Geologist Sebastian Lüning: Scientific Evidence Showing Sun/Oceans As Primary Climate Drivers Is ‘Massive, Overwhelming’!

The Germany-based European Institute for Climate and Energy EIKE announces that the 7th International Climate and Energy Conference is taking place at the Steigenberger Hotel in Mannheim, April, 10 2014. The event is being held by EIKE.

The planned speakers include renowned scientists like Richard Lindzen, Henryk Svensmark and Nir Shaviv. Complete program and info here.


Geologist Dr. Sebastian Lüning. Photo:

Also among the distinguished speakers are geologist Dr. Sebastian Lüning (above), co-author of the book “The Neglected Sun” and co-publisher of the German skeptic climate science site Die kalte Sonne.

Recently I had the chance to get some of his insights on the climate issue. First question I asked was why he thought there has been a pause in global warming. He believes the answer is the combination of the downward phase of ocean cycles and lower solar activity, and he expects the plateau or a drop to continue until the 2030s. It is not a surprise that the oceans are now ‘eating heat’, he says.

Lüning then says it’s pretty clear that the global climate of the last 1000 years has been primarily driven by solar activity and ocean cycles and that “the body of evidence supporting this is massive and overwhelming”.

Dr. Lüning has not been very impressed by the IPCC climate models (97% of them have markedly overestimated the projected warming) and I asked him if he thought the models were getting better with time as we keep hearing that they are being “fine-tuned”. Dr. Lüning doesn’t believe so. “They continue to overestimate CO2 and volcanoes and seriously underestimate solar and ocean cycles.” On CO2 climate sensitivity, he thinks a doubling will lead to a temperature increase of only 1.0 to 1.5°C.

I also asked him about energy policy in Germany and the news that an expert commission recently concluded that the German Energiewende has been extremely costly and ineffective and thus if he thought a slowdown in Germany’s renewable energy sector was ahead? He answered: “Yes. Very likely. We cannot risk losing competitiveness altogether. Now is a good moment to correct the direction.”

Finally I asked what message he wished to convey at the EIKE conference:

Study the climate of the past to identify the processes that influence today’s and tomorrow’s climate.”

And with that I’d say you can expect to see an exciting scientific presentation by Dr. Lüning, and from all the other speakers for that matter, at the 7th EIKE Climate Conference in Mannheim next month.


22 responses to “Geologist Sebastian Lüning: Scientific Evidence Showing Sun/Oceans As Primary Climate Drivers Is ‘Massive, Overwhelming’!”

  1. BobW in NC

    Fantastic!!! At last – someone is boldly going after the real core issues!

    “Lüning then says it’s pretty clear that the global climate of the last 1000 years has been primarily driven by solar activity and ocean cycles and that “the body of evidence supporting this is massive and overwhelming”. ”

    Can’t wait to see the response to his presentation!

  2. Dr Norman Page

    Dr Luning is right to suggest that the past is the key to the present.
    There has been no net warming for 16 years and the earth entered a cooling trend in about 2003 which will last for another 20 years and perhaps for hundreds of years beyond that.
    The current weather patterns in the UK and USA are typical of those developed by the more meridional path of the jet stream on a cooling earth. The Fagan book “The Little Ice Age ” is a useful guide from the past to the future. The frequency of these weather patterns, e.g. for the USA the PDO related drought in California and the Polar Vortex excursions to the South will increase as cooling continues.
    The views of the establishment scientists in the USA,Germay and the UK Met office’s publicity in this matter reveals their continued refusal to recognize and admit the total failure of the climate models in the face of the empirical data of the last 15 years. It is time for the climate community to move to another approach based on pattern recognition in the temperature and driver data and also on the recognition of the different frequencies of different regional weather patterns on a cooling ( more meridional jet stream ) and warming (more latitudinal jet stream ) world.
    For forecasts of the coming cooling based on the 60 year (PDO) and the 1000 year quasi-periodicities seen in the temperature data and the neutron count as a proxy for solar activity in general see several posts at.
    For a review of a 3 year update of a 30 year forecast see.
    For an estimate of future NH temperature trends see the latest post at.
    I hope Dr Luning has the time to compare the forecasts in the links given here with his own estimates in time for his presentation.

  3. Robin Pittwood

    Excellent. Wishing Sebastian and the others all the best for an educational and enjoyable conference, bringing some sensible balance to the climate change discussions.

  4. Recovering Lutheran

    Imagine that – the sun and the oceans have something to say about the Earth’s climate!

    But I suppose that that warm-mongers will laugh at the idea of the Sun having an effect on the climate (after all – it is 93 million miles away). And all that talk about the specific heat of water is probably just a sinister denier plot. Real science must bow before the one true god of Settled Science.

    (Seriously off-topic: today in America is Pi Day (3/14). For a mathematician this is practically a religious holy day. I would be taking today off from work, except that the college where I teach is already on spring break. So…Happy Pi Day!)

  5. Chad Wozniak

    Excellent work by Dr. Luning – now, if the AGW religionists will only listen.

    The sad part of this controversy is that it is so OBVIOUS that the Sun and the ocean currents are the drivers of climate, and so OBVIOUS that tiny changes in a tiny trace gas are NOT – all it takes is common sense to see it. But persuading ideologues of the obvious is no easy task.

  6. AJ Virgo is unfortunate that the theory of Catastrophic CO2 Warming became prominent just before Mankind launched the advanced scientific Solar monitoring satellites that have since taught us so much.

    1. DirkH

      There have always been warming/cooling scares, and political entrepreneurs or media to use them.
      Timeline 20th century

  7. John Marshall

    Basically correct, though I would say it is the sun as the primary driver, since it is the energy source, and the ocean/atmosphere interactions as secondary drivers. It is NOT CO2.

  8. Buddy

    Wow….did NOT see that one coming. The sun is one of the primary drivers of climate. WOW. And the oceans also a primary driver of climate……and they “only” take up 71% of the earths surface. Who knew they could be so important?

    Oh wait….I know. Climate scientists.

    I’m glad to have some agreement with the climate deniers for a change:) Now if they (I’m talking to you Pierre:) only would face up to the facts on what CO2 and methane do….we’ll be “good to go.”

    By the way……look at all this warm weather in Germany. YIKKKKKESSSSS… Did you guys take ALL the warm weather this year…..and give us Yankees all the cold weather in the easter 2/3 of the States? Thanks a lot:)

    1. DirkH

      Buffy. Crappy gcms still broken.

      1. Buddy

        Hey Dirt….how goes it pal? Hope you are enjoying your warm winter & spring weather. Looks like Russia has been quite warm as well…..record temps in Moscow:

        And the heat just keeps on coming…..

        Have a great weekend….and keep that smile going…:)


        1. Recovering Lutheran

          But you keep telling us weather is not equal to climate. Have you changed your mind?

        2. DirkH

          “Hey Dirt….how goes it pal? Hope you are enjoying your warm winter & spring weather”

          Splendidly, Buffy; but it’s gotten a little cold for Spring today. Could use more of the mythical warming CO2. Maybe I’ll simply breathe a little heavier; that should do it; oh, and I have turned up my thermostat.

          One question. What country do you want to wreck first with renewable subsidy bankruptcy? The US? You have my blessing in that regard; a little Schadenfreude from the colony. Maybe King Mom Jeans will do that for you? My, how the mighty have fallen; Mr. Four Trillion Debt.

        3. Ed Caryl

          Another thing, Buffy, what is the ideal global temperature? And why? When in the past was it ideal?

  9. John F. Hultquist

    Of interest is the way folks in Germany write dates, thusly: 15. März
    Where I live, yesterday would be written as 3 March, or 3.14.
    Therefore, mathematicians declare it as ∏ Day and consider it a holiday. It is of further interest that when expressed as a percentage, namely 3.14%, one gets a low but reasonable approximation to the concentration of water vapor. Actually, it is believed to average 5,000 ppm. Carbon dioxide is much less important.
    On a clear (low humidity, no clouds) night Earth radiates to space and the ground level temperature drops rapidly. Carbon dioxide does not change in the manner water in the atmosphere does. If CO2 had much effect, clear nights would not get so cold. The effect is also logarithmic, so each additional amount has less effect then the one before it. Further if the ppm of this plant food drops too low (a guess, but below 150 ppm), then green plants die. I’d like a bigger cushion, maybe at 700 I could relax.
    Anyway, hope you had a happy ∏ Day.

  10. Oliver K. Manuel

    FEAR of nuclear annihilation probably drove frightened world leaders to deceive the public and take totalitarian control of mankind in 1945.

    As noted today on ResearchGate, the universe now expands for the same reason –

    1. The Sun exploded and birthed the Solar System five billion years (5 Ga) ago;

    2. Cores of U atoms exploded over Hiroshima on 6 Aug 1945; and

    3. Cores of Pu atoms exploded over Nagasaki on 9 Aug 1945:


    Survival of the human species was threatened by two FALSEHOODS inserted into textbooks of astronomy and nuclear physics after 1945, without discussion or debate:

    1. Cores of ordinary stars are NEUTRONS, not hydrogen.

    2. Aston’s “nuclear packing fraction” correctly indicates NUCLEAR STABILITY; Weizsacker’s “average nuclear binding energy” does NOT tell NUCLEAR STABILITY.

    A Journey to the Core of the Sun Chapter 2: Acceptance of Reality

  11. Mervyn

    With the US alone spending over $20 billion per annum in support of the IPCC mantra, is it any wonder that those benefitting from this obscenity will do anything to sustain this largesse… hey, its only taxpayers’ money, right?

    This is now all about a political propaganda, not science. Listen to Obama. Listen to Kerry. Listen to Gore. Listen to Prince Charles. There is absolutely nothing scientific about their comments.

    On the other hand, they don’t want anyone to listen to genuine scientists who doubt the IPCC has got it right, and who back up their views with empirical evidence.

  12. Paul Vaughan

    The sun governs the ocean cycles — for example Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC):

    Solar activity controls both the global base state and the gradients (and hence circulation).

  13. Geologist Sebastian Lüning: Scientific Evi...

    […]   […]

  14. Weekly Climate and Energy News Roundup | Watts Up With That?
  15. Brian H

    The past is the key, so take care of it. It (the record) is being dismembered and ravaged. Obtain and safeguard original data wherever you find it.

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