Leading IPCC scientist Prof Mojib Latif extends the climate warming pause to 2025. Will it ever end?
From Sebastian Lüning’s and Fritz Vahrenholt’s “Die kalte Sonne” site here (translated by P Gosselin):
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Not a week goes by without Mojib Latif appearing in the media. On September 29, 2014 the climate preacher appeared in α-Forum at Bavarian Radio. The pdf of the show is here. Interestingly in the interview Latif extends the warming pause to 2020 and even 2025. That’s another 11 years, which will easily take him well into retirement. Latif is a clever one. What follows is an excerpt from the interview:
BR: Curiously it is indeed despite the rise in greenhouse gases in the atmosphere and also in the seas – we’ll talk more about this in more detail later – the global temperature has not risen lately. How does one explain this?
Latif: Well, this is really nothing unusual. That does not surprise climate scientists like me at all, as for us this is completely normal. When one takes a look at the development since 1900, that is the last 110 years, then we see that it has not always gone up. Rather it has progressed in waves. This is why it is necessary to look at long time periods. If we look at the entire time period, then it is impossible to miss seeing the rise. In 2008 in the journal “Nature” I myself predicted the pause: Back then it created a huge echo in the global media. I’m wondering why all of this seems to have been forgotten in the meantime.
BR: The reaction was also that some said that the thing with climate change indeed could not be so bad if the annual mean temperature also dropped again..
Latif: The reaction went in every direction. The reaction was, as you just formulated: ‘Everything can’t be so bad!’ But there was also great amazement that the temperature rise is not continuing even though greenhouse gases keep rising. In this study I expressly said that it does not mean that it’s all over, but that the temperature increase will rise even faster – starting in 2020, 2025.”
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Latif claims that the pause “does not surprise” climate scientists like himself at all. Yet, 2025 would mean the pause lasting almost 30 years. It’s strange that not a single climate model predicted a 30-year pause. Latif is not surprised that 100% of the models will have been all wrong?
100% wrong? Good, we only have three more to go. In this IPCC report they admit that 111 of 114 models were wrong.
http://www.climatechange2013.org/images/report/WG1AR5_Chapter09_FINAL.pdf
Box 9.2 | Climate Models and the Hiatus in Global Mean Surface Warming of the Past 15 Years
And I hear the 3 guys that got it right are now teaching Catholic HS school Intro to Science.
He claims to have predicted the pause in 2008 – I’m curious as to whether there is a reference for that and what he actually said at the time.
He did. WUWT did a Story on it.
‘Predicting’ the pause nearly 10 years into it Is about as impressive as predicting a stock price drop 6 months after the company declared bankruptcy.
Latif says “In 2008 in the journal “Nature” I myself predicted the pause…”
If the following is what he is refering to I have to point out he used the word “may” which doesn’t sound like a prediction to me. But hey, I’m like that.
He ‘predicted’ the pause in 2008, when it started 8 years before that. It would be more accurate to say that he ‘observed’ the pause. And that he and his climate friends were not surprised by the pause. Well, I guess that doesn’t include ‘it’s a travesty we can’t explain this’ Kevin.
If Latif wants to claim those 110 years, he must also explain how the temperature could rise so much in th early 20th century, when man-made co2 emissions were peanuts compared to today, and why it fell decades alter, when emissions were much larger. It cannot all be coincidence without shredding his belief in the co2 myth. One may wonder whether he still is a believer, or just a wannabe survivor.
Yes, that is the problem. As he says, the warming comes in waves. But, there are two problems with that:
A) the trend plus ~60 year cycle has been around for longer than rising CO2 could account for them
B) When you average out the “wave”, the underlying trend is about 0.75 deg/century, which is not alarming
Latif believes in being on TV and in nothing else.
A total crash of their forecasts does not surprise climate scientists at all. Not if their funding continues.
He speakss of the last 110 years, as if the temp rise since 1900 is all or mostly CO2. This is contrary to the IPCC that says only since 1950 can we see the human, i.e. CO2 signal.
He probably believes that we came out of the LIA because of human-created CO2. But that means a divergent view of the IPCC, which goes back to “consensus”. Therre is not a technical consensus that CO2 is responsible for the post-1950 warming and that the post 2001 standstill is part of a natural variation that existed prior to 2001.
Latif predicts all kinds of things, covers all bases. Was on TV predicting terrible warming, then ocean-cycle related swings, whatever the interviewer demanded. If you would ask him for a prediction you could bet on, he would likely waffle like a politician. Meaning, he is entirely useless as a predictor. Meaning, he has no theory.
About the hypothesis-building of climate scientists – An Algorithm.
In the 70ies temperatures went down so at the end of the decade scientists predicted this would continue into an ice age.
In the 80ies temps went up so in 1988 Hansen predicted this would continue indefinitely.
2014 temperatures are stagnant for more than a decade so scientists predict at least a further decade of stagnation.
With this data we can build a simple Kalman-filter model of a climate scientist that predicts the temperature trajectory predicted by the modeled scientist.
The scientists have evolved this behaviour because it has proven to secure them funding. The scientist will use the funding to produce a computer model that serves to justify the necessary foregone conclusion. That computer model is of course trivial and not subject of serious investigation.
Here is the Hadcrut temperature rise from 1850 to 2014
http://www.woodfortrees.org/plot/hadcrut4gl/from:1850/to:2015
If previous cooling trends continue then expect temperatures to fall beyond 2025 for another 10 years.
German policies are quite mad.
“The biggest irony has been that the energy shift, intended to slow climate change, has driven up carbon emissions for the past two years.
“The problem lies in the fickle nature of renewables. When the sun doesn’t shine and the wind doesn’t blow, conventional power is needed to fill the gap — ideally with relatively clean and flexible gas plants.
“However, utilities — which have taken a beating as a glut of renewables has slashed wholesale power prices — have shuttered some under-utilised gas plants and filled the gap with cheaper and dirtier coal.”
http://news.yahoo.com/off-grid-german-village-banks-wind-sun-pig-133137765.html
All price fixing schemes develop a certain blowback. Just look at the toilet paper situation in Venezuela.
[…] (H/T No Tricks Zone) […]
It was quiet . . . all . . . too . . . quiet . . .
Oh, the suspense is killing me! We better do, . . . some . . . thing?
This is the problem with all these climate change charlatans. They say whatever they want to say and think they can get away with it… and even if it is contradictory, they think it doesn’t matter.
They conveniently ignore their ‘settled science’ – the 2007 IPCC 4th Assessment Report (AR4) – hailed around the globe as “the gold standard in climate science”… incontrovertible!
AR4 was all about those climate model derived charts of rising temperature trends based on various rising CO2 emission scenarios… you know, “the more CO2 there is, the warmer the temperature gets” – the Al Gore mantra.
Well, there certainly has been record increases in CO2 over the last 18 years, yet it has not warmed the atmosphere. And the climate change charlatans have no idea why this is so, although they have not hesitated to suggest 55 possible reasons for the flat temperature trend.
The truth is that Mother Nature has effectively debunked the IPCC’s gold standard report rendering it obsolete.
This whole “pause” is totally trivial. It is simply the AMO/PDO 65 year cycle.
Mr. Latif should have a look at least, if he is too lazy to follow the literature of his own field, at NATURE. Even there is a paper which correctly ascribes the “pause” to the AMO/PDO.. We can ascertain Mr. Latif that the “pause” will last, contrary to his pure knowledge of his own field, until 2035 ( next minimum of AMO/PDO ). Then temperature will go up a little and then drop ( De Vries Cycle ) to the Little Ice Age value of 1870, around 2100.
Since only two cycles: AMO/PDO and De Vries, completely determine our climate changes and both are presently simultaneously at their maxima, the future temperature is simply the mirror image of the past; mirror at year 2000.
No trace of CO2 evidently..