather events have a much higher chance of happening.
Before or after all the GHCN/GISS adjustments?
What do you want to see and what do you not want to see?
Are all adjustments warmer?
Are you a skeptic or a denier?
If you are a true skeptic, you will question both sides looking for the truth.
If you are a denier, you will only accept the infromation that agrees with your idealistic beliefs.
http://www.skepticalscience.com/surface-temperature-measurements-advanced.htm
Independent studies using different software, different methods, and different data sets yield very similar results. The increase in temperatures since 1975 is a consistent feature of all reconstructions. This increase cannot be explained as an artifact of the adjustment process, the decrease in station numbers, or other non-climatological factors.
Back to hurricanes. In the IPCC section on hurricanes, nowhere does it say there will be more hurricanes with global warming.
Again lets address the issue. Is this being put out there then as a strawman?
Develop a false idea that wasn’t true to begin with, and then knock down the oppostion for semething that they didn’t say to begin with.
IPCC doesn’t, but Mann does. That was the original discussion.
http://www.nature.com/news/2009/090812/full/news.2009.821.html
In a separate analysis, the researchers used a statistical model based on modern data from 1851 to 2006 to estimate historical hurricane activity. The researchers modelled the effect of three climate conditions on the yearly formation of hurricanes: sea surface temperatures; the El Niño/Southern Oscillation, a warming of surface waters in the tropical eastern Pacific Ocean; and the North Atlantic Oscillation — a measure of variations in the jet stream across the North Atlantic.
Both analyses show a peak in hurricane activity around 1000 AD, where conditions produced “a perfect storm” of influences on hurricane activity, says Mann.
Mann says that if sea surface temperatures continue to rise as a result of global warming, the world can expect to see more hurricanes. But this increase could be tempered if climate change doesn’t increase the El Niño effect, something that’s debated in current climate-change models. Debate also rages in the hurricane-research community over whether the increase in hurricanes seen over the past decade is accurate or just due to improved techniques in counting the storms.
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Another strawman? A false image projected and then knock it down. Micheal Mann recognizes the effect of El Nino’s on Hurricanes. He is studying past past hurricanes through past sediments.
Do you also question the sources brought to you on this website, or do you believe them at their word?
No, I look for honest experts.
http://policlimate.com/tropical/
“Mann says that if sea surface temperatures continue to rise as a result of global warming, the world can expect to see more hurricanes.”
And then he adds caveats. So, Jeff Green, which is it? Warmists not daring to make even projections anymore?
Just going through the motions and making remotely scary noises. Something COULD happen, or maybe the opposite, run for the hills and pay me tons of money, maybe I can tell you more tomorrow.
Thanks for the laugh.
It’s a study and there is uncertainty. WIth future warming there will be plenty of ocean heat as fuel to strengthen the hurricanes. Its a matter of will there be atmospheric conditions that allow hurricanes to form. La Nina favors Atlantic Hurricanes and El Nino has fewer.
YOu are trying too hard to control the world view. Get a grip.
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