The global warmists are in a disarray vortex. Their science now insists that it is both cooling and warming – at the same time!
In the complex, convoluted and clashing parallel worlds of the global warming alarmists, everything is possible. Physical laws are bent, twisted, completely redefined, or ignored altogether with every passing day.
More of anything proves warming, as so does less of the same.
New paper from Japan forecasts colder winters
Despite the dozens of predictions of warming winters coming from the global warming alarmists just 5 years ago and earlier, they have recently turned on a dime and are now projecting cold, snowy winters because of global warming. This once again is being reiterated in a new Japanese paper and echoed by number one German alarmist site Klimaretter (Climate Rescuers).
Severe winter probability “will double”!
Klimaretter writes:
Global warming is leading to a contradictory effect: Already today the risk of a colder than average winter is higher than it was a few decades ago.”
Later it writes:
And this trend is expected to continue over the coming decades: The probability of more severe winters in Europe and North Asia will double because of climate change. This is what Japanese scientists are projecting in Nature Geoscience.”
Sound Orwellian? For the propagandist Klimaretter, no science is too absurd to believe – so long as it’s catastrophist. If a Japanese paper claims so or if the climate models of the Alfred Wegener Institute and the Potsdam Institute looking 50 years into the future say so, then it’s good enough for them (never mind these models have already got the first 20 years all wrong).
Green energy has stopped global warming?
Not only is global warming now responsible for the higher risk of cold winters, but also the recent warming pause (which proves warming) is now being attributed to a successful green energy revolution. Having a very hard time explaining the recent warming pause to the public and realizing that attributing it to warming is a tough sell to the public, a spooked UK Energy Minister Baroness Sandip Verma has just come up with a better explanation for the unforeseen pause: the green energy revolution is likely already having a cooling effect on the planet and is already saving it (never mind that CO2 concentrations and fossil fuel burning are rising unabated).
Unfortunately Verma’s explanation is just as absurd as the first one.
Medieval witchcraft and rain dancing
It’s increasingly obvious that government officials are becoming embarrassed by the unexpected global warming pause and are desperate to explain it without losing face. Like rain dancers and witches claiming their acts have produced the desired result, British pols are now asking us to believe that the act of erecting windmills and covering rooftops with solar panels has pleased the climate gods – and so the warming has stopped.
The real problem, however, is that the global warming alarmists are no longer able to get their stories straight and are falling over themselves in their panicked scramble to explain their already failed model predictions. While some claim that cooling is caused by a real global warming, others are admitting that the real warming has really stopped, and done so because of the green energies they’ve wisely introduced! The warmists are in disarray.
So it’s little wonder Weather Channel founder John Coleman calls it all “incredible bad bad science” and that Climate Depot calls it “Medieval witchcraft“.
And in the highly improbable event that their half-assed theory proves to be correct, it would be a negative feedback.
So the alarmists still lose.
Paul Homewood has a good post on Barness Verma:
“What has she been smoking to imagine that the UK’s reduction of 16 million tonnes can have had the slightest effect on climate, when the Rest of the World has increased their emissions by 68 times as much?
And, God forbid, this ludicrous woman is actually an Energy Minister! Heaven help us all.”
http://notalotofpeopleknowthat.files.wordpress.com/2014/10/image_thumb98.png?w=780&h=446
She does not even realise she is ‘wrongerer’ than wrong. She must not know that Co2 emissions continue upwards, or she does but thought she would pull that nonsense out of her arse anyway.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Magical_thinking
No credible skeptic is denying that co2 is rising. But there is no evidence showing co2 level EVER influences global warming, neither over geologic periods, nor during the last couple of centuries.
Also, as co2 level increases it’s capability to influence warming (to the minimal extent that is possible) diminishes. Considering that at around 20 ppmv co2 would have already absorbed about 50% of the few narrow sun energy bandwidths available to it, there’s not much energy left at 400ppmv.
co2 is increasing at an annual rate of about 2 ppmv. It’s a trace gas at 400 ppmv. A crowed gym with poor venting is at 1,000 ppmv. Submarine crews survive in environments of 5,000+ ppmv. Plants love the stuff.
gofigure560, they are hanging their hats on water vapour positive feedback loop. It stalled.
“Stalled” makes it sound like it was observed; then stopped. But it never was observed outside computer models.
Gidday NoTricksZone from downunder – I wondered if you caught this news – Germans are so kind that companies might start flocking to the Energiewende –
Australian fuel cell company attracted by the German Energiewende
http://www.warwickhughes.com/blog/?p=3359
I try and check NoTricksZone most days – thanks for all your work –
That technology could be nice for an emergency generator. I was looking into hydrogen fuel cells for that, like campers or boats use. But I don’t want to store hydrogen.
Their target market of installing it as a heat+electricity appliance collides with the makers of combustion engines running on NatGas – Honda and VW for instance, (sold at Vaillant and Lichtblick respectively) – those are not as silent as the fuel cell but get installed in the basement of apartment blocks anyway so can purr away; they’re performance is too high for a single household anyway.
Our “law for combined generation of heat and electricity” ( http://de.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kraft-W%C3%A4rme-Kopplungsgesetz ) subsidizes such solutions. So, there is already competition.
From a strategic view these solutions make a lot of sense, as they harden the grid against failure and reduce transmission losses.
Does anyone know where I can get my bull shit meter fixed? It’s a smoking ruin.
I wish I could give you 100 thumbs up.
I built mine out of high-temperature ceramic! It cracks sometimes but I just put in another tile and I’m good to go.
I had mine set on the highest scale, 500 Mega Barrys, and it still fried.
UK Energy Minister Baroness Sandip Verma is just 1 of hundreds (thousands?) in positions of authority that believe in cAGW even as the meaning of the word global escapes them. The weather – for my garden – has been good this fall (central Washington, USA) and we are thankful. Cold winters are good also as the little critters take a hit. I figure about 1 in 4 or 5 years is good (for things I grow) and 1 is nasty – others are passable. Many folks are thinking colder is at hand. I hope not. The only consolation would be to skewer those types like the Baroness, wherever they may be. As the ice forms on the Arctic Ocean – there goes the argument that open water causes cold winters in Europe. A new explanation will have to be sought. A cold NH winter will be good for the skewering.
And here is what the IPCC themselves say: http://tinyurl.com/q4rtmvf and that http://tinyurl.com/ptgrz34 for good measure
This is from historian Brian Fagan’s “The Little Ice Age” (Basic
Books, 2000):
“As climatic conditions deteriorated, a lethal mix of misfortunes descended on a growing European population. Crops failed and cattle perished by diseases caused by abnormal weather. Famine followed famine bringing epidemics in their train, bread riots and general disorder brought fear and distrust.
Witchcraft accusations soared, as people accused their neighbors of fabricating bad weather…. Sixty-three women were burned to death as witches in the small town of Wisensteig in Germany in 1563 at a time of intense debate over the authority of God over the weather. Witch panics erupted periodically after the 1560s. Between 1580 and 1620, more than 1,000 people were burned to death for witchcraft in the Bern region alone.
Witchcraft accusations reached a height in England and France in the severe weather years of 1587 and 1588. Almost invariably, a frenzy of prosecutions coincided with the coldest and most difficult years of the Little Ice Age, when people demanded the eradication of the witches they held responsible for their misfortunes.”
The UK Tyndall Centre foresaw the problem of the climate not doing the right thing by the IPCC, back in 2004.
This working paper had the answer:
Working Paper 58
“The Social Simulation of the Public Perception of Weather Events and their Effect upon the Development of Belief in Anthropogenic Climate Change”
Dennis Bray and Simon Shackley, (September 2004. Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research).
“As the science itself is contested, needless to say, so are the potential policy changes. So how then do people make sense or construct a reality of something that they can never experience in its totality (climate) and a reality that has not yet manifest (i.e. climate change)?
To endorse policy change people must ‘believe’ that global warming will become a reality some time in the future.
Only the experience of positive temperature anomalies will be registered as indication of change if the issue is framed as global warming.
Both positive and negative temperature anomalies will be registered in experience as indication of change if the issue is framed as climate change.
We propose that in those countries where climate change has become the predominant popular term for the phenomenon, unseasonably cold temperatures, for example, are also interpreted to reflect climate change/global warming.”
You can read more here:
Global Warming – The Social Construction Of A Quasi-Reality
http://scienceandpublicpolicy.org/reprint/social_construction.html
Original Paper at http://multi-science.metapress.com/content/v84152h64m5r36t5/
GLOBAL WARMING: THE SOCIAL CONSTRUCTION OF A QUASI-REALITY?
Journal Energy & Environment,
What colder winters?
http://notalotofpeopleknowthat.wordpress.com/2014/10/28/scientists-discover-it-gets-cold-in-winter/
In all the disputes, what keeps gettting lost is that melting ice, rising temperatures, increasing/decreasing storms etc. are all EFFECTS, not causes. According to the IPCC narrative, there is only one (dominant) cause of recent climate changes: increased CO2.
The only study worthy of pointing fingers is the one that demonstrates by physics the amount of warming that occurs with increased CO2 in the atmosphere. All the modelling and correlation studies are immaterial; they are what you do to convince yourself that CO2 COULD be the cause of WARMING. Actual experiments or attribution studies are the ONLY reason to accept that man-made CO2 is causing the changes of climate that are (said to be) seen.
Which is where the “science” of climate science falls down and the religious belief in the white-coated purveyor of “truth” rises up. And where the warmist is so vunerable: a determined radiative forcing of CO2 is predictive. Each year the CO2 content of the atmosphere goes up; each year the radiative forcing of CO2 must increase temperatures. The more time goes on the higher the increased temperature must be …. unless there is a change in narrative to include a non-considered negative forcing.
We still have several years to go before the disconnect between projections and reality get too big. Already there is the claim that the Southern Hemisphere temperatures have been underestimated: look to the NOAA/GISS global graphs to be adjusted upward, which would bring the global figures more into line with the models. But, should the temps drop as a number suggest, the fight will really be on.
A dispute such as the climate wars will never end through strict technical arguments. Emotion and ideology play too great a role. Emotion and ideology will have to be brought into the fight to end it: some cultural icon will have to denounce the Green religion of climate change.
Doug Proctor
31. Oktober 2014 at 01:07 | Permalink | Reply
“In all the disputes, what keeps gettting lost is that melting ice, rising temperatures, increasing/decreasing storms etc. are all EFFECTS, not causes.”
In a feedback system where perturbations can sometimes be amplified instead of attenuated – in other words, in a CHAOTIC system – you cannot even say that. Literally anything could flip the system over from one “state cluster” to another.