Climatologists’ Projections Defied…25-Year Trend For German Winters Shows Cooling! …”Snow Has Not Disappeared”

In 2014, Germany and parts of Europe will be seeing their warmest year ever since temperature recording began in earnest late in the 19th century. The media and alarmists are giddy about this, even though most of it is due to a global weather pattern that worked to deliver an almost steady stream of warm southerly air over the continent: especially early this year, over the autumn, and the end of the year. It’s all pattern related.

Moreover, as the warmists like to say when cold strikes, it’s just one year and does not in any way represent a trend.

Not long ago some climate scientists announced winters with snow would be a thing of the past in Europe. Global warming, they said, would be especially noticeable in the wintertime. But then in the late 2000s and early 2010s, a string of harsh winters gripped the old continent and the trend in Germany went downhill: colder and snowier winters.

Veteran journalist Ulli Kulke of Germany’s national daily Die Welt writes at his blog that the tendency over the last two and half decades – since before the first IPCC report was ever issued – has been slight cooling and no warming to speak of. He writes of Germany’s winters:

The winters between 2001 and 2010 were on average 0.1°C colder than the 1991 – 2000 decade. And the winters between 2011 and 2014 were also 0.1°C colder than the 2001-2010 decade. Even if we are talking only about tenths of a degree, the climate discussion is actually all about such magnitudes. So anyone who had the impression of hard winter times was not wrong. The tendency of winter temperatures has been downward over the past two and half decades, and not upwards. […] Snow has not disappeared.”

So with the general winter trend in Germany and Central Europe slightly downward, spooked climate scientists had to scramble to concoct an explanation. Kulke continues:

As the cold winters became undeniable, decisive institutes came up with the original idea of tracing the icy temperatures back to global warming. The reason for this was the disappearing Arctic sea ice around the North Pole. In a press release from the institute, Vladimir Petoukhov of Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research is quoted as having stated concerning a study of his: Disturbances in air currents, caused by the disappearance of ice ‘could increase the probability of the occurrence of extremely cold winters in Europe and North Asia by a factor of three’. In summary: ‘Hard winters such as last year’s or 2005/06 do not contradict global warming, rather they more so confirm it.’“

The Alfred Wegener Institute for Polar and Ocean Research also presented a similar paper. The warming Arctic, Kulke explains, was supposed to alter the pressure difference between the Azores and Iceland, and thus produce more favorable conditions for cold winters to take hold over Europe. Kulke calls the logic behind the theory weak, writing that there’s a lot of controversy swirling around it, especially in view that it was produced after the fact.

Kulke’s piece in general points out that the theories of the global warming scientists are not doing well when compared to real observations. For example he ends his piece with a look at the Arctic and global temperatures:

In addition it is turning out that the Arctic sea ice may increase in size. And as before the time-out taken by the global temperature increase continues on. No one knows how long it’s going to go on, even if this year a high will be reached because of an El Nino.”

Another blow to the models.


12 responses to “Climatologists’ Projections Defied…25-Year Trend For German Winters Shows Cooling! …”Snow Has Not Disappeared””

  1. A C Osborn

    Ha, but Germany is only x% of the World, Climate Scientists are talking “Global”.
    /Sarc off.
    The trouble is it is not just Germany, it is many countries/continents, but it is hidden by the “Quality” adjustments made by the keepers of the data, they will do anything to maintain the myth.
    And the MSM will continue with the Hottest ever meme.

  2. Pops

    Let’s ask Dr Viner for his opinion; he’s an expert on snowfalls…

    1. Jeff Wood

      David Viner deserves to be reminded of that piece, at every opportunity.

      1. Stephen Richards

        He knew it was a lie when he said it. Repeating it just makes him chuckle.

  3. Mark Stoval

    “In summary: ‘Hard winters such as last year’s or 2005/06 do not contradict global warming, rather they more so confirm it.’”

    OK then. If colder winters confirm “global warming” then do warmer winters confirm “global cooling”?

  4. DirkH

    Die Welt recently seems to make efforts to come across as slightly less delusional as the average mainstream. (Not about Ukraine though mind you)

  5. John F. Hultquist

    Disturbances in air currents, caused by the disappearance of ice …

    Anyone making statements like the above should be made to show specific amounts of ice and the related cold temperatures. Ice floating on the Arctic Ocean reaches a minimum in September. The cold appears in Dec. or January when ice cover is quite high and annual extent less variable than in September. As the last day of 2014 begins the Arctic Ocean is essentially ice covered. It is cold in North America, again, as it was last year. I think someone ought to have to explain when and how the “disappearing ice” causes these cold spells. Which September shall we blame this on, 2007 or 2012?

  6. Ole Jensen

    “Disturbances in air currents, caused by the disappearance of ice …”

    Global sea ice just hit a record high…

    And the only temp. readings that could make 2014 hottest ever, are if you use the manipulated land data set, measuring the temp. of airports

    1. DirkH

      Thanks for the notification!

      It’s been 2 years now since I destroyed the Weltanschauung of the last warmist I met in real life. And mind you I do get around in Germany, and I delight in debating people if they’re game.

      So… I see little public support of warmism… yet the journalists STILL go on… today they’re harping about 2014 being the warmest year in Germany evah!.

  7. Bernd Felsche

    A thought. Wishful thinking, perhaps:

    Your grandchildren will never know of climate models.

  8. Mervyn

    I guess the same can be said about the tell-tale conclusive evidence of dangerous man-made global warming according to Nobel Prize winning Al Gore … the melting Polar ice.

    Well, as we now know from the observational data, Polar ice is not melting away as Al Gore proclaimed. It seem, instead, the IPCC’s global warming theory is melting away.

  9. Kim

    The World is actually cooling but the urban heat islands are counteracting this thus maintaining a constant temperature in the heavily populated parts.

    If one is to extract all the human made sources of heat generation and retention – heat islands, warm machinery, traffic, central heating etc. (and this would include any supposedly produced by CO2) then that results in one looking at the weather \ climate in the sparsely populated areas of the world. ie. it results in looking at just the natural effects on the climate. Of course one can go directly to these areas and examine what is happening.

    A good place to look at is the South West of Western Australia (Bunbury and below) – it is sparsely populated, it is away from the more populated Eastern States and it is far away from the heavily populated Northern Hemisphere. As such it provides a good simple measure on what is happening to the world’s climate :-

    * average temperatures down ~1.8’C.
    * frequent cold Antarctic wind. It is most out of place – feels odd.
    * cool springs, late summers. Even Perth has experienced this.
    * Antarctic ice shelf increased massively. No urban heat islands to keep the ice down.

    So the obvious conclusion is – there is no global warming – only a spot of global cooling going on. What is happening in the Northern Hemisphere is purely urban heat island effect.

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