Last week in Potsdam, Germany, the First World Conference on Climate Impact took place.
No matter how many studies come out contradicting the models of catastrophic climate change, the Potsdam and IPCC scientists insist catastrophic warming is a fact and can only be averted by implementing drastic CO2 reduction measures, i.e. transforming society. The catastrophe is just postponed a bit.
In the press conference video above at the 7:19 mark, Connie Hedegaard tells the press concerning the Otto et al paper:
“I was in my home city of Copenhagen last weekend, and there last week some knowledge came out that maaaaybe things are slowing down a bit because, yes, we have past the 400 parts per million mark, but did the temperature really follow suit? And I think the interesting things is that there is something in the nature of man that makes us grasp this so that you immediately find the headlines: “Climate Change is Postponed” or we can wait to do something, you know that sort of headlines. Although if you sort of came down to the details you could see that no,l it just meant that maaaaybe we have a bit more time… .
In other words she is telling everyone not to believe any news suggesting that climate warming has slowed down. Don’t believe the observations, just believe the models.
Schellnhuber was hardly able to hide that he too is puzzled by the 15 years of no warming and the claims of the Otto et al paper. At the 34:08 mark of the video above, a journalist asks Schellnhuber about the temperature stagnation we’ve seen over the last 15 years and the Otto et al paper:
First of all, this was a sort of a Leserbrief, a correspondence to Nature Geoscience, which was done actually by former members of the Potsdam Institute who work at Oxford University. And if you read it carefully, it tells you 2 different things: The first one is the long-term projections of the climate models are confirmed actually. So it means the big picture is intact. The second is, just taking into account what you said, what happened over the last 15 years, since the big El Nino event in 1998 actually. There has been a slowing of global warming at the Earth’s surface, yes, which is very important. Taking that into account, simply the projections, again projections, for the next two, three decades have been revised a little bit to the lower side, actually. So we see no surprise because everybody can see that we didn’t have a steeper rise in global temperature in the last decade as we had in the previous decade. But if you now analyze this, why does it happen? And there has been a number of important scientific papers on that recently, which did not make it to the media, is people had analyzed where does the heat go to? Because if you look at satellite data at the top of the atmosphere, you clearly see we have an excess of energy, more energy going into our planetary system then what is going out. This is the first law of thermodynamics: energy is conserved. So it has to go somewhere. So now obviously most of it is now going into the deeper layers of the ocean. And you have to appreciate that the top three meters of the ocean globally contain as much heat as the entire atmosphere. So things are going deeper down. Then of course you will have a certain slowing down of what is happening at the surface. So what we probably see now is a sort of saturation of deeper ocean layers, …but once the job is done, the surface will warm once again, and even faster actually later on. This is by the way accompanied by, if you look at the data as I did this morning, you had many more La Nina events, that is the cool phase in the Pacific, in the last decade then you had in the previous decade. This is in a sense precisely in a La Nina event the oceans more or less take up heat while in an El Nino event they release heat. So just wait for the next big El Nino and we will have again a boost in global temperature. So again, what does this tell us? It simply tells us that global warming does not happen in a linear way where every year the same amount of warming happens. Nobody was actually expecting that, we always talk about natural variability. So I’m as a physicist not at all surprised and there’s no reason, unfortunately, there’s no reason to call off global warming.”
Unbelievably, Schellnhuber says nobody was really expecting a steady rise (er, except 44 modellers and lots of other scientists), and so is indirectly saying that nobody really expected the models to get the short-term (first 20 years) right.
What Schellnhuber is saying can be summed up as follows: We are not surprised that the short-term (up to 2025) models have been wrong, but we are sure the long-term models are right.
Schellnhuber claims he is not at all surpised by the 15-year absence of warming. Chart source: www.drroyspencer.com.
The only conclusion that one can draw is: If the models up to 2025 are completely wrong, then the long-term models (2100 or 2200) are complete rubbish.
Looking at Roy Spencer’s chart above, the models expected a 0.5° rise from 1998 to 2013 – but we’ve gotten nothing. And the models expect another 0.5°C rise from 2017 to 2022. That too no longer looks tenable given the current ocean and solar cycles.
Schellnhuber’s only option now is to act like he is not surprised about the models getting the first 15 years completely wrong, and to insist the heat will come later, but with more strength.
Haven’t we heard that kind of talk before from slippery investment bankers?