Yesterday I wrote here about how parts of Europe woke up to snow! Global warming alarmists have been telling us that winters would get milder and that spring would arrive earlier and earlier each year.
For example just two years ago Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK) scientist Friedrich-Wilhelm Gerstengarbe told German ZDF television that spring would be arriving earlier and earlier – because of global warming.
Unfortunately this is turning out not to be the case. The opposite is in fact happening.
Josef Kowatsch and Stefan Kämpfe at the European Institute for Climate and Energy (EIKE) write that spring in Central Europe has been cooling for almost 30 years now – and not warming – and it’s been arriving later and later.
To determine the spring trends, Kowatsch and Kämpfe looked at the mean temperature for February in Germany, which is a country that is ideally situated in Central Europe. Cold and snow at the end of February have a considerable impact on when vegetation starts to blossom. What follows is a chart depicting the February mean temperature for Germany over the last 28 years.
Figure 1: Data from the DWD German Weather Service show that the February trend has been cooling more than 0.5°C per decade over the last 28 years.
Figure 1 does not show any signs of spring coming earlier in Central Europe. The next chart looks at the Germany February trend for the last 22 years:
Figure 2: The 22-year February trend for Germany also shows a marked decline in temperature. Cold weather naturally acts to delay the onset of spring.
Kowatsch and Kämpfe write that if it were not for urban sprawl, the cooling trend would be even more pronounced:
Without population growth, industrialization and urbanization, the temperature measured today in Germany would be about 1°C cooler because almost every weather station is sited near the edge of a city or even in the city or airports. They are benefitting from various warming effects, which we will not look into in this article.”
The Germany February temperature trend for the last 17 years also shows a stark cooling:
Figure 3: Germany February temperature trend over the last 17 years.
Okay, February is only a single month that is crucial in determining how quickly spring in Central Europe gets started. Kowatsch and Kämpfe also posted the DJF winter temperature trend. Here we also see no warming over the last 28 years:
Figure 4: Winter mean temperature trend for Germany. Data taken from the DWD German Weather Service. We should be calling it cooling, and not warming!
How often do the German media show the above charts? Never. Kowatsch and Kämpfe write that the media have been warming-brainwashed, and the data clearly show that “spring has been starting later and later over the past 30 years“.
Not only do the temperature data show spring coming later and later, but so does the vegetation. Kowatsch and Kämpfe at EIKE provide the following chart:
Figure 5: Between 1990 and 2015 the budding of wild goose berries is now happening about 10 days later because the high winter months January and February (blue) have cooled. The green curve shows when the wild goose berries began to blossom, example in 2013 they did not blossom until after 1 April.
An analysis of the month of March in Germany also shows a cooling trend, Kowatsch and Kämpfe have determined:
Figure 6: March mean temperature for Germany has fallen more than a degree Celsius over the last 27 years.
This year February and March have been relatively mild, but Kowatsch and Kämpfe write that they have been near the mean of the last 30 years. They also write that behavior of various animal species also show spring coming later.
They summarize:
Winter and pre-spring have gotten somewhat cooler since the late 1980s, especially February. The temperature trend lines are negative. Therefore the start of spring is currently being delayed and is coming later than the relatively warm 1990s.
Overall the start of spring 2015 is at the mean of the last 120 years and corresponds to claims made in the biological literature, spring literature, and in German spring songs.
After almost 30 years of winter cooling we see: In the open unbuilt areas of Germany, where today there are no longer any weather stations, the following remains valid: Spring awakens in March.
Spring awakens in March as it did 150 years ago at the end of the Little Ice Age.”
Sorry, but this article is terrible.
Please look at the data for yourself:
http://www.dwd.de/bvbw/generator/DWDWWW/Content/Oeffentlichkeit/KU/KU2/KU21/klimadaten/german/download/gebietsmittel/temp__baden-wuerttemberg__jhrz,templateId=raw,property=publicationFile.html/temp_baden-wuerttemberg_jhrz.html
The federal state of Baden-Württemberg for example suddenly shows 10+ degrees for spring, which did not exist before.
We have talked about winter temperature in another post some time ago. This is terrible cherry picking in several ways (region, month, timescale), just terrible!
Your comment is terrible, and your frustration is getting the best of you. Baden Wurttemberg is only a single state within the entire country, and one that has been greatly industrialized over the recent decades. The article is about ALL of Germany and the last quarter century, which have seen no warming – only cooling. If warming were real, you’d see it over the last three decades. Instead we are only finding cooling. The PIk has been wrong so far with their claims spring is getting warmer and earlier.
“Sorry, but this article is terrible. ”
When facts and theory do not agree, so much worse for the facts.
Interesting data. Here in the northeast USA, the late 1880s are known for their severe winters. As is 1934 – this February was remarkably similar to 1934.
The you referred to shows similar data to us:
1884 1.6 8.2 16.1 7.5 8.4
1885 0.2 7.3 16.6 7.8 7.8
1886 -1.6 7.8 16.0 9.8 8.1
1887 -1.8 6.1 17.2 6.3 6.7
1888 -2.2 6.9 15.4 7.3 7.0
1889 -1.9 7.2 16.6 7.1 7.1
1890 -1.2 8.0 15.2 7.2 7.0
1891 -4.1 6.9 15.5 8.4 7.2
1892 0.0 7.0 16.7 8.5 7.8
I’ll check out 1895 some day:
1895 -4.7 7.4 16.5 9.7 7.3
1934 sticks out nicely too. I should check out 1929 too:
1929 -4.6 6.9 16.7 9.9 7.5
1934 -1.9 9.1 16.6 8.9 9.0
2015 was significantly warmer, I wonder how much of that can be Urban Heat Island effect:
2015 1.2
How’s the gooseberry picking in Baden-Württemberg?
Thanks for this!
wild goose berries – I think they should use wine grapes?
Many growers of wine grapes keep records (in Europe this is a long time) of vine progress. I’ve just finished helping a friend prune and some of the vines would weep. Some folks prune earlier (colder) and so do not see this. We also noted buds swelling but we saw only one tiny leaf. Grape flowers are small but walking between rows at flower-time is a nice experience. Wind and rain can reduce pollination so these things are usually noted also. Later in the season there will be the onset of ripening (veraison).
The plants did not obey the orders of the PIK and shall henceforth be amply punished. We suggest bulldozing them to make way for agreeable wind turbines to recreate the eternal harmony of man with nature.
If it worked for Lysenko, it’ll work for “Schelly”
This article is either a lie or an idiotic cherry picking.
Climate is warming also in Europe, as also in the whole world. Last year (2014) was the hottest in record in Europe and in 19 european countries.
http://cib.knmi.nl/mediawiki/index.php/2014_warmest_year_on_record_in_Europe
The 2014 claim is based on filled-in data, which are made up. Even with their made-up data 2014 was a “record” by a statistically insignificant 0.02°C, which even NASA says is only 37% sure. Satellite data, which covers the entire surface, tells a completely different story. Also the modern surface thermometer record has been corrupted by siting issues, urban heat island effect, etc. The data is so shoddy that they can be tortured (Michael-Mann hockey stick style) to say anything the cruncher wants. It’s not a secret any more that climate science is driven by politics. Sadly it will never be trusted again.
The amount of “adjustments” that Gavin had to “invent” to achieve this ” lol warmest ever”. was quite astounding !!
And even then he only managed some tiny insignificant fraction of a degrees, maybe perhaps, or not.
In the untainted RSS, (run by real scientists who, oddly, still ‘believe’ in the gobla warming farce), 2014 was 6th warmest, with an anomaly less than half of that in 1998.
Its is the “2014 was the warmest ever” that is the farce and the lie.
Oh, and did you know, that since the “pristine” USCRN system was established in 2005, the US has cooled at the rate of about 0.5C/decade?
If you have the intelligence, you can download the data from the link below, and prove it to yourself.
http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/temp-and-precip/national-temperature-index/time-series?datasets%5B%5D=uscrn¶meter=anom-tavg&time_scale=p12&begyear=2005&endyear=2015&month=2
Interestingly, even though they are obviously adjusting USHCN to match USCRN (I suspect so they can turn around and say how accurate USHCN is to pretend it was correct before USCRN was established), USHCN since 2005 has been cooling at approximately 0.8C/decade.
“This article is either a lie or an idiotic cherry picking.”
Also, the hailstorms outside your window are just hallucinations induced by your unconscious which is a closet sceptic. Punish yourself with 100 lashes on the back and the hail will go away and make room for seething heat.
I found the last discussion (it was abbout snow cover) again by scrolling back two pages:
https://notrickszone.com/2015/03/01/climate-models-turn-out-to-be-fairy-tales-long-term-central-europe-winters-show-distinct-cooling-trend/
And i did cite this important paragraph back then:
“There is very high confidence that the extent of Northern Hemisphere snow cover has decreased since the mid-20th
century (see Figure SPM.3). Northern Hemisphere snow cover extent decreased 1.6 [0.8 to 2.4] % per decade for March
and April, and 11.7 [8.8 to 14.6] % per decade for June, over the 1967 to 2012 period. During this period, snow cover
extent in the Northern Hemisphere did not show a statistically significant increase in any month. {4.5}”
http://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/assessment-report/ar5/wg1/WGIAR5_SPM_brochure_en.pdf
(page 13 of 33)
Basically the EIKE site is doing the same thing again. They only cite those months, that fit their theory.
Please try to explain the rather strong increase in spring temperature in Germany. This is the relevant result, because it is of statistical significants!
From the relevant figure
“Update of NH March-April average snow-covered area (SCA) from Brown (2000). Values of SCA before 1972 are based on the station-derived snow cover index of Brown (2000); values beginning in 1972 are from the NOAA satellite data set”
The graph then shows such large 95% CI that a straight line fits in nicely.
“There is very high confidence” is a lie.
The Summary for Policy makers is political agenda spam.
You know that, so why be stupid enough to link to it?
This site gives a definition for the start of spring: First day with temperatures above 5°C all day (and night) long.
and it gives dates for the last couple of years.
http://www.wetter.de/cms/wann-kommt-der-fruehling-normalerweise-zu-uns-2bab6-bec2-92-1412978.html
It also uses a different metric for a couple of the last years (first real warm “spring day”, which most of use will see as the start of spring.
In the comments on EIKE, someone provided this link, showing a statistic with start of spring (in days since beginning of the yar) over a longer timeframe.
http://www.biologischevielfalt.de/ind_klimawandel.html
Can anyone explain to me, why we would want to look at a graph starting 28 years ago, if we look at the graph above?
The plants and insects obviously aren’t listening to your arguments; they’re coming out later and later. 28 years is along time to go without warming.
you are right, that is a long period.
and this is real data being used, so the trend also is correct.
There are months, that show a temperature decline over the last 3 deacades and there are months that show an increase of snow cover in the same time frame.
But if we look at spring temperatures, slightly longer timeframes or statistically significant trends, we see a different picture.
“it gives dates for the last couple of years.”
Notice in the plot above that the last two years are above average. You give evidence confirming its validity as a refutation?
From the second link of sod, begin of apple blossom: Website demands climate protection measures to stop even earlier blossoming of apple trees.
THat’s weird. First, if it gets warmer, apple trees blossom earlier, where’s the problem with that?
Second: Their data shows that the 70ies were colder and a later apple blossom than the 60ies. Are they claiming that growing fossil fuel use from the 60ies to the 70ies led to a cooling, and after that, to a warming again?
Just kidding. I’m sure they’re just idiots.
” You give evidence confirming its validity as a refutation?”
I do not doubt, that winter months have become colder if you only look at the last few decades. That is, what the data says.
But why are these months used, to make claims about spring?
Why does the spring data give a opposite result?
You do not have to believe me, just look at the data:
http://www.dwd.de/bvbw/generator/DWDWWW/Content/Oeffentlichkeit/KU/KU2/KU21/klimadaten/german/download/gebietsmittel/temp__deutschland__jhrz,templateId=raw,property=publicationFile.html/temp_deutschland_jhrz.html
A few years ago the BBC used the time the first flowers from daffodils bloomed to prove that Spring is starting earlier and earlier here in the UK. I think they picked daffodils because of the emotional connection people here in the UK have with these beautiful flowers ( I have over 400 daffodils in my garden.)
This year the daffodils did not start flowering earlier than last year, and it was noticeable how the BBC weather forecasters just dropped the topic. If the facts do not fit the theory, just ignore it and keep on using the old and out of date data.
The same applies to polar ice caps, just keep on talking about past observations and ignore the present.
Each year the Royal Botanical Garden Edinburgh produces “The Edinburgh Spring Index”
http://www.rbge.org.uk/science/plants-and-climate-change/edinburgh-weather-station/edinburgh-spring-index
Their chart, started, and based arbitrarily on 2002, shows a trend of spring happening later:-
http://www.rbge.org.uk/assets/files/science/Phenology/ESI2014.pdf
“Over some of the past 12 years early spring has been getting warmer and some spring-flowering plants flowered more than two weeks earlier than usual. However, there have also been later than average years, and the current trend (2014) has a slight positive value (i.e. spring happening later).”
Greetings from New England where I expect today’s 1.5″ (4 cm) of snowpack will be gone today. Usually the end of the longest period of snowcover is the second half of March.
We’re still in Maple Sugaring season and I did a bit of a double-take when I read an article about the oldest sugar shack in the USA.
“We used to start tapping in early February and end in April,” Bolduc recalled, “but this year we tapped on Feb. 26 and did our first boil a month later.” Saturday’s boil was the second this season, said Bolduc, who nonetheless reported that the quality was high, something that Henry Lipman and his daughter Bessie of Laconia testified to enthusiastically.
I had been thinking of hunting down start dates, and may still do so. The last time I read anything about that was a few years ago when the season was over before the maple open house weekend.
Nice to see a matter-of-fact comment about the weather without going into conniptions about the changing climate.
http://www.unionleader.com/article/20150329/NEWHAMPSHIRE02/150329205/0/SEARCH
Here is a trend map, from GISS, since 1990. The continents are largely cooling, especially Europe, Asia, and the eastern half of the U. S.
http://data.giss.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/gistemp/nmaps.cgi?sat=4&sst=3&type=trends&mean_gen=1203&year1=1990&year2=2015&base1=1951&base2=1980&radius=250&pol=rob
That is the winter trend. Most of the warming shows in the Arctic, especially the Canadian Arctic.
And most of that is smeared data from maybe one or two measurements in the one or two towns that happen to be up here.
There used to be a lot of data coming from northern Canada and Russia … all gone now, just the “convenient” ones remain.
Go here, http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/maps/
and play with the dates. Set the map for Trend.
I agree with Ed, play around with the dataset.
you get a stronger trend for spring in Germany;
http://data.giss.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/gistemp/nmaps.cgi?sat=4&sst=3&type=trends&mean_gen=0303&year1=1990&year2=2014&base1=1951&base2=1980&radius=250&pol=rob
This is the mask to enter your data, for comparison look at the data in the Link used by Ed above:
http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/maps/
I admire your persistence to fly in the face of the facts. It is really quite wondrous to behold
I wonder what her intentions are. She should have noticed by now that we won’t become glowing endorsers of subsidizing windmills.
very OT, but I thought some of you might enjoy this little bit of innovation..
https://www.youtube.com/embed/1IV10M1RbEA?rel=0
Awesome machine Andy.
Thank you for posting the link to it.
There actually is a connection between moving trees and the topics discussed here.
These machines were used in Stuttgart, after big protests against a new suburban railway station (“Stuttgart 21”).
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=U6ejDAxkOw0
Deutsche Bahn made a pledge to move all trees, instead of cutting down more. (Stuttgart is the town with the highets amount of respirable dust in Germany, and trees filter this from the air.)
It turned out, that only rather small trees could be moved, as seen in the films. (i learned a lot from this, for example as a rule of thumb, the moved tree will support about as much branches as the amount of roots moved)
One of the long-time Russian “coolists” I guess, Habibullo Abdussamatov, apparently has perked up again. Unfortunately, his papers are usually in Russian, but I can’t find them anyway.
Lawrence Solomon has an article about him claiming that we’re entering a Little Ice Age, see http://business.financialpost.com/fp-comment/lawrence-solomon-global-warming-doomsayers-take-note-earths-19th-little-ice-age-has-begun
You had a post about him a couple years ago at https://notrickszone.com/2013/04/05/russian-scientist-warns-global-temperatures-to-fall-1-5c-by-2050-and-global-cooling-refuges/
So far he hasn’t had to adjust things as much as the IPCC and company have.
A little from the FP:
His latest study, published in Thermal Science, delivers this week’s second whammy. It continues the analysis he has long pursued, which consistently arrives at the same conclusion: Earth is now entering a new Little Ice Age, Earth’s 19th Little Ice Age, to be precise. Abdussamatov has been quite confident of his findings for what might strike some as odd reasons: His science is based on that of the giants in the field — astronomers like Milutin Milankovitch, who a century ago described how tilts in its axis and other changes in the Earth’s movements determine its climate, and William Herschel, who two centuries ago noticed an inverse correlation between wheat prices on Earth and the number of sunspots generated by the Sun’s cycles.
Abdussamatov’s model incorporates the Sun’s 200-year cycles and the feedback effects from greenhouse gases released by the oceans, and sees how they acted on Earth’s previous 18 Little Ice Ages. “All 18 periods of significant climate changes found during the last 7,500 years were entirely caused by corresponding quasi-bicentennial variations of [total solar irradiance] together with the subsequent feedback effects, which always control and totally determine cyclic mechanism of climatic changes from global warming to Little Ice Age.”
If the 19th Little Ice Age follows the pattern of the previous 18, Earth slipped into an ice age in the winter just concluded and will become progressively colder over the next 50 years, reaching its depth around 2060. Another half century, taking us to the 22nd century, and we’ll arrive back at today’s temperatures.
This all accords with what my experience has been over the years – on both sides of the Atlantic. In the 80’s and 90’s it warmed where I was – in accordance with what the Powers That Be were saying about the world in general. But over the last 7 or 8 years it’s gotten appreciably colder. And it’s not just some deceptive perceptual illusion on my part, because my location on the east side of the Atlantic has gotten modest but definite snowfalls over the past 5 years, in stark contrast to winter weather 13-14 years ago, which was just wetter than other seasons. So, rather than deciding that the part of the world I’m located in has somehow detached itself from the world climate system, I find it simpler to believe that the world is actually cooling. (But it is nice to see hard evidence to back this up.)