New Paper On Atolls: “There Has Been A 7.3% Increase In Net Island Area Over The Past Century”!

What else can be said about all the doom and gloom nonsense from UN scientists surrounding the atolls and sea level? A new paper that is just out should make them red with embarrassment.

This new paper tells us that the atolls are doing just fine and are gaining in area! Read the paper’s abstract that now follows.

Coral islands defy sea-level rise over the past century: Records from a central Pacific atoll


The geological stability and existence of low-lying atoll nations is threatened by sea-level rise and climate change. Funafuti Atoll, in the tropical Pacific Ocean, has experienced some of the highest rates of sea-level rise (∼5.1 ± 0.7 mm/yr), totaling ∼0.30 ± 0.04 m over the past 60 yr. We analyzed six time slices of shoreline position over the past 118 yr at 29 islands of Funafuti Atoll to determine their physical response to recent sea-level rise. Despite the magnitude of this rise, no islands have been lost, the majority have enlarged, and there has been a 7.3% increase in net island area over the past century (A.D. 1897–2013). There is no evidence of heightened erosion over the past half-century as sea-level rise accelerated. Reef islands in Funafuti continually adjust their size, shape, and position in response to variations in boundary conditions, including storms, sediment supply, as well as sea level. Results suggest a more optimistic prognosis for the habitability of atoll nations and demonstrate the importance of resolving recent rates and styles of island change to inform adaptation strategies.”

Don’t you just love it when observational data clash with hysterical crystal ball model projections?

9 responses to “New Paper On Atolls: “There Has Been A 7.39 Increase In Net Island Area Over The Past Century”!”

  1. John F. Hultquist

    Some used to say, so I’m told, that one false prediction would nullify an hypothesis. It seems Polar bears are not extinct but the hot-spot is. The Arctic ice death spiral seems to have stopped but plants grow better than ever. Alternative green-energy is only a few years from replacing carbon-fuels and that never seems to change.
    Atolls are doing fine but CAGW also seems to be doing fine.
    Expect someone from ‘the Team’ to be along to explain this in 3, 2 ,1 ….

  2. DirkH

    “Some used to say, so I’m told, that one false prediction would nullify an hypothesis.”

    That applies only in science, not in organisational fraud.

  3. Hans Erren
  4. Ed Caryl

    The Funafuti tide gauge has data from November 1977 to November 2001. It shows a rise of 2.28 mm/year. The GPS data for that gauge shows a subsidence of 0.21 mm/year, for a total of 2.07 mm/year sea level rise. Some of that rise is due to a declining trend in ENSO. Where did they get their data for this paper?

  5. cementafriend

    Ed, maybe your date is out the Seaframe project started around 1992 try this report for the year 2010 to 2011. It gives a history of sealevel and other climate data. Not that the BOM explanation can be fully trusted but the data is there for your own analyses.
    There have been reports about other islands in the pacific. specifically there was a lengthy report on Tuvalu showing increased size of the islands and a problem of draw down of the fresh water reservoir under the island from too many people and wells.

    1. Ed Caryl

      There are two tide gauges, Funafuti A and Funafuti B. The longer data set is Funafuti A, which is the one I used above. The shorter is Funafuti B, which is the SeaFrame gauge. The shorter data set shows a much larger rate of rise, about 3.7 mm/year, because the El Niño in 1998 reduced the sea level by 250 mm for over a year, distorting the rate. You can find all the data at:

  6. cementafriend

    Sorry Ed, can not find Funafuti in your reference. For those that do not know Funafuti is the main atoll and capital of Tuvalu. It has an airstrip. I read a book about the Glibert & Ellis Islands when i was a boy so have an interest , also a person I know wrote a book of fiction about Tuvalu and a court around the islands sinking because of sea level rise which is not occuring. I can not find all the papers on Tuvalu and sea level. I think there was one from scientists in NZ which had photos and geologicaal data. Willis Eschenbach wrote a paper in Energy & Environment July 2004 and had a post at WUWT in 2010. I have a MSWord copy of another paper by Willis the title is
    Willis Eschenbach
    Tuvalu Not Experiencing Increased Sea level Rise.
    Unfortunately there is no date and I do not know the source. It has 19 pages, with photos (new and old) maps & a considerable number of references. It seems the date (from references) is around 2010. Willis even quotes Darwin.
    I have another MSWord article from authors AusAid (which has a disclaimer that views those of the authors) it is dated 2007 and quotes Seaframe data.
    You can ask Pierre for my email address. I appreciate your posts here but as a professional engineer with experience in heat & mass transfer do not always agree with your interpretations. I know that AGW is a scam and is based on false assumptions.

  7. cementafriend

    Ed, my memory suddenly came good the book I mentioned was written by (Sir) Arthur Grimble and was called a “Pattern of Islands.” I had the spelling of the Ellice Islands incorrect above. The Gilbert Islands are now Kiribati and the Ellice Islands Tuvalu. It seems (looking at internet) that Darwin was at Funafuti and sank a bore at the request of the Royal Society to determine the composition.

  8. cementafriend

    Pierre, my comment did not get up is it trapped in spam? can’t remember exactly what I wrote except I mentioned Willis Eschenbach and the book about the Gilbert and Ellice islands and an article by some NZ authors. I offered Ed my email address through you.

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