German meteorologist Dominik Jung writes at wetter.net that the first preliminary forecast for Central Europe for the upcoming summer issued by the NOAA does not look very favorable. Expect a “grisly summer”, he writes.
He writes that over the last 10 years spring has generally been on the warm and sunny side, but that Central Europeans have had to pay a price for that by having to put up with wet and variable summer weather.
Models wrong 11 out of 12 years!
Jung then reminds us that the climate models have been very wrong with their 2003 predictions that Central Europeans in the future would have to expect hot, barbecued summers like the one seen in 2003. Back then climatologists warned the public to get used to such summers, as it was all consistent with global warming. Turns out that prediction has been a complete flop. Jung writes:
Do you recall the climate prophets after the hottest and driest summer of all time in the 2003 prophesizing more drought summers? None of that has occurred. Of the 11 summers that followed, 7 were wetter than the long-term mean, i.e. too much rain. Moreover predictions of sustained heat waves failed to come true. Four summers turned out to be almost normal and only one single summer was about 15% too dry. The majority of the past summers saw no large heat waves. It was hot only for a few days, with really cooler days with thundershowers in between.
That could be again the case this year. According to the long-term trend of the US weather service, March and April could turn out to be warmer, sunnier and drier than normal. A few days ago the first trend for the months of June, July, August was calculated by the US colleagues and things don’t look better than the past – in fact it looks a little worse!
This year could be a grisly summer. The US long-term model sees no summer month that will be warmer than the long-term average. All three summer months should be at near normal temperatures and accompanied by more precipitation than normal. August is forecast to be especially wet.”
But Jung warns that these are only long-term projections and that one should not put too much stock in them. Many readers here are aware that the seasonal forecasts made by the US weather services (and those of the UK Met Office) often leave much to be desired.
In fact assuming the opposite would likely be a better prediction.