Another nail in the coffin of man-made extreme weather nonsense:
New study from the Geosciences Center Potsdam: There have been 18 flooding phases in upper Austria over the last 7000 years
By Dr. Sebastian Lüning and Prof. Fritz Vahrenholt
(Tanslated, edited by P. Gosselin)
The pattern in society today is clear to see. Whenever a storm hits a region and submerges terrain in water, or if a drought destroys crops, then the one to blame is quickly found: It has got to be man and his debaucherous CO2-spewing lifestyle that is bringing the climate into a state of catastrophic instability. In former times witches and sorcerers were made responsible for meteorological extremes, and they were burned at the town square so that future bad weather could be prevented. Like today, back then no one really cared about scientific arguments.
But here one only needs to look over the scientific literature in order to recognize that storms and weather extremes have always been the case and things really aren’t any different today. Yet another new study has just come out showing this, appearing in the November 2013 edition of the Quaternary Science Reviews, by a team of scientists led by Tina Swierczynski of the Geoforschungszentrum (GFZ) Potsdam. The scientists examined sediment deposits taken from the Austrian Mondsee and they were able to identify the development of flooding phases of rivers in the region caused by heavy rainfalls in the spring and summers. The geological archive goes back more than 7000 years.
In total Tina Swierczynski and her colleagues found 271 flooding events that had occurred during 18 flood-rich phases, each having a duration of 30 – 50 years. The most important of these phases took place during the Neolithic (7100–7050 vyr BP and 6470–4450 vyr BP), the late Bronze Age and the early Iron Age (3300–3250 and 2800–2750 vyr BP), the late Iron Age (2050–2000 vyr BP), throughout the Dark Ages Cold Period (1500–1200 vyr BP), and at the end of the Medieval Warm Period and the Little Ice Age (810–430 vyr BP). The scientists found that summer flood episodes in Lake Mondsee are generally more abundant during the last 1500 years, often coinciding with major advances of Alpine glaciers.
The study provides an historically important context that absolutely needs to be taken into account when assessing modern day flooding events. It is clear that there were always heavy rain phases in pre-industrial times. Therefore it also scientifically doubtful that the flooding events of today can be automatically connected to man-made climate change. Those who allow themselves to be seduced by the hypothesis of man-made climate are seriously under-estimating the potential of the natural fluctuation range of extreme weather occurrences.
15 responses to “German Scientists Show Natural Climate Cycles Dominated Over Last 7000 Years…Blaming Man Is “Witch-Hunting””
Strawman argument: no one claims that there weren’t any heavy rain phases (or any other kind of extreme weather for that matter) in pre-industrial times.
The issue here is not whether or not there were extreme weather events in the past, but if their frequency and intensity today is higher. The study shows that they aren’t.
“The issue here is not whether or not there were extreme weather events in the past, but if their frequency and intensity today is higher. The study shows that they aren’t. ”
It does no such thing!
Nowhere in this paper does it even remotely suggest, let alone conclude, that today’s frequencies and intensities of extreme weather are not higher than in the past. All it establishes is that there were such events in the past (along with its frequencies) at the site studied.
You are making stuff up.
It would appear that you are operating on the theory he’s only read one article on the topic in his lifetime. He’s right and you are wrong. Researches have been counting the number of extreme weather events by class, time and location and you should look it up rather than look silly by posting nonsence.
Merry Christmas and Happy new year.
“no one claims that there weren’t any heavy rain phases (or any other kind of extreme weather for that matter) in pre-industrial times.”
But warmists and warmist media repeatedly and incessantly posit that there is an increase in such events, caused by anthropogenic CO2 emissions. Not a strawman; but an appropriate description of the sorry state our science and media has devolved into.
You too misunderstand what the paper referenced researched and concluded.
As I just pointed out again to Pierre, it does not conclude that past extreme episodes were more numerous than todays’. Heck, it did not even study, let alone compare, present events with those of the past.
All this paper shows is that there were past episodes of weather extremes at Lake Mondsee during the Mid- and Late Holocene, a premise which no ‘warmist’ denies, hence the term Straw man argument I used.
If you want to discuss the ‘warmist’ claim that extreme weather events have increased, the least one should do is use a paper which actually studied just that. There’s plenty to choose from.
I discuss what I like to, Mitchell; in any way I like to, but thanks for the advice.
What a wonderful reply, Dirk.
You misinterpret a scientific paper and when told what this paper is not about you respond with an infantile “I discuss what I like to”.
Now remind me again that you are a skeptic and not a denier…
G Mitchell 21. Dezember 2013 at 14:24 |
Not a strawman; but an appropriate description of the sorry state of YOUR science and media has devolved into.
As I tried to explain to Dirk before, if you want to disprove the premise that extreme weather is increasing globally, the least you should do is use a source article which does just that. There are plenty to choose from.
But this paper is neither about comparing extreme weather frequencies nor on a global level. It just establishes that there were plenty of flood events during the mid- to late Holocene at Lake Wandsee. That might be breaking news to you, it cetainly is not for the scientific community. Hence it is a strawman argument.
It’s your hypothesis, you ‘prove’ it. In science, the scientific community is obligated to advance the null hypothesis, which Mr. Gosselin is properly doing here. Post normal science = post normal nonsense
Here in the us we have had no major hurricane in 8 years. Had the fewest tornados in the past at least 100 years. Also had the fewest acres of land burned by forest fires in the last 50 years. This does not sound like weather is getting worse or more severe to me.
It’s a complete waste of time talking to [-snip] such as G. Mitchell: They are in denial.
[…] https://notrickszone.com/2013/12/21/german-scientists-show-natural-climate-cycles-dominated-over-last… […]
@ G Mitchell
The paper by Swierczynski may indeed not compare to present-day. But there are other publications from the same region that have done this. Have a look at e.g. Glur et al. 2013:
These authors prognose a decrease in floods for the coming decades.