Not only is North America bracing for a possible near record-setting cold blast from the Arctic, but also Siberia has been reporting massive snow cover and widespread cold. It’s only the first half of November and the dead of winter is still two months away!
The CO2 blanket having no effect in Siberia. Image source: earth.nullschool.net729.
This, experts have been warning, bodes ill for the chances of a harsh winter over North America and Europe. Two weeks ago Siberan snow cover and cold was already close to record high levels. That situation has only gotten worse, the Big Wobble Almanac here writes:
Remember how evidence was mounting last month that early snowfall was accumulating across Siberia? And remember how there’s a theory that says this snowfall signals a cold winter? So in the two and a half weeks since, the news for the winter-haters has, unfortunately, only gotten worse.
About 14.1 million square kilometers of snow blanketed Siberia at the end of October, the second most in records going back to 1967, according to Rutgers snow lab.”
There are other signs that Europe could be facing a cold winer, although so far early on it has seen weeks of very mild weather. The online prfire writes:
The first migrating Siberian swans landed in Britain – heralding the belated arrival of winter. Each year around 300 Bewick swans flock to the Wildfowl and Wetlands Trust reserve at Slimbridge, Glos after flying 2,500 from Arctic Russia. This year’s arrival – coinciding with the first cold snap of the season – is the latest for 45 years and more than two weeks ahead of usual. […]
The Bewicks – the smallest and rarest members of the swan family – live in Siberia during the summer. In winter they migrate west – aided by chilling easterly winds – to escape winter temperatures of -25 degrees C.
Bewick’s have migrated to Slimbridge every winter for 60 years and adult swans teach their young the route. Their arrival comes after weather experts predicted the harshest winter in 100 years. James Madden, forecaster for Exacta Weather, said last week: “The worst case and more plausible scenario could bring something on a similar par to the winter of 2009/10. ‘That was the coldest in 31 years, or an event close to 2010/11 which experienced the coldest December in 100 years.'”
35 below isn’t enough!
http://www.daculaweather.com/4_world_extremes.php?extremes=North
“the latest [arrival] for 45 years and more than two weeks ahead of usual.” – the earliest arrival, perhaps?
According to
http://www.wwt.org.uk/wetland-centres/slimbridge/diaries/bewicks-swan-diary/
The first 4 swans arrived on Nov.6 delayed by adverse winds, and warmish weather in western Europe. The latest arrival since 1969 (they’ve been monitored since 1964).
But usually they arrive two weeks later – I am confused.
The birds travel west to escape the cold weather, so if they reach warmer weather there is less sense of urgency. If they are meeting head winds, (and the weather is favourable) then they tarry on the way. Quite sensible, and says nothing about the climate, merely the weather on the way.
The comment about late arrival is based on
Global warming means birds will arrive later…quick issue press release!
Trust the birds…they have been doing this for many years, and have yet to put out a press release.
I agree with the comments above. The statements on the migrating swans arriving the latest in 45 years, yet at the same time two weeks ahead of usual appears incoherent.
Forget about bird migration, what about people?
British Columbia physicians and graduate students are wondering about how to handle the impending influx of Climate Refugees:
https://www.policyalternatives.ca/sites/default/files/uploads/publicatio…
Where are these refugees going to come from, Alberta, Saskatchewan, Minnesota and the Dakotas?
http://www.cbc.ca/news/winter-comes-early-blast-of-cold-air-hits-alberta…
/ sarc off
This link works:
https://www.policyalternatives.ca/publications/reports/preparing-bc-climate-migration
Thank you, Henning!
This one, too:
http://www.cbc.ca/news/winter-comes-early-blast-of-cold-air-hits-alberta-prairies-1.2829612
Kurt:
to clear up some confusion. The birds left Russia early, but found warmer weather on the way in Estonia, Germany and Holland. They don’t all travel to the UK, (thousands overwinter in Germany, 2-4000, and there are more there at moment) and tracking studies have shown that the swans prefer to fly on a north-easterly tail wind on autumn migration. So warmer weather on the way and adverse winds.
The earliest swans arrived in England on Oct. 23 and were reported at Slimbridge on Oct. 27 but apparently someone was a little excited, as they next reported the first arrivals on Nov.6.
There is nothing to stop more birds arriving if the weather in Poland, Germany or Holland get colder. Arrivals and departures are drawn out. In Feb./March departures took over 3 weeks.
So the arrival is slightly later than usual and easily explained by the weather. Descriptions put out by the IPCC of the swans sun baking in the Baltic due to global warming are about as real as their other claims.
Thanks Graeme 3 –
I figured as much after looking at the site covering the wintering grounds at the head of the Severn Estuary. Still, it’d be nice to see the long-term data.
Here’s some more information on the indefatigable Bewick’s swans:
http://www.wwt.org.uk/wetland-centres/slimbridge/diaries/bewicks-swan-diary/
They apparently left their summer breeding grounds on 25 September – it’s not clear whether this is typical or not (but it was about the same date last year). But the journey is long and arduous (over 2500 miles, with several stopovers). These rest stops obviously are important for recuperating as well as feeding up for the rest of the trip.
So the arrival date at their preferred winter roost is probably more a function of the weather and winds encountered en-route than “changing climate” per se. Note also that some individuals choose to winter elsewhere (and that some may prefer to prolong their journey if they encounter mild weather enroute).
But it would appear that the founders of the website have been observing and keeping records for the past 50 years (also including at other sites now, apparently). So if anyone were interested, I am certain they could provide the data.
Whether migration dates and numbers are reasonable proxies for climate is another question. It would of course be interesting to see the changes in dates (also for the return to Siberia) as well as the numbers of individuals (young and old) each year.
I’m wondering whether the actual catalyst for the swans’ journey is something other than the “climate” of the season per se. Perhaps the first cold snap sends them on their way south and west for the winter. Or perhaps it’s a function of daylight. Or maybe a combination of parameters, including wind & rain…
Kurt in Switzerland
Avian appreciation, not really my subject but for what it is worth I’ve always thought it must be something to do with length of daylight – which is ‘a wired in constant’ albeit a diminishing phenomenon – at the present time, it triggers the birds to get moving – west is best.
“Where are these refugees going to come from?” – The Middle East, mainly Iraq and Syria – you can already see the first attempts to blame the unholy mess down there on Climate Change:
http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/wonkblog/wp/2013/09/10/drought-helped-caused-syrias-war-will-climate-change-bring-more-like-it/
http://www.nationalreview.com/corner/358003/global-warming-real-cause-syrian-civil-war-alec-torres
And of course the pundits will have seen it all along in their crystal balls.
@Ulrich:
It is becoming comical! (and yes, tiresome).
The infamous human greenhouse gas is now a “threat multiplier” for various future disasters, thus one’s “climate guilt” may be allayed through regular allotments of “climate penance” to the government-approved agency.
Kurt in Switzerland
These climate refugees are VERY LATE, there should have been 50 million of them in 2010, according to the IPCC. Smithsonian Magazine reports up to one billion refugees:
“There may be hordes of climate refugees, fleeing homes on islands and coasts made uninhabitable by climate change—anywhere from 25 million to 1 billion people by 2050, according to the International Organization for Migration. Even people who don’t have to move will experience a bewildering sense of dislocation as the environment changes around them—as Northern winters start to be measured in weeks rather than months.”
Yes, I’m feeling dislocated and confused right now, can I claim refugee status please? Along with the crowd of warmists, who are refugees from reality?
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2014/04/30/smithsonian-magazine-claim-1-billion-climate-refugees-by-2050/
[…] this morning) but Siberia is also currently experiencing sub-zero temperatures over large areas. 35 Degrees Below Zero And Colder Spreads, Grips 2 Million Square Kilometers Swath Of Central Siberia In the year 2014 the CO2 in the atmosphere has yet to reduce the extreme cold from happening in […]
[…] https://notrickszone.com/2014/11/10/35-degrees-below-zero-and-colder-spreads-grips-2-million-square-k… […]