Southern Ocean Cooling Since 1996 … Global Warming Scientists Deny Logic That Cold Causes More Ice!

Why All The Ice In Antarctica?

By Ed Caryl

The recent fate of the MS Akademik Shokalskiy has prompted arguments from the CAGW crowd that the global warming is causing more ice around Antarctica. The problem with this argument is that there has been no warming around Antarctica.

All the trends show cooling, especially in the area where the ship is trapped. The southern ocean is cooling, and has been for a long time, especially since 1996. The latitudes in the vicinity of Commonwealth Bay have been cooling since 1980. There is more ice because Mother Nature is freezing more ice.


Figure 1 is the surface temperatures in the band from 50° south to 70° south.


Figures 2a and 2b are the annual average temperatures at Bases Casey and Dumont D’Urville, the two closest bases in East Antarctica to Commonwealth Bay. Source GISS.

If we look at a annual temperature trend map of the globe covering the last eight years, we see cooling especially at latitudes north and south of 45°, and at the equator.


Figure 3 is the annual temperature trends from November 2005 to October 2013.

Of course, the southern ice has responded to this decreased temperature by increasing, slowly since the low of 1980, but then much faster in the last three years following the local temperatures. See Figure 4:


Figure 4 is the Southern Hemisphere sea ice anomaly chart. Note that the current Southern sea ice is 1.5 Million square kilometers above the 1979 to 2008 mean value, nearly three times the negative anomaly in the Arctic. Source here.

But for whatever peculiar reason, despite all the observations, global warming scientists insist it’s more logical to blame the extra ice on warming!

The warmists never seem to realize that Antarctica can melt only if the temperature rises above freezing there. For all practical purposes, it almost never does rise above freezing. The summer ice only reduces because the wind breaks it up and blows it away into latitudes where the sea is warm enough to melt it.

The air temperatures blowing off the continent rise high enough (to just freezing) so that the ice blowing away is not immediately replaced as it is in the Antarctic winter. Ice flows off the continent not because it is melting, but because the pressure of two-mile-thick ice behind the edges is forcing it to flow. Average air temperatures at bases on the edge of the continent rise to just freezing in January despite 24 hours of daylight. This is why it can snow off-shore at the position of the trapped ship in late December. Rain is an extremely rare event anywhere in Antarctica except the peninsula.

No global warming – it’s over

As one can see from Figure 3, there is no global warming. It’s over. Both poles are now cooling, the tropics are cooling. Ice is increasing at both ends of the earth. Over the last eight years, there were a few isolated pockets of warming, a spot in the North Pacific, the Middle East, north-eastern North America, and off the west coast of Australia. Those spots are constantly shifting, and will soon go away.


15 responses to “Southern Ocean Cooling Since 1996 … Global Warming Scientists Deny Logic That Cold Causes More Ice!”

  1. Ron Foord

    These fallacy’s they drive down our throats must be making someone rich, Its certainly not the house holders or anyone with a power bill.

  2. Tel

    It’s over. Both poles are now cooling, the tropics are cooling. Ice is increasing at both ends of the earth.

    Don’t you know the difference between weather and climate?

    If you see cooling, it must be just weather, so ignore it. Later on when it warms up again, now that’s climate and a good reason to panic.

    1. Casper

      Heh, It’s all hollow words.
      Do you see shifting of the climatic zones? Do you expect that Germany will turn into the tundra/steppe/desert or will be covered by the ice sheet within your life time? You don’t? So the climate change is a bullshit and everything you can see and measure is a WEATHER!

      1. DirkH

        Casper; Tel was being sarcastic.

  3. John F. Hultquist

    Good post. Clear and short. Thanks.

    The CAGW crowd thinks that global warming is.

    Above, I’ve made a few changes to some of the wording in your first sentence. It has been a quarter of a century since the idea of GW burst upon the public. Andrew Revkin did a 20 year review at Dot Earth on June 23, 2008. Hansen’s Senate panel appearance was in 1988.

    Consider that high school seniors, say 18 at the time, are now in their mid-40s. Those that graduated from college with political, social, or general studies majors never understood the science. They simply entered their career paths with the guilt instilled in them for their part in destroying the environment.

    The charts, for Casey and Dumont D’Urville, for which you present average annual temperatures, will appear as strange to the CAGW crowd as the information showing the existence of the Higgs boson. The odd part of all this is that whether ice is growing (or not) at the South Pole (or the North) because of global warming (cooling) does not explain how CO2 is related. Even if they can agree on what is happening, there is still no why? Still, the UN, the EU, and the US want to continue the remaking of how things work. Our leaders are the true Ship of Fools.

  4. Tom Harley

    Just 80 years ago, singlets were the required working clothes by Antarctic expeditioners, in May:

  5. JP

    The headline for Le Monde today is «Les climatosceptiques qui valaient des milliards» (The climate skeptics worth billions). Clearly, the skeptics are winning, despite the virtually complete mainstream media blackout in certain countries. As a result, the backlash is becoming more intense.

    1. DirkH

      Oh. The EU fires the big cannons. Smear piece in biggest French rag, here’s a translation.

      When you catch a lot of flak it means you’re over the target!

  6. Jimbo

    I just wonder how much longer they are going to deny reality? It’s so sad to see. 🙁 No one likes being wrong, but they are wrong and the models have failed. There is no climate crisis (of warming at least), we don’t need to act now, the science is NOT settled and the debate is nearly over. 🙂

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  9. explorboy

    SST in the Southern Ocean has largely declined since 1982 as a recent study by Maheswari, et al (2013) reveals:
    Note the Point Dennison area has experienced very strong cooling.
    I do not recall the expedition website mentioning this.

  10. explorboy

    The jump in sea ice correlates nicely with Bob Tisdales’s Southern Ocean SST graph where a strong drop in SST is noted about 2007.

  11. ES

    One of the main reasons that ice and snow disappear is sublimation, not melting. If you leave ice cubes in your freezer long enough, they will eventfully disappear. It is below 0C so they don’t melt – they turn directly to vapor even without sunlight. Sunlight and higher temperatures makes sublimation occur faster. They say that sea ice starts sublimation at -23C.

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